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July is an historically bullish month for stocks according to our seasonality scanner, so the melt up may not be over quite yet. We're about to enter the second half of the year after a red hot stock market. Growing concerns about interest rates will continue to put pressure on stocks, but it might not be enough to break the market until we see a fundamental shift from the Fed/CPI. Now that we are at this level, it is probably time to start thinking of getting more defensive on our positions going forward. Q3 and 4 could be very turbulent as we approach the presidential election and more FOMCs to come -Frank

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The heavy tech index's score dropped by one point today after retail gets a little more bullish on the index. July is historically a bullish month for the stock market, so we might see some more of this melt up in Q3.

However, investors need to brace for what may come next. Especially if we see a rate cut this year, the economy is poised to get significantly weaker. Stubborn inflation has not moved sub-3% YTD. If a cut happens this year, how can the Fed justify lowering prices?

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Markets start off the month with little change today after a big sell off on Friday. As we enter the second half of the year, investors grow more and more uncertain about the Fed's monetary policy decisions. They are also trying to evaluate if a cut is going to help or hurt the economy.

In the short term, the consumer would benefit from lower rates, but the inflationary problem would likely worsen as a result over time. The indices are definitely overvalued right now, but the question is whether the AI rally will continue. -Frank

Gold is now a +3 score which is not enough to give us a clear bias either way. Bond yields rise this morning as the dollar falls. Gold's price is rising, however, we are up against a strong level of resistance formed on the 1D timeframe.

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The crowd is long metals, oil, DAX, small caps. They are mixed gold, NIKKEI, DOW and NAS. Their top short plays are AUDUSD, SPX500, USDJPY.

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COT reports still show that smart money positions have shifted to being short NIKKEI, DOW and EUR. The top buys were on AUD, NZD, PLATINUM and NAS.

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Manufacturing PMI data came in lighter than expected as more signs of a contracting economy were shown today. We should expect some turbulent markets either direction because there is no bias as of now.

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