USD/JPY – Election Results
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
The Yen rose sharply Monday after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house. USD/JPY dropped nearly 0.9%, with the pair trading near 147.50.
With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, the Yen became the focal point for political risk sentiment. Despite the election result being mostly priced in, the market reacted with a defensive bid for the Yen. USD/JPY had previously hit a 3.5-month high near 149.19 last week.
While Prime Minister Ishiba vows to remain in power, internal and external pressures are mounting — including uncertainty around the U.S.-Japan tariff deadline on August 1. Markets will be watching Tuesday’s Tokyo open closely for the full reaction
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GOLD – Safe Haven Strength Returns
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
Gold surged past $3,400, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-June. The catalyst? A weaker dollar, falling Treasury yields, and growing demand for safe havens as trade tensions heat up.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick maintained optimism about a deal with the EU but made one thing clear — the August 1 tariff deadline is a hard line. While talks may continue, the baseline 10% tariff is “definitely staying,” at least for now.
The EU, in turn, is preparing its own set of countermeasures, suggesting tensions could get worse before they get better.
Meanwhile, rate cut expectations have crept higher again, with markets now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed move in September. Add in speculation around Fed leadership changes, and it’s no surprise gold is catching a strong bid.
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EdgeFinder's COT Data History - Gold
Over the last few weeks, large speculators have added to their long positions, now sitting at over 270K contracts — the highest level since early May. Meanwhile, shorts have decreased slightly, keeping the long percentage firmly above 82%. Net positioning continues to climb, now at 213,115 contracts.
This steady uptick in long interest aligns with gold’s recent breakout past $3,400, reinforcing the idea that institutional players are positioning defensively amid global uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
COT data isn’t a timing tool, but it helps us understand where the “big money” is leaning — and right now, they’re leaning bullish
Over the last few weeks, large speculators have added to their long positions, now sitting at over 270K contracts — the highest level since early May. Meanwhile, shorts have decreased slightly, keeping the long percentage firmly above 82%. Net positioning continues to climb, now at 213,115 contracts.
This steady uptick in long interest aligns with gold’s recent breakout past $3,400, reinforcing the idea that institutional players are positioning defensively amid global uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
COT data isn’t a timing tool, but it helps us understand where the “big money” is leaning — and right now, they’re leaning bullish
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What’s a sign of a disciplined trader?
What’s a sign of a disciplined trader?
Anonymous Quiz
97%
Follows a trading plan
1%
Doubles down after losses
1%
Trades every setup they see
1%
Avoids stop loss
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DXY – Waiting for Clarity
The Dollar traded quietly overnight, with most major pairs seeing limited movement. DXY is sitting right at a key level — a spot that could act as support if it holds, or turn into resistance if price slips below.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning. His comments may offer some much-needed insight into where interest rates are headed and how the Fed is thinking about the ongoing tariff situation. For now, DXY remains in limbo — waiting for direction.
The Dollar traded quietly overnight, with most major pairs seeing limited movement. DXY is sitting right at a key level — a spot that could act as support if it holds, or turn into resistance if price slips below.
All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning. His comments may offer some much-needed insight into where interest rates are headed and how the Fed is thinking about the ongoing tariff situation. For now, DXY remains in limbo — waiting for direction.
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AUD/USD – More Easing to Come
AUD/USD is trading just beneath a key higher-time-frame resistance zone, with downside pressure continuing to build. Price action has been leaning bearish, and EdgeFinder aligns with a strong -7 score.
Fundamentally, RBA meeting minutes confirmed that more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. The July decision to pause at 3.85% came down to optics — officials didn’t want to ease too aggressively.
But that hesitation might be short-lived. Since then, unemployment unexpectedly jumped to a 3.5-year high, giving the central bank more reason to act. Markets are now fully pricing in a cut to 3.60% at the August 12 meeting, with rates seen dropping further by year-end
AUD/USD is trading just beneath a key higher-time-frame resistance zone, with downside pressure continuing to build. Price action has been leaning bearish, and EdgeFinder aligns with a strong -7 score.
