AUD/USD Analysis
AU is still the strongest sell rating at -10. In every category, USD has the advantage over the Australian buck. High impact news this week has caused mixed volatility within the majors today. The miss in PPI numbers today was interpreted as bullish for the USD. Tonight, AUD expects to have a higher NFP and lower unemployment rate. Due to these upcoming events, investors are still trying to price in a stronger economic reading for AUD. But the question remains: can it beat the dollar? The EF thinks more downside is to come for this pair.
AU is still the strongest sell rating at -10. In every category, USD has the advantage over the Australian buck. High impact news this week has caused mixed volatility within the majors today. The miss in PPI numbers today was interpreted as bullish for the USD. Tonight, AUD expects to have a higher NFP and lower unemployment rate. Due to these upcoming events, investors are still trying to price in a stronger economic reading for AUD. But the question remains: can it beat the dollar? The EF thinks more downside is to come for this pair.
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The Banking Collapse Explained
Sudden panic entered the market over the weekend that sparked a major downturn in stocks and USD. What are known as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), reported a $2 billion loss in their investments as a result of interest rate hikes. This caused a severe sell off over the next trading session. The goal of this article is to help explain what happened in this most recent banking collapse and why certain assets are reacting the way they are.
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Sudden panic entered the market over the weekend that sparked a major downturn in stocks and USD. What are known as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), reported a $2 billion loss in their investments as a result of interest rate hikes. This caused a severe sell off over the next trading session. The goal of this article is to help explain what happened in this most recent banking collapse and why certain assets are reacting the way they are.
Read our trade setups on GOLD, USD, & SPX500
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USDCAD Analysis
USDCAD is the strongest buy on the EdgeFinder. All categories point toward dollar bullishness except inflation. Comparatively, it's more favorable to at least have some GDP growth with slightly higher inflation. Retail is strongly bearish although historically, price has gained in the month of March. The fact that the trend reading is still pointing higher despite the recent pullback indicates a healthy long setup.
USDCAD is the strongest buy on the EdgeFinder. All categories point toward dollar bullishness except inflation. Comparatively, it's more favorable to at least have some GDP growth with slightly higher inflation. Retail is strongly bearish although historically, price has gained in the month of March. The fact that the trend reading is still pointing higher despite the recent pullback indicates a healthy long setup.
SPX500 Analysis
Equities are a strong sell after retail shifts to majority long. Technicals are point towards a more bearish market although inflation is coming down. Investors hope that rate hikes are done due to the banking scare. That with the combination of lower inflation could be a sign of potential bullishness in the market, but it is still up to the Fed to decide what will happen in the next couple rate decisions.
Equities are a strong sell after retail shifts to majority long. Technicals are point towards a more bearish market although inflation is coming down. Investors hope that rate hikes are done due to the banking scare. That with the combination of lower inflation could be a sign of potential bullishness in the market, but it is still up to the Fed to decide what will happen in the next couple rate decisions.
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NZDCHF Analysis
NZDCHF is an interesting seasonality study because of how the 10 and 5 year averages are different for the month of March. This opposite move in most recent years could start to shift the 10 year average over time. March has been a unique month as no other month is like this. The pair has to move over 3% higher to get back match the 10 year average.
NZDCHF is an interesting seasonality study because of how the 10 and 5 year averages are different for the month of March. This opposite move in most recent years could start to shift the 10 year average over time. March has been a unique month as no other month is like this. The pair has to move over 3% higher to get back match the 10 year average.
Gold topped $1960 on a massive run to the upside, and is now hovering in that resistance zone. The EdgeFinder has this metal ranked at a +5, but it is weak in the inflation and interest rate categories. The trend is heavy to the upside because of this week's bank news and a declining yield rate. The dollar is both strong and weak depending on the asset it's up against. In this case, gold is stronger right now. The question is whether the uptrend will persist or not. If we don't see a pullback at the highs, there could be another swing higher towards the $2000 level
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USDCAD is still the EdgeFinder's favorite buy score along with USDZAR at +7. Retail is going against one of the pair's most bullish months as we step into another Fed rate decision week. USD majors are likely to see a lot more volatility in the next few days as investors try to process and price in another hike.
The Fed has been adamant about fighting inflation, but Wall Street thinks they should halt during the banking crisis. Regardless of what anyone thinks, one thing comes to mind when there's uncertainty about the USD: don't fight the Fed. If they talk about raising rates, we should behave accordingly.
The Fed has been adamant about fighting inflation, but Wall Street thinks they should halt during the banking crisis. Regardless of what anyone thinks, one thing comes to mind when there's uncertainty about the USD: don't fight the Fed. If they talk about raising rates, we should behave accordingly.
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USD/JPY Analysis
With a neutral rating on the EdgeFinder, USDJPY dropped down to a key support level on the 1D timeframe. Price has come down to a rising trend line and the 61.8% fib retracement level. Again with the funds rate decision on Wednesday, it appears that rates will come up once again and dollar strength will continue.
It is especially important to look at the big picture as daily sentiment constantly flips. The pair dipped back into a neutral rating after the trend reading flipped to the downside. If price bounces from the trend line, we could see a further test around the 135s. A powerful thing about the UJ pair is that it is both obeying the dollar and equities price action. Both SPX and UJ have been directly correlated recently (correlation coefficient of .51) as they start off the week in the same direction.
With a neutral rating on the EdgeFinder, USDJPY dropped down to a key support level on the 1D timeframe. Price has come down to a rising trend line and the 61.8% fib retracement level. Again with the funds rate decision on Wednesday, it appears that rates will come up once again and dollar strength will continue.
It is especially important to look at the big picture as daily sentiment constantly flips. The pair dipped back into a neutral rating after the trend reading flipped to the downside. If price bounces from the trend line, we could see a further test around the 135s. A powerful thing about the UJ pair is that it is both obeying the dollar and equities price action. Both SPX and UJ have been directly correlated recently (correlation coefficient of .51) as they start off the week in the same direction.
Looking at DXY on the 4H timeframe at a potential long setup. I could see price moving down to the 103.150s (falling trend line support) or the 102.820s where there is a double bottom. It seems like investors are underestimating the dollar right now, especially before Wednesday. It's still very uncertain what will happen, but the Fed has also not hinted about a break in interest rate hikes. If that's true, there is likely more upside for the USD