Gold begins the week in the green after nearly a month of downside. Price is now above the support on the 1D timeframe and is testing Friday's high. Smart money is still buying the metal despite falling yields and risk-on sentiment returning.
Geopolitical tensions are still causing issues on the supply side, but China seems pretty bullish on gold who has been buying for some time. The 12% rise from the start of the year suggests the lack of optimism in equities and possibly the dollar too.
- Frank
Geopolitical tensions are still causing issues on the supply side, but China seems pretty bullish on gold who has been buying for some time. The 12% rise from the start of the year suggests the lack of optimism in equities and possibly the dollar too.
- Frank
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Small caps are the only bearish reading on the indices, however. Retail seems to be a heavy influence in the latest stock market rally as COT is selling the indices. The interpretation of Fed sentiment seems skewed in the sense that investors are looking for any excuse to drive prices higher.
The issue I have with stocks right now is that we went from several rate cuts this year, with the expectations of them starting as early as December 2023. Now cut forecasts keep getting pushed back further and further into the latter half of the year, and there might not even be one in 2024.
- Frank
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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The issue I have with stocks right now is that we went from several rate cuts this year, with the expectations of them starting as early as December 2023. Now cut forecasts keep getting pushed back further and further into the latter half of the year, and there might not even be one in 2024.
- Frank
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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Retail is majority long oil, crypto, metals, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. They are also short the SPX500, GU, EU, AU and NU. The sentiment this week seems to be bearish dollar and bullish risk-on.
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If your answer was no, why not?
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I don't understand how to trade it
34%
I've just never been interested
16%
Other
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Have an awesome day gang!
- Nick
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Smart Money is selling oil, indices, and ten year notes. This is a sign that the institutions are getting more risk off going into the week.
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Last week's NFP report in the US came out much weaker than expected after seeing a steady climb in forecasts. A cooling jobs market could indicate pessimism in the US economy even if it means no rate hikes. This is especially true if CPI comes in higher or does not move next week.
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EUR/USD
EU comes up to test a long term resistance level on the 1D timeframe. This level is a falling trend line started at the beginning of the year. Short sellers may look to use this opportunity to move price lower. However, if the US stock market continues to move higher, it may propel the pair higher above the trend line. We need to watch for the break on the EU pair to see if it closes above that line. -Frank
EU comes up to test a long term resistance level on the 1D timeframe. This level is a falling trend line started at the beginning of the year. Short sellers may look to use this opportunity to move price lower. However, if the US stock market continues to move higher, it may propel the pair higher above the trend line. We need to watch for the break on the EU pair to see if it closes above that line. -Frank
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Gold
Still need to talk about gold even though it is not really moving today. The recent fall in yields has not really helped the price of gold. The US 2 year yield now sits at support around 4.8% on the 1D timeframe and may look to move higher. If policy remains strict from the Fed, it might be tough for gold to move up. But if we start to get an indication that the Fed may want to still cut this year, gold might be more optimistic. -Frank
Still need to talk about gold even though it is not really moving today. The recent fall in yields has not really helped the price of gold. The US 2 year yield now sits at support around 4.8% on the 1D timeframe and may look to move higher. If policy remains strict from the Fed, it might be tough for gold to move up. But if we start to get an indication that the Fed may want to still cut this year, gold might be more optimistic. -Frank
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NAS100
The NASDAQ continues to push higher this week as earnings roll out. Price is near all-time highs again sitting just 2% below. Similar to gold, the index trades against the yields. Seeing lower yields will likely be bullish for the stock market. The US02Y just needs to break a strong support level to do so. If NAS100 touches the highs, it could also indicate buyer exhaustion should yields stay where they are. -Frank
The NASDAQ continues to push higher this week as earnings roll out. Price is near all-time highs again sitting just 2% below. Similar to gold, the index trades against the yields. Seeing lower yields will likely be bullish for the stock market. The US02Y just needs to break a strong support level to do so. If NAS100 touches the highs, it could also indicate buyer exhaustion should yields stay where they are. -Frank
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Anonymous Poll
65%
Less than 10%
24%
10% - 30%
7%
30% - 50%
2%
50% - 70%
2%
More than 70%
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Someone offered Nick .1 BTC if he could prove his legitimacy as a trader... here's what happened:
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I Got Called Out. (My Response)
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Gold
Gold is still hovering at a consolidation zone around $2,300 as the EdgeFinder gives the metal a favorable bullish score at +6. The dollar and yields are on the rise today after holding a significant support level which could be keeping gold’s price at bay for the time being. If gold breaks under the support levels drawn on my 1D timeframe chart, it may start to change from it’s upside trend. A resistance level needed to be broken is at $2,350.
Gold is still hovering at a consolidation zone around $2,300 as the EdgeFinder gives the metal a favorable bullish score at +6. The dollar and yields are on the rise today after holding a significant support level which could be keeping gold’s price at bay for the time being. If gold breaks under the support levels drawn on my 1D timeframe chart, it may start to change from it’s upside trend. A resistance level needed to be broken is at $2,350.
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