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Gold, 4H Chart:

Price breaking out - nearing nominal all time highs! Congrats to fellow bulls.

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Gold still sits at a +9 strong bullish signal as we approach Powell's speech this morning. Investors are looking for any indication on when interest rates will fall and will be listening keenly on his wordage towards monetary policy.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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Markets are very much unfazed by that failed attempt to assassinate the former president on Saturday. All indices are steadily higher this morning which goes to show that the attempt did not have a considerable impact on prices.

The odds of a Trump victory have increased post Saturday's event. The tech index looks to retest the level from Thursday that had led to an eventual 2% decline in one day for the NAS. Analysts are now pricing in three rate cuts for the year, after we had expected maybe one.

IWM shares are up over 2.3% today after analyst expectations shift from one to three rate cuts this year. The score is still neutral, however, as the bias slowly creeps into the bullish camp. It's likely that Powell will not say anything new about interest rates, but investors listen anyways for clues.

Small caps are more sensitive to rates than the mega cap indices as borrowing costs tend to affect the smaller companies before larger ones with lots of cash. If Powell says anything dovish, this index will likely rally.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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Retail is now short the NASDAQ and the SPX500 along with the dollar. AUDUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are now the top three short USD pairs.

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COT shows another shift as smart money is selling NAS and SPX which may have prompted the Thursday sell off. Russell is the only US index that shows a positive number for weekly change.

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Yields are really tumbling on looser monetary policy expectations. Current yields have been under the 8 day moving average since July 4th indicating that a stronger trend to the downside could happen in the coming months.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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The 10 year yield continues to suggest weakness in the market as interest rate forecasts are now expecting 3 rate cuts this year starting in September, then November and December. If the yield can fall under this level of support around 4.16%, we could see bond prices catch more demand to the upside. -Frank

SPX500 is still testing the highs for the fifth day in a row. Either price will breach the resistance point or reverse lower to a range within this wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe. If it reverses, we could find support around $5,500. A break higher could lead to another run up to the $5,800s where the top of another long term trend line meets price.
-Frank

Gold Daily Chart (VIP Trade Update)

- Gold breaking all time highs, stops trailed just behind previous resistance (now support)

- Nick

P&L

Gold's historical score on the EdgeFinder this year, for those who enjoy backtesting - check this out!

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We are getting a counter reading from the EdgeFinder for UJ which is now a -7 even though price is in a strong uptrend. The reason for this is due to mostly fundamental factors suggesting a weaker dollar in the coming months. With three rate cuts forecasted this year, price fell substantially in the past few days. We need to look for another break below this trend line on the 1D timeframe to help confirm a reversal in price.
-Frank