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The S&P is still about 3.5% from the all time highs of July 16. With plenty of earnings this week, markets are expected to move. I bet on volatility either way may be the play traders are looking for. The Fed remains uncertain as well; they could potentially reverse the idea of a rate cut in September if inflation levels are still in question.
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The NASDAQ could come back to test resistance around $19,500 if the bounce is strong enough. However, the sell-off might not be over, and the index could drop to around $18,480, where there is clear support.
Sandwiched between these key levels, investors are eagerly awaiting clues from the FOMC this Wednesday. While a rate cut this month is unlikely, price behavior will largely depend on whether Powell expresses confidence in a downward inflation trend, forecasts a cut later this year, or indicates a willingness to cut rates for consumer relief. -Frank
Sandwiched between these key levels, investors are eagerly awaiting clues from the FOMC this Wednesday. While a rate cut this month is unlikely, price behavior will largely depend on whether Powell expresses confidence in a downward inflation trend, forecasts a cut later this year, or indicates a willingness to cut rates for consumer relief. -Frank
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Indices are losing ground on the EdgeFinder, except for the DOW, which remains bullish. However, a slight bounce from the lows is not yet a promising sign. In a potentially bearish environment, even blue chips are not impervious to the sell-off.
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Now that retail investors are no longer short on US indices, it could indicate that the sell-off may continue post-FOMC. Additionally, retail is short on USD.
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COT data reveals some confusion in market sentiment. While the S&P saw an increase in long positions, the NASDAQ, RUSSELL, and DOW all experienced selling. This appears to indicate a rotation away from speculative plays. However, if both the DOW and small caps were sold off last week, it could suggest a broader rotation away from the stock market altogether.
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With NFP at the end of the week, there are a few things to consider. Depending on what the Fed says or doesn't say, jobs data could end up being the market mover this week and next. If we get an indication of a cut this year or more of the same sentiment from the Fed, strong NFP data could propel stocks higher. But if Powell indicates less confidence in a rate cut, NFP might not be as impactful since the Fed would not be ready to cut regardless of jobs and inflation data.
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NAS100 is stuck between two significant levels of support and resistance. It seems that price is trying to recover from the pullback of around 9% from the highs as we close out the month. However, we may not see a directional move until tomorrow through Friday when we have FOMC Wednesday and NFP on Friday. Depending on what the Fed says this week (talks of rate cuts, or talks of no rate cuts), we could see either a good dip buying opportunity or a continuation lower to complete the move down to the $18,400s. -Frank
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Gold is in a similar situation to NAS and the US indices as we approach the Fed conference tomorrow. Being 5% off the highs, the metal could either work its way lower to the bottom of this sideways channel or break back above the top. We would need to hear dovish clues from Powell tomorrow such as talks of a rate cut this year or confidence in inflation coming down.
-Frank
-Frank
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An important pair to watch is UJ which is usually correlated to the short term bond yields US02Y. Unlike gold and indices, a bullish indicator would be of less confidence from the Fed or no talks of rate cuts this year. Price bounced from a strong support level and is looking to work its way back to the highs. There is also a chance that the pair will fail to rally and test the support level again. We can most likely expect volatility without direction until FOMC happens.
-Frank
-Frank
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💡 If an online personality in the trading space doesn't show you broker logins / live executions on regulated accounts, don't waste your time learning or buying from them.
It is so easy for someone to fake profits and a luxurious lifestyle. And truthfully— its much easier for them to sell their courses, signals, etc when they are promoting the idea that trading is an easy way to make money.
It is much harder to sell the reality of trading— its not easy! It takes time, effort, and capital to make significant returns. We are often dismissed by new traders who prefer to believe the influencers who make it look easy.
There is no easy way of making money. If there was, everyone would be doing it! It is certainly possible to become successful in trading. However, it is important to remember that theres no way to get there without putting in the effort!
🚀 Keep up the good work!
& be sure to follow @forexxjamess
It is so easy for someone to fake profits and a luxurious lifestyle. And truthfully— its much easier for them to sell their courses, signals, etc when they are promoting the idea that trading is an easy way to make money.
It is much harder to sell the reality of trading— its not easy! It takes time, effort, and capital to make significant returns. We are often dismissed by new traders who prefer to believe the influencers who make it look easy.
There is no easy way of making money. If there was, everyone would be doing it! It is certainly possible to become successful in trading. However, it is important to remember that theres no way to get there without putting in the effort!
🚀 Keep up the good work!
& be sure to follow @forexxjamess
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Dow Jones Daily Chart:
Despite todays heavy selling in technology, value stocks (like the ones that make up the dow jones) seem to be holding up very well.
Support at the 40,000 level seems to be holding for US30.
However - Microsoft earnings report in about 2 hours, which will likely cause volatility for all indices as markets weigh how strong forward earnings are expected to be.
- Nick
Despite todays heavy selling in technology, value stocks (like the ones that make up the dow jones) seem to be holding up very well.
Support at the 40,000 level seems to be holding for US30.
However - Microsoft earnings report in about 2 hours, which will likely cause volatility for all indices as markets weigh how strong forward earnings are expected to be.
- Nick
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