🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What is CPI meant to measure?
What is CPI meant to measure?
Anonymous Quiz
8%
Employment
78%
Inflation
6%
GDP
8%
Interest Rates
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NASDAQ - No Ceiling in Sight
Nasdaq continues its climb, now trading near $23,000 and printing fresh all-time highs. After clearing the $22,000 resistance, price hasn’t looked back — offering little in the way of clean pullback entries. With no historical resistance levels left, it’s uncharted territory.
Fundamentally, the broader market has remained resilient despite headline pressure — from tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions, internal political concerns, and heavy speculative bets against it. Through it all, equities have powered higher, brushing off risk and narrowing focus back on the hard data.
With U.S. CPI up next, markets are watching closely. This print could reshape expectations around the Fed’s timeline. If inflation comes in hot, rate cut hopes may get pushed out — if not, risk assets might keep running. Either way, this leg of the rally is running light on resistance, but data will decide direction.
Nasdaq continues its climb, now trading near $23,000 and printing fresh all-time highs. After clearing the $22,000 resistance, price hasn’t looked back — offering little in the way of clean pullback entries. With no historical resistance levels left, it’s uncharted territory.
Fundamentally, the broader market has remained resilient despite headline pressure — from tariff escalations, geopolitical tensions, internal political concerns, and heavy speculative bets against it. Through it all, equities have powered higher, brushing off risk and narrowing focus back on the hard data.
With U.S. CPI up next, markets are watching closely. This print could reshape expectations around the Fed’s timeline. If inflation comes in hot, rate cut hopes may get pushed out — if not, risk assets might keep running. Either way, this leg of the rally is running light on resistance, but data will decide direction.
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USD/JPY - Back to Where It All Started
USD/JPY is trading just shy of 148.000, nearing the highs seen before the April 2nd tariff headlines shook the market. The pair has shown notable relative strength compared to other Dollar pairs, and now faces a key resistance level at 148.000 — a spot traders are watching closely.
Fundamentally, today’s U.S. CPI release is the main driver. The print could shape the Fed’s rate cut timeline. A hotter-than-expected number could give the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer, keeping the Dollar bid. A cooler CPI, on the other hand, might accelerate expectations for a cut — putting pressure on USD.
This release will offer early clues on whether interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Japan will widen or compress. A wider spread extends the life of the carry trade, supporting the pair. A narrower spread weakens that appeal — and could invite a pullback.
USD/JPY is trading just shy of 148.000, nearing the highs seen before the April 2nd tariff headlines shook the market. The pair has shown notable relative strength compared to other Dollar pairs, and now faces a key resistance level at 148.000 — a spot traders are watching closely.
Fundamentally, today’s U.S. CPI release is the main driver. The print could shape the Fed’s rate cut timeline. A hotter-than-expected number could give the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer, keeping the Dollar bid. A cooler CPI, on the other hand, might accelerate expectations for a cut — putting pressure on USD.
This release will offer early clues on whether interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Japan will widen or compress. A wider spread extends the life of the carry trade, supporting the pair. A narrower spread weakens that appeal — and could invite a pullback.
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EdgeFinder 's CPI Chart - Turning Point or Continuation?
Today’s spotlight is on U.S. CPI — a key inflation gauge that could shift the market narrative. This is the Fed’s preferred metric to track inflationary trends. It measures the average change in prices excluding food and energy, helping policymakers focus on underlying inflation.
We’re currently sitting at 2.4%, the same level where inflation pivoted higher last October. The Fed’s target remains 2%, and anything above that keeps rate cuts on ice. Today’s print could either validate patience — or open the door for easing.
A hot CPI print could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, supporting the Dollar and pressuring equities. A cooler read would be a green light for rate cut speculators — potentially weakening the Dollar and lifting risk assets.
Let’s see how the EdgeFinder adjusts as the data hits.
Today’s spotlight is on U.S. CPI — a key inflation gauge that could shift the market narrative. This is the Fed’s preferred metric to track inflationary trends. It measures the average change in prices excluding food and energy, helping policymakers focus on underlying inflation.
We’re currently sitting at 2.4%, the same level where inflation pivoted higher last October. The Fed’s target remains 2%, and anything above that keeps rate cuts on ice. Today’s print could either validate patience — or open the door for easing.
