EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
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🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does the unemployment rate measure?
What does the unemployment rate measure?
Anonymous Quiz
6%
Interest rate changes
5%
Inflation trends
87%
% of people without jobs
2%
Stock market movement
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EUR/USD – A Weekend Trade Deal Was Made
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the U.S. and EU finalized a trade agreement over the weekend. The pair had been riding a steep uptrend since July 17, peaking near 1.17800 — but that move quickly reversed with the weekend news. Price fell aggressively to the 1.1650s, with the next key support down at 1.15800.
The trade deal included a 15% tariff on EU exports — half the 30% originally floated. Aircraft parts and certain chemicals are exempt, and auto tariffs were reduced. While it removes uncertainty, many EU officials see the agreement as imbalanced. Markets had largely priced in a resolution, which may explain the swift reversal.
The move favors the USD for now, as safe-haven demand eases and the Fed remains in focus with its rate decision later this week. The euro’s broader trend will depend on how this deal impacts growth expectations and future ECB guidance. Until then, price may hover near support as markets reassess positioning
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Gold – Stabilizing After Trade Deal Shake-Up
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
Gold gave back early gains as dollar strength returned following news of a US-EU trade agreement. The deal includes a 15% tariff on most European goods—automobiles and semiconductors among them—while the EU agreed to a $750B commitment in US energy and military assets.
While the deal reduced some global uncertainty, it also tilted the scale in the dollar’s favor, cooling safe-haven demand for gold. Traders are now turning attention to a possible extension of the US-China trade truce, with negotiators meeting today to avoid new tariffs.
Markets are also eyeing this week’s jam-packed data calendar. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday could shift sentiment, especially alongside NFP, ADP, JOLTS, and the PCE index—all of which will help shape inflation expectations. Until then, gold may chop around as investors weigh the evolving macro backdrop.
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Closing out my GBP/USD short position for another +51 pips profit 🚀 Price tapping into some daily chart support which previously held strong. Going to watch to see how price reacts here, for a possible new trade! Taking the win and moving on 🙏 - Nick
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US Economic Heatmap – Resilience Across the Board
The latest data continues to favor the US. The EdgeFinder’s economic heatmap shows a strong string of beats across major categories — from NFP to retail sales and JOLTS. Even jobless claims and mortgage applications came in better than expected. The USD impact score sits at 62%, reflecting broad strength.
This resilience is coming at a time when the US is actively striking new trade deals — most recently with the EU and Japan — adding a confidence boost to US assets. These developments have kept demand elevated for the dollar, stocks, and even risk-on trades.
Looking ahead, the focus will turn to the Fed’s policy stance and whether incoming inflation and labor data will validate the market’s optimistic outlook. For now, the US macro picture remains one of the strongest globally.
The latest data continues to favor the US. The EdgeFinder’s economic heatmap shows a strong string of beats across major categories — from NFP to retail sales and JOLTS. Even jobless claims and mortgage applications came in better than expected. The USD impact score sits at 62%, reflecting broad strength.
This resilience is coming at a time when the US is actively striking new trade deals — most recently with the EU and Japan — adding a confidence boost to US assets. These developments have kept demand elevated for the dollar, stocks, and even risk-on trades.
Looking ahead, the focus will turn to the Fed’s policy stance and whether incoming inflation and labor data will validate the market’s optimistic outlook. For now, the US macro picture remains one of the strongest globally.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do central banks raise interest rates?
Why do central banks raise interest rates?
Anonymous Quiz
4%
Boost exports
6%
Lower bond yields
10%
Increase spending
80%
Fight inflation
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USD/JPY – Fed + BoJ on Deck
USD/JPY is back at resistance around 149.00 — a level that rejected two weeks ago. A break and retest could open the door toward 151.00, while a rejection might send us back toward 146.00 support. This week’s calendar is stacked, with both the Fed and BoJ set to announce rate decisions.
Markets expect the Fed to hold steady at 4.5% on Wednesday. The bigger question is the forward guidance. Traders are watching for any hint of a cut in September — something that may already be partially priced in. Trump’s comments calling for immediate rate cuts add to the noise, but Powell’s tone will ultimately drive the move.
The Bank of Japan meets a day later. Another hold is expected, but with inflation rising in Japan, pressure is building for a shift. If they surprise with a hike, the yen could rip higher. But a dovish hold? That could be the greenlight for USD/JPY to break out toward multi-year highs.
USD/JPY is back at resistance around 149.00 — a level that rejected two weeks ago. A break and retest could open the door toward 151.00, while a rejection might send us back toward 146.00 support. This week’s calendar is stacked, with both the Fed and BoJ set to announce rate decisions.
Markets expect the Fed to hold steady at 4.5% on Wednesday. The bigger question is the forward guidance. Traders are watching for any hint of a cut in September — something that may already be partially priced in. Trump’s comments calling for immediate rate cuts add to the noise, but Powell’s tone will ultimately drive the move.
The Bank of Japan meets a day later. Another hold is expected, but with inflation rising in Japan, pressure is building for a shift. If they surprise with a hike, the yen could rip higher. But a dovish hold? That could be the greenlight for USD/JPY to break out toward multi-year highs.
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GBP/USD – It Broke
GBP/USD just cracked through a key level at 1.3400 — also the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. That level had acted as strong support for weeks, but the break opens the door to 1.3200 as the next zone below.
Weak UK data has shifted focus from inflation to slowing growth. June’s retail sales came in soft, and PMIs haven’t impressed either. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate cut from the Bank of England in August, with odds rising for another cut later this year.
Meanwhile, the US dollar caught a bid after a US-EU trade deal was reached. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and helped ease trade war concerns just ahead of the deadline — giving the dollar an extra tailwind.
GBP/USD just cracked through a key level at 1.3400 — also the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. That level had acted as strong support for weeks, but the break opens the door to 1.3200 as the next zone below.
Weak UK data has shifted focus from inflation to slowing growth. June’s retail sales came in soft, and PMIs haven’t impressed either. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate cut from the Bank of England in August, with odds rising for another cut later this year.
Meanwhile, the US dollar caught a bid after a US-EU trade deal was reached. The agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and helped ease trade war concerns just ahead of the deadline — giving the dollar an extra tailwind.
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sentiment
The dollar has been staging a quiet comeback — and it’s starting to show in positioning.
Retail traders are still leaning long on most major USD pairs:
USDCHF – 78% long
NZDUSD – 68% long
AUDUSD – 63% long
EURUSD – 59% long
GBPUSD – 54% long
That’s a clear tilt against the recent dollar strength — a potential contrarian signal.
Meanwhile, USDJPY and USDCAD are more balanced, with positioning nearly 50/50.
EdgeFinder bias leans bearish on many of these pairs, but retail positioning is skewed. Don’t forget — when the crowd gets too one-sided, the market tends to punish them.
Keep watching retail sentiment as the Fed and BoJ rate decisions approach. Momentum could shift fast
The dollar has been staging a quiet comeback — and it’s starting to show in positioning.
Retail traders are still leaning long on most major USD pairs:
USDCHF – 78% long
NZDUSD – 68% long
AUDUSD – 63% long
EURUSD – 59% long
GBPUSD – 54% long
That’s a clear tilt against the recent dollar strength — a potential contrarian signal.
Meanwhile, USDJPY and USDCAD are more balanced, with positioning nearly 50/50.
EdgeFinder bias leans bearish on many of these pairs, but retail positioning is skewed. Don’t forget — when the crowd gets too one-sided, the market tends to punish them.
Keep watching retail sentiment as the Fed and BoJ rate decisions approach. Momentum could shift fast
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