EURUSD Daily Chart:

Big picture, the dollar continues to look strong relative to European peers.

Like this message if you want me to expand more details... for those of you fundamental nerds like me!

- Nick

Check this table out. Here's a quick rundown!

- COT data: shows bullish preference for USD over EURO
- Retail positioning: Retail is long this pair, which is a contrarian signal
- Seasonality: April historically bearish
- Trend: bearish!
- GDP: favors Euro
- PMI data favors USD
- Retail sales: strong in the US, weakening in Europe
- Inflation: sticky in the US, which could mean monetary policy remains restrictive in the US when compared to the ECB
- Jobs data: strong USD

It is unlikely, but don't rule out the possibility of Powell mentioning rate hikes potentially being appropriate tomorrow.

This could lead to continued USD strength, and a continued selloff in the stock market.

- Nick

Point 1: US Inflation progress has slowed. - measured by CPI

Point 2: Jobs data is strong. People are employed, consumer still spending, earnings still healthy for companies. This could lead to a persistent period of demand induced inflation!

Point 3: COT data shows steady demand for USD, and recent selling of indices.

Point 4: USD outperformance is clear on the top setups scoring page.

Update on my IWM / Russell position:

I've moved my stop slightly in profit. While I believe the Powell may sound more hawkish today due to sticky inflation, these events can be volatile and if a surprise dovish note causes markets to pop, I will take profits. - Nick

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NZDUSD is flashing bearish signals on the EdgeFinder. The score is now -12 and has remained lower than -10 for the most part for the last month. This is likely due to the monetary shift in Fed sentiment who had originally forecasted three rate cuts by the end of this year.

However, we are not seeing any of these plans come to fruition as we approach the middle of the year. Now the question remains when, if any, the cuts will come. As forecasts keep getting pushed back deeper into the year, it raises fears that they won't come until next year.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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The NAS100 seems relatively unbothered by the fact there might not be any rate cuts this year. Price is only 5% off the highs it made earlier in the year as the lack of volatility this week is keeping stocks within a range of support and resistance.

What we can likely expect is choppiness from positive growth in earnings yet stubborn inflation. Tomorrow's NFP is going to be another big news day, and we'll see if that is enough to give the markets a decisive move. It seems that a lower jobs number will be bearish for the indices given the fact we would have a slower jobs market and higher than expected inflation.
-Frank

Right now the US indices are neutral for the most part. The market doesn't know where to go with the data we have now. Mixed sentiment is usually a bad place for traders unless they are taking quick intraday moves like what we have seen the past couple weeks.

The Russell is very interest rate sensitive as it consists of smaller companies that need yields lower for a smoother business operation. If you take a look at the US indices, you might have noticed that despite the 2-3% moves that happened during the day ended up closing back to where they opened.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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