The market's strange reaction to today's news has been very tricky to read. It looks like there is a broadening pattern here on the 1H timeframe suggesting yet another indecisive move from traders today. What seemed like a potential retest of Friday's lows turned into breaking $5,500 by mid day. The first swing lower was outbought on the trade up. Not sure what to expect for the rest of the day, but I think it's good to stay away from the indices today.
- Frank

[VIP Trade Example]

BOUGHT GOLD UPDATE (Entered 10+ days ago)
📈 Bought at: 2472.47 [Floating in profit!]
🚫 Stop: 2499.99 (Trailed into profit!)
🎯 Target: N/A

ANALYSIS
Patience is finally paying off on this one. With today's breakout close on the 4H chart, I am finally able to trail stops into profit just behind this 4H level of support.
Slowing economic data + expected rate cuts keep me bullish on gold until something changes.

🙏

- Nick

Although this trade took time to play out, we're finally starting to see a break on gold. The risk to reward on this one was too sweet to miss!

Get our latest trading signals in our VIP room.

Use code TGVIP for 30% OFF:
https://a1trading.com/vip/

Have questions? Want to pay with crypto? Want to see our track records?
Chat us here: https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80

Gold has hit 27 (and potentially 28 today) new all time closing highs on the daily chart in 2024.

Reminder: all time highs are often bullish.

Each 📈 represents a new all time closing high.

Gold up ~23.5% YTD!

With CPI posting the biggest drop this year, down to 2.5%, the Fed may be feeling some relief from inflationary pressures mounted from a cooling jobs market. The put/call ratio has turned away from fear to more of a neutral grade after the momentous turnaround yesterday.

Small caps are reading a +2 neutral score on the EdgeFinder, but may be looking at higher scores in the future. With the anticipation of lower rates this month, the RUSSELL might be an out performer out of all the US indices as borrowing costs weigh heavily on the index's price. Alleviating some of that pressure with the indication of further cuts (about 250 basis points by end of next year) may cause more demand for the index.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

The sleeper trade for the rest of the year and even into 2025 might be gold as yields fall, CPI drops, and labor cools. Regardless of a hawkish or dovish cut in September, the dollar will likely decline in value as we move away from tight monetary policy.

Although there is a lot of consolidation, price has managed to punch in higher moves eventually and may continue to do so. It may not look as exciting as the stock market, but it seems like a safer bet than hoping stocks break all time highs and continue to become overvalued.
-Frank

NVDA saved the market yesterday posting over an 8% gain on the day after CEO of the company Jensen Huang said there is "incredible demand" for the chipmakers. Inflation data showed relief in CPI and PPI this morning and has likely set the tone for the rest of the week.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

Award-Winning CFD Broker | Vantage Markets

🎖️ Tight spreads & low commissions
⚙️ Trading Tools such as MT4, MT5 and TradingView
✅ Regulated by ASIC, FCA, CIMA

Sign up today!
Terms & Conditions apply

Retail is now heavily short SPX and GU, but they are long NASDAQ, DOW, RUSSELL and Gold. More of the same mixed sentiment coming from the crowd today.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

Heavy selling on the retail side for the S&P 500 index. COT does remain steady, but traders might have decided that the tech market looks better than the broader index.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

The trend lower may finally continue after this month's report. Inflation fears have probably subsided for the most part now that CPI y/y is only 0.5% away from it's 2% Fed target.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

Good morning ☕️

- Nick

Gold is flying high on rate cut expectations now pricing in a potential 50 BP cut...

Trailing stops and chilling. EZ Friday!

- Nick

Last day. Come join!

Get 30% off our VIP membership with code TGVIP here: https://a1trading.com/vip/

Have questions? Want to see trade examples or our track record? Want to pay with crypto?

CHAT US HERE: https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80

Keep this in mind when going into next week. More heavy buying of the yen and dollar, heavy selling on NIKKEI, USOil and many currencies other than dollar. Slight bearish readings on SPX and NAS, buying on DOW and RUSSELL. SPX and DOW near all time highs as we approach Fed meeting next week.

May be bullish leaning going into Wednesday's Fed rate decision. Odds are 49/51% on a 50 bp or 25 bp cut (essentially a toss up). Thinking that a 50 bp cut would actually be more bearish because it indicates the Fed needs to play catch up on saving the jobs market. 25 bp means that the Fed is not as worried and could be perceived as bullish.
-Frank

After checking the Fed watch tool, now the majority thinks we are cutting by 50 bp. That's not a good sign. That could mean investors think the Fed waited too long to cut rates and the job market is at a greater risk of recession.

Small caps are still favored to the bullish side by the EdgeFinder due to the increased chance of a greater interest rate cut than originally expected. US indices could be bullish going into the rate cut decision, but cutting by 50 instead of 25 basis points is not necessarily a good sign.

This shows that the Fed might have been too slow to cut and they need to step in to save the jobs market. The put/call ratio is neutral with AAII sentiment declining each week for the past four weeks. This is seasonally the worst month for small caps as well suggesting an average of a 1.52% decline.


Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial

Tech stocks hit resistance around a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe and is looking to break above. Right now, it looks like we could be setting up for a potential reversals, but it depends on how the market closes today.

There are concerns over China's economy slowing down and hurting demand for business in the tech and energy market. This is on top of an heavier than expected Fed rate cut and a reversion of the yield curve. It's impossible to tell if a bearish move is coming, but it does seem like the upside is limited as chip stocks will have a harder time justifying all time highs on the NASDAQ again.