NASDAQ
Tech stocks rise after CPI came in as expected which was a drop of 0.4% from last month. This is the hardest drop in inflation we have seen all year likely due to oil prices tumbling hard. Core CPI rose by 0.1% above expectations which could cause a muted reaction to the data. The index may look to test the higher trend line on the 1D timeframe eventually, but upside seems limited. -Frank

Gold
Gold is somewhat trapped inside a channel near the highs. The latest CPI rollout might not be very bullish for the metal, but it might also be not as bearish either. The rate cut is expected this month, mixed inflation data will probably keep gold price from moving higher until we get to FOMC.
- Frank

UJ seems to be rebounding off a double bottom on the 1D timeframe today, but lower inflation resulting in a stronger dollar remains in question. Depending on how this candle closes today could suggest whether or not the pair will retest resistance around 143.4s or if we touch the double bottom again.
- Frank

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The market's strange reaction to today's news has been very tricky to read. It looks like there is a broadening pattern here on the 1H timeframe suggesting yet another indecisive move from traders today. What seemed like a potential retest of Friday's lows turned into breaking $5,500 by mid day. The first swing lower was outbought on the trade up. Not sure what to expect for the rest of the day, but I think it's good to stay away from the indices today.
- Frank

[VIP Trade Example]

BOUGHT GOLD UPDATE (Entered 10+ days ago)
📈 Bought at: 2472.47 [Floating in profit!]
🚫 Stop: 2499.99 (Trailed into profit!)
🎯 Target: N/A

ANALYSIS
Patience is finally paying off on this one. With today's breakout close on the 4H chart, I am finally able to trail stops into profit just behind this 4H level of support.
Slowing economic data + expected rate cuts keep me bullish on gold until something changes.

🙏

- Nick

Although this trade took time to play out, we're finally starting to see a break on gold. The risk to reward on this one was too sweet to miss!

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Gold has hit 27 (and potentially 28 today) new all time closing highs on the daily chart in 2024.

Reminder: all time highs are often bullish.

Each 📈 represents a new all time closing high.

Gold up ~23.5% YTD!

With CPI posting the biggest drop this year, down to 2.5%, the Fed may be feeling some relief from inflationary pressures mounted from a cooling jobs market. The put/call ratio has turned away from fear to more of a neutral grade after the momentous turnaround yesterday.

Small caps are reading a +2 neutral score on the EdgeFinder, but may be looking at higher scores in the future. With the anticipation of lower rates this month, the RUSSELL might be an out performer out of all the US indices as borrowing costs weigh heavily on the index's price. Alleviating some of that pressure with the indication of further cuts (about 250 basis points by end of next year) may cause more demand for the index.

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The sleeper trade for the rest of the year and even into 2025 might be gold as yields fall, CPI drops, and labor cools. Regardless of a hawkish or dovish cut in September, the dollar will likely decline in value as we move away from tight monetary policy.

Although there is a lot of consolidation, price has managed to punch in higher moves eventually and may continue to do so. It may not look as exciting as the stock market, but it seems like a safer bet than hoping stocks break all time highs and continue to become overvalued.
-Frank

NVDA saved the market yesterday posting over an 8% gain on the day after CEO of the company Jensen Huang said there is "incredible demand" for the chipmakers. Inflation data showed relief in CPI and PPI this morning and has likely set the tone for the rest of the week.

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Retail is now heavily short SPX and GU, but they are long NASDAQ, DOW, RUSSELL and Gold. More of the same mixed sentiment coming from the crowd today.

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Heavy selling on the retail side for the S&P 500 index. COT does remain steady, but traders might have decided that the tech market looks better than the broader index.

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The trend lower may finally continue after this month's report. Inflation fears have probably subsided for the most part now that CPI y/y is only 0.5% away from it's 2% Fed target.

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Good morning ☕️

- Nick