USD/CAD – Key Support Retested
USD/CAD is once again testing the 1.36000 handle — a level that has served as strong support three times in recent months. This area also aligns with a rising trendline from July 2023, adding technical significance. If price holds, the pair could remain range-bound between 1.36000 and 1.38000. However, a decisive break lower might signal the early stages of a longer-term bearish reversal.
Fundamentals have quieted compared to earlier this year, but the August 1st tariff deadline remains a key risk. Canada continues to face scrutiny in recent trade talks, and when headlines turn negative, USD/CAD has tended to spike temporarily. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is at a major inflection point, and its next move could influence the broader USD direction going forward.
USD/CAD is once again testing the 1.36000 handle — a level that has served as strong support three times in recent months. This area also aligns with a rising trendline from July 2023, adding technical significance. If price holds, the pair could remain range-bound between 1.36000 and 1.38000. However, a decisive break lower might signal the early stages of a longer-term bearish reversal.
Fundamentals have quieted compared to earlier this year, but the August 1st tariff deadline remains a key risk. Canada continues to face scrutiny in recent trade talks, and when headlines turn negative, USD/CAD has tended to spike temporarily. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is at a major inflection point, and its next move could influence the broader USD direction going forward.
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Gold – Pulls Back After Three-Day Rally
Gold futures edged lower to $3,400.0 after a strong 3 day, though the metal remains up nearly 3% on the week and 30% YTD. Price is currently testing a key resistance level — a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, while a rejection may reinforce the zone’s strength.
The pullback follows news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal, which eased market concerns and temporarily reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The agreement also signals potential progress ahead of the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, calming broader trade tension fears.
Despite the dip, gold remains fundamentally supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, global trade uncertainty, and speculation around Fed policy. Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent have also eased concerns over the central bank’s independence, though investors remain on watch for further Fed signals
Gold futures edged lower to $3,400.0 after a strong 3 day, though the metal remains up nearly 3% on the week and 30% YTD. Price is currently testing a key resistance level — a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, while a rejection may reinforce the zone’s strength.
The pullback follows news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal, which eased market concerns and temporarily reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The agreement also signals potential progress ahead of the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, calming broader trade tension fears.
Despite the dip, gold remains fundamentally supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, global trade uncertainty, and speculation around Fed policy. Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent have also eased concerns over the central bank’s independence, though investors remain on watch for further Fed signals
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EU Economic Heatmap
All eyes are on the Eurozone tomorrow with PMIs and the ECB rate decision set to drop — two key catalysts that could shape the next move for the Euro.
PMIs are expected to tick slightly higher, which would be a welcomed sign for growth across the bloc. Recent prints have been mixed, but an upside surprise could reinforce confidence in the recovery narrative.
As for the ECB, rates are expected to remain unchanged. Inflation has cooled, but not convincingly enough to trigger another cut — especially with sticky services prices and global tariff uncertainties in play. The press conference afterward will be key for any guidance on the September meeting
All eyes are on the Eurozone tomorrow with PMIs and the ECB rate decision set to drop — two key catalysts that could shape the next move for the Euro.
PMIs are expected to tick slightly higher, which would be a welcomed sign for growth across the bloc. Recent prints have been mixed, but an upside surprise could reinforce confidence in the recovery narrative.
As for the ECB, rates are expected to remain unchanged. Inflation has cooled, but not convincingly enough to trigger another cut — especially with sticky services prices and global tariff uncertainties in play. The press conference afterward will be key for any guidance on the September meeting
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🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does a support level often indicate?
What does a support level often indicate?
Anonymous Quiz
83%
Buying interest
2%
Overvaluation
2%
Volatility
12%
Trend reversal
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EUR/USD – Rates Held, Uncertainty Remains
EUR/USD saw some recovery this week, trading as high as 1.17900 before breaking a short-term trendline this morning following the ECB’s latest decision.
The central bank held rates at 2.15% — no surprise there. After four cuts already this year, the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, especially with inflation sitting right on target at 2%. But it’s not just inflation they’re watching.
Traders are keeping a close eye on trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the looming August 1 tariff deadline. The base case is a 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods, though some are still holding out hope for a smaller deal or targeted exemptions.
That cloud of uncertainty is hanging over the Euro, even as economic data like PMIs come in relatively stable. Whether EUR/USD holds or breaks lower from here may depend on how those trade headlines evolve
EUR/USD saw some recovery this week, trading as high as 1.17900 before breaking a short-term trendline this morning following the ECB’s latest decision.
The central bank held rates at 2.15% — no surprise there. After four cuts already this year, the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, especially with inflation sitting right on target at 2%. But it’s not just inflation they’re watching.
