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Gold is either signaling the next bear case for stocks is around the corner (geopolitics, recession fears, stagflation?)

OR... It's incredibly overbought.

I'm leanings towards the former. I'm long since $2030 an ounce (187.79 on GLD ETF), continuing to trail stops from here.

- Nick

Speaking of indices, let's take a look at the NASDAQ on the EdgeFinder. The score changed by a dramatic 6 point move to the upside after unemployment rate and COT data from last Friday. The scores holding this index back are from inflation, interest rates and Services PMI.

To get a stronger bullish reading, investors will need to see a softer inflation number than what we have seen so far this year. An increase is going to likely hurt optimism in the stock market, especially for the tech market.

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Retail's top long positions are on the metals and crypto. The small cap index (Russell 2000) is another majority long positions. The top shorted are the US and UK stock index.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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Smart Money just bought a considerable amount of the SPX500. They are selling dollar and gold too. Oil and bitcoin still remain in a bullish bias from the smart money category. Smart money is also buying 10 year bond notes betting on lower yields.

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The Interest Rate Breakdown for the US indices shows us where short term rates are compared to its 8-day moving average. When yields fall below the MA, it's usually a good sign that there is increased risk appetite. Right now, yields are above the MA which suggests concerns of higher rates for longer and possibly higher CPI on Wednesday.

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As fundamental traders, we struggled with the time it took to gather relevant data and form a bias based on what that data meant. We believed that fundamentals offered an a unique Edge to trading and wanted to create a tool that simplified fundament analysis. This led to the creation of the EdgeFinder in 2022!

After the EdgeFinder’s initial release, we quickly learned that this was a problem so many other traders were having. From that point, we have been developing more features and finding more ways to trade with data on our side!

We are very proud of the success of this tool and how it has transformed the game for so many traders. Because of the simplicity of the tool, many traders who struggled to grasp fundamental concepts are now able to trade with market data. We have even received feedback from many traders who have been able to become profitable with the tool! 🤩

Today marks the EdgeFinder’s official 2 year anniversary! The market scanner has come so far from where it was in its original release, and we aren’t stopping anytime soon!

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The dollar index looks like it might be breaking out... Why?

- Jobs data was strong
- CPI data was hotter than expected
- Rate cut expectations continue to be pushed further out (September is now concensus for the first cut!)

A solid close outside and retest of this area looks strong.

I am long USDCHF as of yesterday morning. - Nick

EURUSD is a -8 now on the EdgeFinder indicating dollar strength after the higher CPI numbers yesterday. The score changed by 4 points to the downside today. COT shows selling of the dollar and euro while retail sentiment switched to being majority long at 69%.

What investors are probably seeing now is a dovish ECB which are already expected to cut before the US. Meanwhile, the Fed may have to take another look at inflation and decide whether or not they want to still cut this year.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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I'm not usually a fan of USDCAD, but the EdgeFinder has scored it as a +10. After 4 months of limited upside, the pair finally broke above a significant resistance level on the 1D timeframe. Closing above that level was pivotal in the direction of this pair.

PPI seems to not be doing much for dollar bearishness now that the market is looking towards a longer term high interest rate monetary policy in the US. Canada was also argued to be one of the first to cut rates this year.

- Frank

Gold is now a neutral score on the EdgeFinder at -2. Yesterday's fundamentals did not check the bullish boxes that investors were looking for. Although gold likes higher inflation rates, this more so helps the dollar due to Fed uncertainty around rate cuts.

Cutting rates would weaken the dollar, but in the short term, higher rates for longer is likely going to help USD and hurt gold. The metal may be due for a pullback if it breaks support underneath $2,300.

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