COT shows an aggressive buy on the S&P and bond prices. The dollar saw minimal interest last Friday. Among the top shorted assets from smart money, we have GBP, CAD EUR and CHF. All of these currencies are forecasted to see lower rates before the dollar.
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Despite economic growth and steady labor conditions, investors still seem to think that stocks will be on the decline in the next 6 months from now. The next report will be on Wednesday to see how much this gap has changed and whether or not we get any improvement from the bearishness happening in the markets.
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❤14👍3🔥1
GBP/USD
This pair is still a strong bearish reading on the EdgeFinder indicating that price is likely to trend lower over time. The score decreased once again taking the pair to a -13. However, stock market futures are up in premarket as investors get ready for a heavy tech earnings day. Tesla reports after the bell today while Meta reports Wednesday, Google and Microsoft report Thursday. We could get some short term upside if earnings roll out in favor of the estimates. GU is stuck in between a long-term wedge pattern and may continue trending within this range.
-Frank
This pair is still a strong bearish reading on the EdgeFinder indicating that price is likely to trend lower over time. The score decreased once again taking the pair to a -13. However, stock market futures are up in premarket as investors get ready for a heavy tech earnings day. Tesla reports after the bell today while Meta reports Wednesday, Google and Microsoft report Thursday. We could get some short term upside if earnings roll out in favor of the estimates. GU is stuck in between a long-term wedge pattern and may continue trending within this range.
-Frank
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NAS100
Speaking of tech earnings, the NAS is up over half a percent before the market opens in the anticipation of higher earnings this season for the big names in tech. Tensions in the Middle East continue to be a concern, but this week’s sentiment may revolve around stock revenue performance. The index bounced off a key support line on the 1D timeframe and may experience a period of rallying in the meantime.
- Frank
Speaking of tech earnings, the NAS is up over half a percent before the market opens in the anticipation of higher earnings this season for the big names in tech. Tensions in the Middle East continue to be a concern, but this week’s sentiment may revolve around stock revenue performance. The index bounced off a key support line on the 1D timeframe and may experience a period of rallying in the meantime.
- Frank
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Gold
Yields are on the rise again as gold dips down to a support level on the 1D timeframe. Price did end up testing this zone and looks like it may have found room to bounce. We still have to watch how the day ends to see where price may end up going this week. Geopolitical concerns will help prompt price higher, but earnings battles risk sentiment this week on stock optimism.
-Frank
Yields are on the rise again as gold dips down to a support level on the 1D timeframe. Price did end up testing this zone and looks like it may have found room to bounce. We still have to watch how the day ends to see where price may end up going this week. Geopolitical concerns will help prompt price higher, but earnings battles risk sentiment this week on stock optimism.
-Frank
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Will the Russell2000 roll over from here?
Fundamentally, I think we could see it. With rising yields & diminishing expectations for rate cuts this year, I continue to stay bearish on small cap stocks. This is an especially damaging situation for a basket of stocks that relies on low cost debt for growth!
Technically however, if price breaks this downtrend, I will admit I'm wrong and walk away with a small loss. Let's see!
- Nick
Fundamentally, I think we could see it. With rising yields & diminishing expectations for rate cuts this year, I continue to stay bearish on small cap stocks. This is an especially damaging situation for a basket of stocks that relies on low cost debt for growth!
Technically however, if price breaks this downtrend, I will admit I'm wrong and walk away with a small loss. Let's see!
- Nick
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Silver
Commodities are still heavily bullish favored on the EdgeFinder which scores silver at +8. Metals are still a hot topic in the markets amidst geopolitical fallouts. However, yields need to pull back from the current stubborn levels which appears to be putting pressure on the risk-favored sentiment. Earnings could help provide further optimism for such assets if they prove to be substantial in the current and future forecasts. Silver is on a level of support and looks to be attempting higher moves after yesterday’s close on a bullish hammer.
Commodities are still heavily bullish favored on the EdgeFinder which scores silver at +8. Metals are still a hot topic in the markets amidst geopolitical fallouts. However, yields need to pull back from the current stubborn levels which appears to be putting pressure on the risk-favored sentiment. Earnings could help provide further optimism for such assets if they prove to be substantial in the current and future forecasts. Silver is on a level of support and looks to be attempting higher moves after yesterday’s close on a bullish hammer.
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EURUSD is majority bearish on the EdgeFinder as the score declined further into the negatives to -11. Most pairs trading against the dollar are weaker after today's GDP report. But inflationary metrics are coming out indicating a further rise in inflation.
Core PCE m/m comes out tomorrow while quarter-over-quarter was released this morning. With the quarterly number higher than expected, investors expect the monthly report to be higher tomorrow. PCE is a key Fed metric for inflation; a higher PCE would be against Fed hopes to cut rates this year.
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Core PCE m/m comes out tomorrow while quarter-over-quarter was released this morning. With the quarterly number higher than expected, investors expect the monthly report to be higher tomorrow. PCE is a key Fed metric for inflation; a higher PCE would be against Fed hopes to cut rates this year.
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