Traders are keeping a close eye on trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the looming August 1 tariff deadline. The base case is a 15% U.S. tariff on EU goods, though some are still holding out hope for a smaller deal or targeted exemptions.
That cloud of uncertainty is hanging over the Euro, even as economic data like PMIs come in relatively stable. Whether EUR/USD holds or breaks lower from here may depend on how those trade headlines evolve
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USD/JPY – Bounce from Support
USD/JPY found buyers at 146.000, a level that’s acted as solid support. On the upside, 148.000 remains the key resistance to watch — price has struggled to break and hold above that zone.
Fundamentally, the tone out of Japan has turned a bit more optimistic. Deputy Governor Uchida noted that the trade deal with the U.S. has helped reduce economic uncertainty, which opened the door to speculation around potential rate hikes down the line.
Still, political clouds linger. With the ruling coalition weakened after Sunday’s election, and talk of a possible no-confidence motion, the yen could remain under pressure in the short-term.
USD/JPY found buyers at 146.000, a level that’s acted as solid support. On the upside, 148.000 remains the key resistance to watch — price has struggled to break and hold above that zone.
Fundamentally, the tone out of Japan has turned a bit more optimistic. Deputy Governor Uchida noted that the trade deal with the U.S. has helped reduce economic uncertainty, which opened the door to speculation around potential rate hikes down the line.
Still, political clouds linger. With the ruling coalition weakened after Sunday’s election, and talk of a possible no-confidence motion, the yen could remain under pressure in the short-term.
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Economic Surprise Meter – Quiet Climb from USD
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
The EdgeFinder’s Economic Surprise Meter shows a steady pickup in U.S. economic strength — with the USD now at 62%, slowly grinding higher. That move’s been quietly mirrored in price action across dollar pairs.
Today’s key data:
🇪🇺 EU PMI's
🇪🇺 EU Rate Decision
🇬🇧 UK PMI's
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
These releases have the potential to shake up charts and sentiment across the board.
Fundamentals matter — and the EdgeFinder helps you stay one step ahead. Don’t miss the next market move.
🔥15❤7👍5
🛎️ Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When inflation is high, central banks often…
When inflation is high, central banks often…
Anonymous Quiz
40%
Cut interest rates
53%
Raise interest rates
6%
Sell gold
1%
Intervene in FX
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Gold – Pulling Back After Rejection
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
Gold is on pace for the third straight session of losses after a strong rally earlier in the week. Price rejected the $3,440 resistance zone — now marking the fourth failed attempt at that level. Gold is back near the middle of its defined range, an area where it’s historically seen consolidation and choppy behavior as the market awaits new direction.
One potential catalyst? Progress on a U.S.–EU trade deal. Headlines suggest the two sides are nearing an agreement, modeled somewhat after Washington’s recent pact with Japan. The deal would include a 15% tariff — lower than the originally proposed 30% — and is easing safe-haven demand for now.
Looking ahead, gold may remain rangebound unless we get a surprise shift in risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, or trade headlines
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GBP/USD – Growth Concerns Take Center Stage
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
The pound is pulling back, now trading near 1.3430 after stalling out around the 1.3580 mark — a two-week high. The pair is sitting on a familiar support zone, an area that’s held up in the past. But price action on the daily chart is hinting at a potential head and shoulders top. A confirmed break lower could open the door toward the next key level at 1.3200.
Recent UK data has shifted the narrative from inflation to growth. June retail sales rebounded by just 0.9% after May’s drop was revised even lower. Core sales missed as well, rising only 0.6% versus expectations of 1.2%. Despite weather-driven strength in food sales, the broader rebound remains weak.
With soft PMIs and sluggish consumer data, markets are leaning toward a BoE rate cut in August, with another potentially on deck before year-end.
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EdgeFinder's FX Scanner - GBP/USD
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
GBP/USD pulled back following a weaker-than-expected UK retail sales report and fading inflation fears. Core retail sales also disappointed, missing forecasts
This shift in tone — from inflation concerns to growth worries — is weighing on the pound. Combined with soft PMIs and a rising unemployment rate, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in August. The EdgeFinder reflects this with a score of -7, confirming strong bearish pressure
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows institutions are lightening up on GBP exposure, while USD positioning leans slightly bearish but improved
- Retail Sentiment: Mixed
- Economic Growth Metrics: Retail sales (-2), services PMI (-1), and unemployment (-2) all paint a weak outlook
- Interest Rate Outlook: GBP sees a -1 score as cut expectations increase, while USD scores a +1 amid steadier Fed guidance
Markets will be watching closely for more clarity in next week’s BoE guidance and US data releases
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