Here is a different look at the SPX500 on the Smart Money Tracker. As you can tell from these two charts, the number of long contracts is increasing over time, more so than the number of shorts. The bottom chart shows an overall net bearish reading from COT, but if you take a look at the yellow bars across time, SM is getting less bearish.

Just trailed my stop further as another explosive NY open begins... Doing my best to stay in this trade, while also locking in profit along the way. I (at this point) wouldn't mind being taken out prior to the weekend, but if it does continue, I will let the story play out

BUY NAS100 UPDATE (Entered 8 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 15026.36 (Floating +6373.30 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 15545.29 (Trailed: +5189.30 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A

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The Fed's forecast shows another hike or two by year end. After recent inflation numbers, however, investors are not quite sure where rates will go from here. The Fed has been clear that they intend to continue to tighten if the data is there to prompt it. But core and regular CPI have been cooling. Investors now wonder if at all there will be another hike. And if so, maybe one more. Hard to say, but cooler inflation numbers across the board is bullish for the indices and gold.

NASDAQ 🚀

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Buy Forex Tester and take a chance to win an iPhone 14! 🚨

Everyone who bought Forex Tester 5 on the Forex Tester website (https://forextester.com/) participates in the draw on July 24th!

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I have a thought I wanted to share with you guys, that I thought might be important in regards to this week.

If you missed out on the very big moves this week (nasdaq, dollar selloff, SP500, gold, etc) remember that there will always be another move to play.

The markets will still be moving tomorrow.

If you let FOMO get the best of you this week, you may have gotten lucky, or you may have lost money. But by chasing - you run a bigger risk: building a bad habbit that could cost you big later.

Patience pays, don't let FOMO mess that up! - Nick

Frank and I have traded and designed trading software together for years.

He’s my trading partner 🤝

10/10 recommend getting yourself one!

(He also shares most of the trading analysis in our telegram!)

- Nick

Have a nice weekend everyone, from myself and the A1 Team!

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NZDUSD is now a +5 on the EdgeFinder. Price action is both bullish on the trend reading and seasonality history. COT shows a clear bias towards the USD which is likely a long term prospective. Retail is majority bearish on this pair. But what about in the short term?

Tuesday, NZD will announce their quarterly CPI numbers which could result in strong reaction from the market. A higher CPI could indicate more restrictions from the RBNZ which would be very bullish for the kiwi. However, if numbers come in cooler than expected, investors may interpret this as less hawkish for the RBNZ, thus a bearish kiwi.

CAD may be looking to change direction here on the 1D timeframe. With inflation news coming out on Tuesday as well, price action is already looking bullish on the day. Despite the stark sell off and cross below the rising trend line, this pair definitely looks like something to consider on the bullish side.

It's the same sort of argument for the NZD this week: higher or unchanged CPI would look bullish for CAD as the BOC may continue to hike despite economic concerns. We will have to see how this day closes before we can get more optimistic on price, but a more aggressive BOC looks good as Japan remains dovish.

NJ reads a buy at +4. Winning in every category but GDP and unemployment rate, the pair looks exceptional to the long side. The trend projection is flat with an upward reading for seasonality in July. Retail is mostly short this pair. COT shows a bullish lean toward kiwi and an increasingly bearish tone for the yen.

If inflation stays high above the 2% target range, it may cause further tightening down the road. Just like what we mentioned before, higher CPI or unchanged rates may look bullish for the kiwi. GDP growth remains a concern for the RBNZ as hiking has taken its toll on the economy, and a focus on inflation could lead to more contractions over time.

NZD CPI Expectations & Notes:

- Cooler numbers are expected tomorrow
- 6 of the past 8 quarters of inflation have been higher than expectations
- Inflation not expected to return to target range until next year
- Price of food in focus for New Zealand

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Retail shows a majority bullish bias on CAD which could be concerning for the bulls. However, they seem to be mostly short NZD prior to CPI. The strongest readings are CADCHF and CHFJPY.

An overview of Friday's report suggests a few things: indices are stronger, NZDJPY is now bullish leaning again, JPY is even weaker, metals stronger, USOil much more bullish, CAD weak however. The dollar, although net long, looks weaker this week as there were a handful more shorts in the market.