BTCUSD 4H Chart

Nice start to this trade! Shared this buy signal yesterday during the selloff.

Longer term hold for me, as I'd like to have some exposure to crypto in my portfolio - but fully accept the volatility that comes with it!

Any crypto purchases could go to absolute zero, but the potential upside is very high if it becomes more mainstream over the years.

- Nick

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S&P 500
Looking at the S&P after a minor pullback, stocks seem to want to cling to the uptrend. The summer months could be slow, and a lack of demand in the market might suggest sideways movement. Consumer confidence came out as expected this morning and lower than the previous month. Since January, consumer confidence has steadily declined nearly 14 points. It’s possible the market has topped for now, and support lies around $5,400.

Gold
More weakness in the gold market occurred after consumer confidence today. Price is still stuck in a consolidation zone and is having a hard time making any moves. The 2 year treasury yield is higher as today which could be a result of higher interest rate expectations for longer. -Frank

EUR/USD
EURUSD falls on dollar strength this morning for the same reason gold might be falling. Price is now near a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe where it has bounced before. If the pair can’t hold above this level, it may move lower to test the 1.064s. -Frank

DXY Daily Chart:

Price looks like it may continue higher for the time being, with this strong price action today. Higher highs and higher lows can be seen on the 4H chart.

Meanwhile, Australian & Canadian inflation came out higher than expected this week, so the dollar may struggle at the previous highs if we get there.

If we see a strong breakout on higher than expected inflation readings on Friday (Core PCE is released), it could lead to a breakout through the highs. Conversely, a lower than expected read may reverse this dollar strength.

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When you see an overly bullish market, you tend to also see small caps outperform as well. The pressure that small caps are feeling are from the fear of higher interest rates. But if the market continues higher without the RUSSELL, there may be a catch-up trade in the small caps.

However, it is likely that the large cap tech companies' AI move could carry SPX and NAS higher and leave RUSSELL in the behind. There's too much speculation and potential risks involved that it is hard to trade a directional play unless you stare at your screen all day.

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Looking at smaller timeframes on the SPX500 show that each drift higher is followed by quick sell offs and reset the gains for the day. Different areas of the market move in different directions from each other as well. When NVDA was down, other sectors were getting bought which ended up flatlining the gains.

The direction of stocks is really uncertain based off what's going on in the US economy and the lack of direction. From seeing unrealistic bull rallies in the past, this summer could just be a lull in direction. Even with all the warning signs of a giant correction, it can very well push higher until the bubble seems well beyond the expected move. -Frank

Gold, 4H chart:

Price bounced! 2300 clearly has some buyers present. With presidential debates happening this evening, markets may be a bit jittery.

We see yields falling sharply today, leading to a nice bounce in commodities and a dip in the USD.

I'm staying long. Will stop out if 2300 breaks.

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So what can we trade in such a mixed market? We could probably look long term. Think of the odds of high interest rates in the next 5 years. The Fed's forecast is now at a 3.75% interest rate by 2026. Regardless of where the market moves, the expectation is that rates will be lower over time.

The Fed is even expected to cut this year. Rates are going to come down at some point, and the first cut will be the sign of future rate cuts. We can look at the increase of bond prices over time as interest rates fall.

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Retail is now mixed indices and gold, while being long other metals, SPX500, Oil and small caps. The only short positions on retail sentiment are GER30 and USDJPY.

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COT data is now updated to display the latest filings from last week. There was now a sell-off in CAD, small caps and EUR. USD saw one of the largest gains last week while SPX and NAS were getting bought again.

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Unemployment claims remain steady for months suggesting a slowing labor market. Pending home sales came in lower as well, but house prices remain stubborn. No one is selling their homes with high mortgage rates. With house prices high and mortgage rates high, no one wants to buy a house. Sales will likely stay low, and a cooler jobs market could mean even less demand to spend on big purchases such as a house.

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