One reason that CPI did not really give us a clear indication of decline is because we are pretty much at the same spot we were in last year in June. Inflation has remained elevated above 3% for a year. This should be enough to tell us that cuts are not necessary and could actually cause more damage if we see one this year.

Gold is still bullish despite a steady jobs market. Keeping rates higher for longer is not a good sign for gold either, but the metal may be a hedge against the market and the dollar. The good news is the Fed will have to cut at some point, and either way, the dollar will weaken. Which is why gold remains strong.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

Stocks may run out of steam...
I have reason to believe that the Fed will not cut at all this year due to our sticky inflationary environment. Rates should remain elevated until CPI can dip under 3% and we see a promising trend lower to 2%. If they continue to stay above 3%, rates should stay above 5%.

This will continue to put pressure on earnings, jobs, mortgage rates, spending, etc. And eventually, something will crack. The US is in the middle of a race to see which cracks first: inflation or the economy. Large pools of money are already exiting the market while the US indices remain at all time highs. I don't think this is sustainable, and that the price of stocks should not be this high. The market may continue to run for now, but higher rates are going to catch up to us. And you don't want to be on the top floor when the building collapses. -Frank

Want access to my trade signals?
Join the VIP Discord for live updates on my trades! Use code TGVIP for 10% off! See you in there 🤝

🚨 NEW TRADE SIGNAL! USDCHF
Don't miss out on the action! Unlock LIVE trade signals in the VIP discord! Here’s everything that’s included with your membership purchase:

✅ Nick & Frank’s trade signals, w/ entries, exits, & analysis (Forex, Indices, & Gold!)
✅ Strategies & Trading Guides
✅ Access to our 24/7 chatrooms
✅ Webinars & Support!

🎁 10% OFF all memberships with code TGVIP!

Have questions? Live chat us here

Regardless, the NAS is still a bullish signal on the EdgeFinder. This is because higher NFP and lower CPI are bullish scores. But we have to keep in mind that the unemployment rate is still on the rise, at 4%. JOLTS has been on a steady decline for a year. If the trend of our labor market continues to decline and interest rates won't budge, it's only going to hurt the bulls more when the market corrects.

I'm not certain of the magnitude of this looming correction, but I know the market is due to give back some of its gains thus far. Earnings season is done in the US, the hype is over with, and we are left with only one expected rate cut this year. The projected rates were revised from 3 cuts to 1. So who's to say that it won't be revised again to zero cuts this year?

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

For once, retail might actually have it right. Not being bullish on stocks at all time highs is generally a good rule of thumb as they are probably waiting for a pullback. However, they could be too early in the trade, and stocks could continue to defy gravity.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

Smart money is also decreasing its long stake in the S&P 500 as with retail. This mass exiting of the stock market could signify lower volume in the summer months, but it could also suggest that we are running out of buyers.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

Last June was 3% inflation. Since then, we've been up and down elevated above 3. If you look at this chart, you can see that we really haven't moved anywhere or seen any progression to lower CPI. People want to see the Fed cut so bad, but they don't realize the damage that could cause to what's already looking like a problem in the US economy.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 20% OFF w/ Code TGVIP

Staying long! SPX500

The S&P500 has broken new highs recently, with the cool inflation data this week.

While I remain cautious about how much upside I think there is left, I continue to hold my long position.

I have also sold covered calls against my position to capture a bit of extra premium, and hedge a bit in case the market pulls back.

SPX500 position was shared inside of our VIP room. - Nick

P&L for June 2024 so far.

A little rocky, but still in the green slightly

- Nick

Silver almost looks too good...

- Nick

Did you know you can get a FREE EDGEFINDER thanks to our partner Eightcap🥳

visit https://www.a1trading.com/eightcap/
for more info

Meet A1 Analyst- Frank Cabibi
Frank has been Nick's right hand man for more than half a decade, and has experience trading everything from stocks, to crypto, to forex. Frank also focuses on the fundamentals and technical analysis, but engages in mid to longer term swing trading.

Frank shares trades on:
Gold / XAUUSD
S&P / SPX500
NASDAQ / NAS100
Currency pairs (GBPJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY)
Cryptos

Want to follow Frank’s trades? Become a VIP discord member to see all of Frank’s trades!

🎁 Take 10% off any membership with code ‘TGVIP’

Stocks are a little stuck today post FOMC as investors aren't giving a directional bias. It appears that we are seeing some low volume trading in the summer months, so it's possible that the market drifts one way or the other. We are still in a strong uptrend, however, and price action still favors the upside. The choppiness could be caused by uncertainty in the Fed's decision to cut rates this year. As long as investor sentiment leans towards one this year (September for now), we may continue to see a slow chug higher.
- Frank

Off to a nice start on USDCHF!
Looking for a break of the lows in order to trail stops. I will keep an eye on it. -Nick

📈 Want access to my trades? Join here Use code TGVIP for 10% off

job openings report, showing consistent decline. Meanwhile, CPI is at roughly the same level as it was a year ago...

Yes this week showed some progress in inflation from CPI/PPI, but we're a ways a way from victory.

Could this be stagflation...?

I am long gold personally, with stops below 2300. - Nick

🔥 50% OFF VIP SIGNALS! Code: TGVIP
Hey traders! Our analysts have been in on some great trades recently! Because of this, we've decided to run our BIGGEST SALE EVER on VIP memberships!

Unlock access to:
✅ Nick, Frank, & Eivind's trade signals!
✅ Entries, exits, SL, & full analysis
✅ Trade signals on Gold, USOil, Forex pairs, Indices, Commodities, & Options!
✅ Live trading chatrooms
✅ Our strategies— download the PDF!

👉 Click HERE to see our pricing
📱JOIN VIP DISCORD NOW! Use code TGVIP

What's the difference between our signals service and others?

We show REAL brokerage results.

No nonsense, no demo balling, just straight up real trading.

Take advantage of our BIGGEST VIP discount of the entire year!

Use code TGVIP for 50% off here:
https://a1trading.com/vip/

Have questions? Chat with us now:
https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80

6 months straight of positive returns this year 👌

10 year T-notes are now very bullish on the EdgeFinder for several fundamental reasons. As yields continue to stay below 5%, the market anticipates a rate cut by September. Inflation showed a slight cooling in the US, while labor remains relatively steady in accordance with the Fed's plan of a soft landing.

Although there is still a possibility the Fed won't cut in September, current sentiment suggests lower yields. In turn, the price of these bonds will likely rise unless we see a hawkish shift in the Fed's tone. -Frank

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
📈 Trial the EdgeFinder
🚨 10% OFF w/ Code TGVIP