Gold is currently our top bullish reading on the EdgeFinder, driven by several economic and monetary factors. The metal has become increasingly attractive, especially with a slowing jobs market and persistent inflation. With unemployment at 4.3%, it could take several months of stronger NFP data to bring the rate back below 4%.
If unemployment continues to rise and CPI remains elevated, we could be looking at a very appealing gold market as a hedge against a declining stock market.
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If unemployment continues to rise and CPI remains elevated, we could be looking at a very appealing gold market as a hedge against a declining stock market.
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Tech stocks have been relatively unchanged over the past two days, facing resistance on the daily timeframe that requires bullish momentum to overcome the bears. A lower CPI reading could bring some relief to the market, aligning with recent jobs data.
However, if CPI comes in higher than expected, it would indicate a lack of progress toward the 2% inflation target, while job losses continue. This could lead to an emergency rate cut by the Fed to support the labor market, but at the cost of reduced leverage against inflation—a bearish scenario for stocks.
However, if CPI comes in higher than expected, it would indicate a lack of progress toward the 2% inflation target, while job losses continue. This could lead to an emergency rate cut by the Fed to support the labor market, but at the cost of reduced leverage against inflation—a bearish scenario for stocks.
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This pair is currently correlated with the 2-year bond yield and the stock market, an unusual situation where these assets are moving in tandem. Recently, the COT report showed a significant shift, with a major reduction in short positions on the yen and selling pressure on the USD.
A higher CPI reading on Wednesday is likely to impact this pair in the same way it affects the stock market. Typically, higher inflation benefits the dollar, but this time, it could signal an immediate rate cut to address the weakening jobs market.
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A higher CPI reading on Wednesday is likely to impact this pair in the same way it affects the stock market. Typically, higher inflation benefits the dollar, but this time, it could signal an immediate rate cut to address the weakening jobs market.
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Rapid Fire NAS100 Technical Analysis
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Gold broke above the strong resistance zone on the 1D timeframe as PPI came in lighter than expected. Falling producer prices could be foreshadowing a lower CPI number tomorrow which would match expectations. Either way, falling CPI or rising CPI, gold still seems like a good hedge against the stock market and the dollar. Because we are expecting rate cuts anyways, gold will likely see demand over the dollar. If CPI is higher, the stagflation issue will be brought back up, and gold will likely be in a perfect bullish scenario.
-Frank
-Frank
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The tech index is testing resistance in the $18,700s range on the 1D timeframe on its initial reaction to lower PPI numbers. Unlike gold however, stocks will need to see lower CPI tomorrow in order to find more demand to the upside. If it’s higher, NAS will likely drop on the stagflation issue. Watch for a break above the falling trend line if we come up to test it because this could be the opportunity to ride prices near the highs again. If it’s higher, watch for a test back towards the 200 DMA.
-Frank
-Frank
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Dollar yen drops this morning as the market opens up in the New York Session. The 2 year yield is dropping hard this morning too indicating a newly formed divergence between stocks and yields. Lower inflation data is likely going to continue to put pressure on yields which in turn could negatively affect UJ.
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PPI Came Out Lower Than Forecast Today, CPI Tomorrow Comes Out...
Anonymous Poll
56%
Lower Than Forecasted
26%
Higher Than Forecasted
19%
As Expected
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DXY Daily Chart:
Dollar index breaking another key level of support here as inflation data comes in largely cooler than expected this week.
This sets up a pretty clear runway for the fed to begin cutting rates in September.
Currently it is a toss up between a 0.25% reduction in the federal funds rate, and a larger cut of 0.50% reduction.
We'll see! I am staying dollar bearish.
- Nick
Dollar index breaking another key level of support here as inflation data comes in largely cooler than expected this week.
This sets up a pretty clear runway for the fed to begin cutting rates in September.
Currently it is a toss up between a 0.25% reduction in the federal funds rate, and a larger cut of 0.50% reduction.
We'll see! I am staying dollar bearish.
- Nick
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The SPX500 is now showing the strongest bullish reading among all indices, driven by heavy retail short positions and a clear uptrend. The recent CPI y/y drop to 2.9% was a significant psychological breakthrough, marking the first dip below 3% in some time—a positive sign. However, other metrics require attention. Core CPI and CPI m/m met expectations but were higher than last month’s figures, indicating that inflation may not be trending lower. Since Core CPI is a key indicator for the Fed, the overall results are mixed. With inflation potentially less of a concern, focus shifts to labor data, including NFP, unemployment rates, and wage growth, which will need to show improvement. The SPX500 is also approaching a strong resistance level near a falling trend line and the 50 DMA on the daily chart. -Frank
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