The inflationary trend in the UK shows us much more promise than in the US, where there is no real trend at all. CPI in the US is in the same spot it was one year ago suggesting no progression at all.

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Gold 4H Chart Update:

Price action looking very strong here. Price was able to breakout of this 4H downtrend channel, and holding steady at the 2300 support level on the daily chart.

My average entry price is about 2307. All updates have been shared in the VIP channel since I took this trade with members.

On the fundamentals side, things also look strong. Last night, we had weaker than expected PMI numbers out of Europe, continuing to suggest slowdown in global economies could lead to more rate cuts. A bullish case for gold!

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- Nick

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Ouch! Gave back some serious unrealized gains with that hotter than expected PMI numbers out of the US.

Holding, but if price breaks support I’ll be taking profits on my remaining position.

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The EdgeFinder struggles to pick a side when it comes to the stock market and the S&P which has remained a neutral score for some time. Despite this, the index has continued to move higher each week without much hesitation.

The problem with this is that there are only a few companies that prop prices higher, while the rest stumble. Now that NVDA has been falling the past few days, index returns are limited to the upside or mute for gains.

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Out of the Big Three, blue chips are the only ones to prevail today. The S&P and NAS had a rather muted open this morning, but the US30 ripped higher. The correlation between this index and the rest of the market have been a bit divergent as the US30 has been struggling to keep up with the other market rallies.

There has been speculation of a massive rotation from heavy speculative plays such as the AI trade with NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, etc. to be in more reliable companies with dividends and more stability in high interest rate environments.

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Gold remains the only clear bias when looking at USD related assets. As the metal remains a strong bullish signal on the EdgeFinder, prices finally start to rebound from last week's levels. A major obstacle for gold, however, is the dollar's strength as rate cut hopes dwindle.

Other countries have begun to cut rates which could be a sign that the US will follow suit at some point this year. Gold could serve as a great hedge against the 'looming' correction and weaker dollar in the next couple years.

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Retail traders are still bearish on the UK100, USDJPY, GER30 and SPX500. The NASDAQ and gold remain mixed while other metals are the top bought. The RUSSELL- the most interest rate sensitive index - is majority long by retail traders as well.

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Smart Money is buying oil, bond notes, and gold. Meanwhile, institutions continue to retreat from the indices. This could be a precursor to a correction in the stock market, especially if NVDA cracks.
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Gold 4H Chart:

I am still long, curious to see if price action can find support in this area.

Fundamentally I still like the global trend towards rate cuts, uncertainty with upcoming elections, and geopolitics globally still under the surface.

- Nick

BTCUSD 4H Chart

Nice start to this trade! Shared this buy signal yesterday during the selloff.

Longer term hold for me, as I'd like to have some exposure to crypto in my portfolio - but fully accept the volatility that comes with it!

Any crypto purchases could go to absolute zero, but the potential upside is very high if it becomes more mainstream over the years.

- Nick

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S&P 500
Looking at the S&P after a minor pullback, stocks seem to want to cling to the uptrend. The summer months could be slow, and a lack of demand in the market might suggest sideways movement. Consumer confidence came out as expected this morning and lower than the previous month. Since January, consumer confidence has steadily declined nearly 14 points. It’s possible the market has topped for now, and support lies around $5,400.