A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures
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Potential long play on EURCAD as price takes a decent pullback on the 4H timeframe. The pair is currently testing support and is starting to show some rejection. However, should price break lower, more support can be found around 1.49478 that served as support before. The uptrend still looks healthy after the recent upside. A break under that previous bottom level of support might indicate a reversal, however.

The pair has been a neutral rating for some time and used to be sell leaning before the trend reading of +2. Retail is heavily short this pair although smart money is heavily bullish EUR and short CAD. April is historically a bearish month for the pair on both the 5 and 10 year averages, but it seems to be defying the past as price gained nearly 2% this month.
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Our smart money tracker reveals some interesting changes in institutional positions from last week. Commodities remain the most bought assets while JPY, CAD and SPX are the top shorted. SPX looks especially bearish as sentiment grows to a stronger by the bears. COT may be starting to flip sentiment on gold after last week's activity. Platinum entered the top 3 on the tracker with growing bullishness. CHF may be flipping too.
AUDUSD remains a strong sell on the EdgeFinder as price rebounds 0.13% on the day. Although the dollar looks weaker, it is not as weak as the AUD buck. In terms of fundamentals, the USD has the overall advantage with unemployment as the only exception.

Retail is heavily bullish on this pair, but price hasn't made any considerable moves to the upside yet. The EdgeFinder has not given this pair a 0 rating since the start of this year which suggests a heavy bearish sentiment towards the buck.
Retail sentiment looks to be heavily bearish on the euro while strong bullish the AU dollar. These two currencies are something to look out for tomorrow and for next week. CPI is set to come out tomorrow for the EUR while CAD will report GDP. The crowd could be betting on a higher GDP than expected for the Canadian dollar and possibly higher inflation numbers for EUR.
USD advanced GDP came out this morning lower than expected. In comparison to the other currency's reports, the US is showing the most growth, however, 1.1% was a considerable contraction from last quarter's report. In either case of expanding or contracting economy, it may be bullish for USD as the Fed stated no plans of rate cuts going into May or for the remainder of 2023.
EUR/JPY Analysis
EJ is back to a strong buy on the EdgeFinder after a relatively dovish stance on the Japanese economy. Yen is looking much weaker on the day as a result, and price broke higher above a significant resistance line. A close above this level would be a good confirmation of another run to the upside.
Swiss-yen has been a longer term strong buy on the EdgeFinder. The score has been at +7 for a while now, and will likely continue for some time. This pair is one of the few assets that have a strong fundamental and technical bias towards CHF. In other words, it's a very one-sided score with the exception of COT and GDP.

Retail is strongly bearish, trying to catch a reversal. Smart money isn't too keen on either currency as of now. Regardless, the pair continues to push higher due to how bearish the yen is right now. Aside from COT, the fundamentals and technicals are pointing towards CHF.
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The EdgeFinder is spitting out more strong biases against the Yen as UJ is now a +6. Similar outlook for UJ, the pair looks bullish right now. If price can close above that falling trend line, it would look like there is some long potential.

The BOJ announced that they will wait over a year to consider tightening monetary policy. Meanwhile, JPY's CPI came out higher than expected. We are looking at a very weak yen. On the 1D timeframe, UJ's price looks to have a lot of bullish momentum. The next test could potentially be around 137.9 where there is a previous high.
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The crowd is mixed between euro and the aussie. The strongest biases to the long side are NZDCHF, AUDNZD, and CADCHF. We can tell that retail is uncertain while also heavily bearish CADJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY and CHFJPY.
Here is a better visual on institutional behavior. What we can see is a continuation of euro longs, declining bullishness on metals and oil, and an extremely bearish reading on yen. The weekly change in activity shows a decrease in long contracts with a large increase in shorts for JPY.
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Because of the recent rise in core CPI and the lack of monetary tightening, USD and EUR look fundamentally stronger. The chart at the bottom is tracking inflation reports from January of this year. What we can see is a downtrend for both the euro and dollar, but the yen's decrease in inflation is halted.
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EUR/JPY Analysis
While maintaining a strong buy rating, this pair is down ~1.4% from yesterday’s highs. This pair might be the best institutional play as smart money continues to buy into the euro while shorting the yen. Retail is starkly opposite the trend as they are trying to catch a reversal. However, the uptrend might not be over yet, as the trend projection forecasts another steady leg up with a high of 152.07. After a dovish statement from the BOJ, it’s clear for investors as to which currency is likely to get stronger over time. ECB’s priorities are about quelling inflation, but Japan is more focused on a healthier economy.
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Gold is now reading a strong buy on the EdgeFinder after yesterday's FOMC meeting in which a statement of the need for more rate hikes was redacted in the Fed's report. This hinted towards a pause in rate hikes for the time being, and the bulls saw strength in the metal.

Price gapped up on the 1D timeframe showing tremendous demand. This however, could be a sign that it might have moved too much too quickly. Either way, price is facing its most significant level of resistance yet. Things to look out for are tomorrow's unemployment rate which could either strengthen or weaken the score on gold.