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CHF/JPY falls with a rise in risk-off sentiment. Today's PPI numbers seemed to affect the Swiss and Japan markets as well. The pair's score is still a strong buy around +6 with almost all indicators pointing toward CHF strength. The two exceptions being retail sentiment and GDP growth which is scored at neutral.

Price is down over half a percent to start off the NY session, nearing the April lows around 149.077. This could be partially due to the overall rebound in yen which has been beaten down for some time. Because both currencies are considered risk off, traders might be looking for the more stable pick. In this case, EdgeFinder likes CHF more.

Gold tumbled on the news of lower PPI which is a helpful measure of inflation as well as demand for products such as the metal. The sell off came abruptly in the initial reaction, but the metal has paired some losses since. The USD saw an unexpected spike after a lower-than-expected inflation number. Core CPI still remained unchanged which is another concern for interest rate decisions.

One thing gold is good at is its hedge against inflation, but demand must be growing as well. Price hovers around the $2019. If a bottom was established on the current 4H candle, we may see a test to the $2030s again. However, if demand struggles still, we can expect a test at $2000 again.

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JP225 remains hot on the EdgeFinder's radar which is reading a +6 strong buy. The index is relatively flat today as we near the middle of the NY session. Trend readings still point upwards despite yesterday's losses. Mixed earnings are keeping price at bay for the time being as stocks near August 2022 highs.

Unusual sentiment also makes it hard to pick sides on the index. COT and retail agree which is not very common. Both are largely short, although institutions are clearly increasing their long positions in the stock market.

The crowd likes oil with a mixed outlook on gold. USD pairs are mixed per usual, but the strongest biases look to be on the Japanese and German stock markets. The problem as we discussed earlier is that institutional activity also agrees with retail sentiment.

Here's the full view of the Smart Money Tracker with its new features at the bottom. Gold is pulled up on the two new charts. Week to week data suggests a flatline on gold longs with a slight increase in USD longs. The currency pair bias chart shows a declining number of net long biases over the past three weeks. Although gold is the most bought asset on the tracker, a declining net bullish bias is something to consider.

The US currently has the advantage between Europe and UK. BOE just announced a rate hike of 25 bp in the hopes of getting back under the double digits that has been pressuring UK's economy. This mild increase in the bank rate is meant to prevent a recession in the UK which seems to be working in the investors' eyes.

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USD/CAD Analysis
UC rises with more dollar strength to end the week. Inflation numbers seem to be affecting USD in a bullish way as the CAD remains in lower demand. Price came down to a double bottom earlier this week which turned into a triple. The pair has not completed its move to the top of the channel so there looks to be more upside.

Gold Analysis
Gold was up against major resistance on the 1D timeframe before pulling back under the $2020 level. Lower inflation numbers sparked a selloff in the price of this precious metal which spilled over into today’s session. Price has support around the $2000 level in which it has bounced from before. Below that, there is cleaner support in the $1970s.

Price action looks overall bearish on our scanner as its score reads -5. Both the trend reading and seasonality agree that lower lows are likely to occur especially now that the dollar is gaining strength from recent CPI and Core CPI news.

The crypto looks a little bearish from sentiment data as well. Retail is mostly long while institutions are mixed. It's also harder for a speculative crypto like Bitcoin to thrive in a high inflation market. This could be an entirely new market for Bitcoin as it has never treaded in these waters before.

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Swiss-Yen is on another run to the upside as JPY continues to weaken on dovish sentiment. The EdgeFinder is still scoring this pair as a strong buy at +6 which is telling for any pair. As price bounced from the lows of Thursday’s session, the pair is coming up to test a previous high around 152.24s.

A break in this level would indicate higher highs towards resistance around 154. The reason for the pair's uptrend is likely not due to sentiment data from COT or retail, but rather a BOJ announcement that rates will not be raised and remain negative while Governor Ueda maintains focus on economic expansion.

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EURUSD is now a strong sell on the EdgeFinder after taking quite a tumble from recent US inflation data. Price seems to be attempting a recovery from here, although the break under the trend line looks somewhat like a bearish trend reversal. Price could come down to support around 1.05313 where there is a previous bottom.

The 10 year seasonality average and trend reading do not agree, but it seems that sentiment on the retail side is shifting to a more bearish sign for the pair. Analysts and banks alike are projecting higher prices for the pair, however. Both groups believe that price is bullish looking into the next month and quarter with an average quarterly price forecast of 1.1029.

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GBP/CAD Analysis
Pound-Cad falls on higher CPI numbers in Canada. This likely prompted the BOC to continue their current policy of rate hikes. The rate projections are already in through Q4 of 2024. CAD is likely to see 5% by the end of this year before cutting to 4.6% by next year. The pair has been in a strong uptrend since September 2022 which suggests it could keep going. Price could find a bounce from this long term trend line on the 1D timeframe.

EUR/USD Analysis
Price turned red upon a miss in USD retail sales expectations. Weak economic data may be a signal to investors that the US stock market may follow that up with a bearish tone. Because EU is positively correlated to SPX, we may see another leg down to support around 1.077.

When comparing interest rates, NZDJPY and USDJPY is the highest yielding pair for the carry trade. With an already bearish yen outlook, investors are more enticed to trade and hold positions against the yen as they will receive a payout each day. From looking at this chart alone, it's clearer why the yen is so bearish for the time being.

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