Gold, 4H chart:

Price bounced! 2300 clearly has some buyers present. With presidential debates happening this evening, markets may be a bit jittery.

We see yields falling sharply today, leading to a nice bounce in commodities and a dip in the USD.

I'm staying long. Will stop out if 2300 breaks.

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So what can we trade in such a mixed market? We could probably look long term. Think of the odds of high interest rates in the next 5 years. The Fed's forecast is now at a 3.75% interest rate by 2026. Regardless of where the market moves, the expectation is that rates will be lower over time.

The Fed is even expected to cut this year. Rates are going to come down at some point, and the first cut will be the sign of future rate cuts. We can look at the increase of bond prices over time as interest rates fall.

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Retail is now mixed indices and gold, while being long other metals, SPX500, Oil and small caps. The only short positions on retail sentiment are GER30 and USDJPY.

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COT data is now updated to display the latest filings from last week. There was now a sell-off in CAD, small caps and EUR. USD saw one of the largest gains last week while SPX and NAS were getting bought again.

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Unemployment claims remain steady for months suggesting a slowing labor market. Pending home sales came in lower as well, but house prices remain stubborn. No one is selling their homes with high mortgage rates. With house prices high and mortgage rates high, no one wants to buy a house. Sales will likely stay low, and a cooler jobs market could mean even less demand to spend on big purchases such as a house.

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July is an historically bullish month for stocks according to our seasonality scanner, so the melt up may not be over quite yet. We're about to enter the second half of the year after a red hot stock market. Growing concerns about interest rates will continue to put pressure on stocks, but it might not be enough to break the market until we see a fundamental shift from the Fed/CPI. Now that we are at this level, it is probably time to start thinking of getting more defensive on our positions going forward. Q3 and 4 could be very turbulent as we approach the presidential election and more FOMCs to come -Frank

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The heavy tech index's score dropped by one point today after retail gets a little more bullish on the index. July is historically a bullish month for the stock market, so we might see some more of this melt up in Q3.

However, investors need to brace for what may come next. Especially if we see a rate cut this year, the economy is poised to get significantly weaker. Stubborn inflation has not moved sub-3% YTD. If a cut happens this year, how can the Fed justify lowering prices?

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