Fundamentally, RBA meeting minutes confirmed that more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. The July decision to pause at 3.85% came down to optics — officials didn’t want to ease too aggressively.
But that hesitation might be short-lived. Since then, unemployment unexpectedly jumped to a 3.5-year high, giving the central bank more reason to act. Markets are now fully pricing in a cut to 3.60% at the August 12 meeting, with rates seen dropping further by year-end
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EdgeFinder's Forex Scanner
AUD/USD continues to slide, trading just beneath a major resistance zone with price action leaning lower — and EdgeFinder confirms the bearish bias with a -7 score.
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows 82% of institutional positions are short AUD.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021.
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs both missed, adding more fuel to the downside case.
- Interest Rate Score is also bearish for the AUD as markets fully price in an August rate cut — with more expected by year-end.
AUD/USD continues to slide, trading just beneath a major resistance zone with price action leaning lower — and EdgeFinder confirms the bearish bias with a -7 score.
Looking under the hood:
- COT Data shows 82% of institutional positions are short AUD.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021.
- Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs both missed, adding more fuel to the downside case.
- Interest Rate Score is also bearish for the AUD as markets fully price in an August rate cut — with more expected by year-end.
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We've created an organized list of our recommended brokers on our website. Browse brokers by country or product and read our full broker reviews!
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What usually drives USD/JPY moves the most?
What usually drives USD/JPY moves the most?
Anonymous Quiz
9%
Oil prices
72%
Interest rate differentials
6%
S&P 500
13%
Trade volume
USD/CAD – Key Support Retested
USD/CAD is once again testing the 1.36000 handle — a level that has served as strong support three times in recent months. This area also aligns with a rising trendline from July 2023, adding technical significance. If price holds, the pair could remain range-bound between 1.36000 and 1.38000. However, a decisive break lower might signal the early stages of a longer-term bearish reversal.
Fundamentals have quieted compared to earlier this year, but the August 1st tariff deadline remains a key risk. Canada continues to face scrutiny in recent trade talks, and when headlines turn negative, USD/CAD has tended to spike temporarily. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is at a major inflection point, and its next move could influence the broader USD direction going forward.
USD/CAD is once again testing the 1.36000 handle — a level that has served as strong support three times in recent months. This area also aligns with a rising trendline from July 2023, adding technical significance. If price holds, the pair could remain range-bound between 1.36000 and 1.38000. However, a decisive break lower might signal the early stages of a longer-term bearish reversal.
Fundamentals have quieted compared to earlier this year, but the August 1st tariff deadline remains a key risk. Canada continues to face scrutiny in recent trade talks, and when headlines turn negative, USD/CAD has tended to spike temporarily. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is at a major inflection point, and its next move could influence the broader USD direction going forward.
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Gold – Pulls Back After Three-Day Rally
Gold futures edged lower to $3,400.0 after a strong 3 day, though the metal remains up nearly 3% on the week and 30% YTD. Price is currently testing a key resistance level — a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, while a rejection may reinforce the zone’s strength.
The pullback follows news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal, which eased market concerns and temporarily reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The agreement also signals potential progress ahead of the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, calming broader trade tension fears.
Despite the dip, gold remains fundamentally supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, global trade uncertainty, and speculation around Fed policy. Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent have also eased concerns over the central bank’s independence, though investors remain on watch for further Fed signals
Gold futures edged lower to $3,400.0 after a strong 3 day, though the metal remains up nearly 3% on the week and 30% YTD. Price is currently testing a key resistance level — a breakout could trigger a short squeeze, while a rejection may reinforce the zone’s strength.
The pullback follows news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal, which eased market concerns and temporarily reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The agreement also signals potential progress ahead of the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, calming broader trade tension fears.
Despite the dip, gold remains fundamentally supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, global trade uncertainty, and speculation around Fed policy. Recent comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent have also eased concerns over the central bank’s independence, though investors remain on watch for further Fed signals
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