Lesson learned— Stick to YOUR strategy 🏆

It's not about this 1 trade, its about the next 1000. A great blackjack player doesn't bet anything on their next hand, they have to let their edge play out over many many iterations. Same in trading.

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Stopped out on Bitcoin!

Not every trade is a winner.

I will look for a better entry if price begins to find support / breakouts.

- Nick

This week was a big week for traders anticipating rate cuts.

We saw jobs materially slow (NFP revisions + unemployment rate ticking up were the key here), PCE & PPI are showing signs of inflation cooling, and it's an election year in the US, EU, and UK (as well as others).

However - CPI is coming up, and will really nail in rate cuts, or push them back.

In my view, metals look good currently in either scenario...

If we see a slide in CPI lower, rate cuts will come sooner and a continued selloff in the dollar would be strong for gold.

However, if we see CPI tick up or disobey the rest of the data... concerns about stagflation may flair up again, also good for gold.

The market is smart, and already knows this. I believe that's part of the reason why gold rallied so strong the last few days.

Jobs starting to slide is only good news if inflation goes with it!

- Nick

AUDUSD is the strongest Bullish reading on the EdgeFinder at +11. Almost every metric points towards Aussie strength over the dollar. CPI was higher for AUD, so it currently has a positive score on the pair. However, this could change come Thursday.

A major reason AU is seeing more bullish demand could be due to the fact that RBA kept rates unchanged in their last bank meeting. Meanwhile, there are high hopes for a 25 bp cut in the US in September.

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We are now entering the turning point in quantitative tightening around the world. A global drop in CPI from 2022 has many banks looking to cut if they haven't done so already. The reason gold has struggled to move is likely due to the dollar waiting longer than the rest to cut.

However, looking forward, it seems that these rates are going to be lower. And this trend will continue for the next few years. Once gold gets confirmation from the Fed that they're cutting regardless of the economic condition, it should be bullish for gold.

Seeing strong biases against the dollar on both sides is very telling. Regardless of ECB's decision to cut rates, a handful of factors point towards a bullish euro. The dollar seems to be more sensitive to sentiment driven factors such as CPI.

If we get signs of cooling inflation, the EU bulls will be happy. If inflation looks sticky or ticks higher, it will add to the rate cut uncertainty in September.

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NASDAQ 1D Chart:

Price still looks very strong overall, with technology continuing to lead the way.

If price pulls back, I may look to add to my technology exposure.

- Nick

Retail is majority long the dollar which is a sign that the dollar will be weaker. Indices are mixed with gold while oil is getting bought by the crowd.

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A Smart Money study suggests that both institutions and retail are pulling out of the euro. This is not a good sign for the EU pair which is currently a strong bullish bias on the EF.

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This CPI study shows us the trends in Europe and US over the past 3 years. Although both inflation rates could be experiencing sticky behavior, the US is struggling to dip under 3% inflation unlike Europe.

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New trading desk / recording setup!

- Nick

S&P 500
Markets push higher as we approach CPI data on Thursday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak today and tomorrow as well. More questions about the economy and the Fed’s policy for the rest of the year will likely not be answered by Powell. He has remained extremely vague and neutral to the data to avoid any market stir, but investors are anticipating a Fed cut this September.

Gold
Gold works its way higher and nears the all time highs while Powell testifies. There is lots of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates regardless of where inflation sits and where it’s projected. Regardless of the reason to cut, gold will likely see some bullishness from investors due to a weaker dollar.

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GBP/USD
Will one cut even do anything for the US economy? No, probably not. I think what investors want to see is the start of the cutting trend so we can anticipate lower rates in the next few years. The BoE, on the other hand, is now at 2% inflation and still won’t cut. The pound looks stronger than the dollar right now. GU has closed above a strong, long-term wedge pattern.

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