A hot CPI print could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, supporting the Dollar and pressuring equities. A cooler read would be a green light for rate cut speculators — potentially weakening the Dollar and lifting risk assets.
Let’s see how the EdgeFinder adjusts as the data hits.
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do traders watch the VIX?
Why do traders watch the VIX?
Anonymous Quiz
9%
Predicts inflation
6%
Tracks interest rates
6%
Tracks growth
79%
Measures volatility
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EUR/USD – Post-CPI Breakout
EUR/USD dropped 85 pips after yesterday’s mixed CPI report, snapping out of its descending channel and finding support at 1.16000. That level held briefly in the past on lower timeframes — making it a key level to watch. A break below could open the door to 1.15000, while a bounce higher could invite a retest of 1.18000.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s next move hinges on this week’s remaining data: PPI, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. On the Euro side, markets are still digesting the 30% US tariff set to kick in August 1st.
Upcoming US data will be the catalyst for whether EUR/USD sees follow-through or stalls here.
EUR/USD dropped 85 pips after yesterday’s mixed CPI report, snapping out of its descending channel and finding support at 1.16000. That level held briefly in the past on lower timeframes — making it a key level to watch. A break below could open the door to 1.15000, while a bounce higher could invite a retest of 1.18000.
Fundamentally, the Dollar’s next move hinges on this week’s remaining data: PPI, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. On the Euro side, markets are still digesting the 30% US tariff set to kick in August 1st.
Upcoming US data will be the catalyst for whether EUR/USD sees follow-through or stalls here.
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US10Y – Sticky Again
The US 10-Year Yield is holding firm above 4.48%, sitting near a five-week high. Yields climbed Tuesday after mixed CPI data prompted traders to ease up on their Fed rate cut bets.
While headline inflation came in line with higher, core CPI softened, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Still, the Fed isn’t ready to pivot just yet. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the need to keep rates steady longer, especially with the added price pressures coming from Trump’s new tariffs.
Today’s PPI release will offer more insight. If producer prices show signs of acceleration, it could reinforce the case for a higher-for-longer environment.
Markets are now pricing in fewer cuts this year, with September odds just above 50%.
Yields at these levels are a key compass for rate expectations — and they’ll continue to be in focus as more data rolls in.
The US 10-Year Yield is holding firm above 4.48%, sitting near a five-week high. Yields climbed Tuesday after mixed CPI data prompted traders to ease up on their Fed rate cut bets.
While headline inflation came in line with higher, core CPI softened, adding uncertainty to the outlook. Still, the Fed isn’t ready to pivot just yet. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the need to keep rates steady longer, especially with the added price pressures coming from Trump’s new tariffs.
Today’s PPI release will offer more insight. If producer prices show signs of acceleration, it could reinforce the case for a higher-for-longer environment.
Markets are now pricing in fewer cuts this year, with September odds just above 50%.
Yields at these levels are a key compass for rate expectations — and they’ll continue to be in focus as more data rolls in.
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EdgeFinder's EU Economic Heatmap
The Euro has seen some downside this week — with a mixed CPI reaction and fresh tariffs from the US adding pressure.
The EdgeFinder’s EU Economic Heatmap still paints a fairly resilient picture. Growth, PMIs, and employment change all surprised to the upside, while the CPI sits at the ECB’s target of 2%. The lone weak spot? A slight uptick in unemployment to 6.3%.
Despite near-term selling, 83% of recent Eurozone data points have been classified as bullish for both the Euro and stocks. While markets are focused on geopolitics and short-term headlines, the underlying economic strength may matter more over time.
A pair to watch — especially with more US data due this week
The Euro has seen some downside this week — with a mixed CPI reaction and fresh tariffs from the US adding pressure.
The EdgeFinder’s EU Economic Heatmap still paints a fairly resilient picture. Growth, PMIs, and employment change all surprised to the upside, while the CPI sits at the ECB’s target of 2%. The lone weak spot? A slight uptick in unemployment to 6.3%.
Despite near-term selling, 83% of recent Eurozone data points have been classified as bullish for both the Euro and stocks. While markets are focused on geopolitics and short-term headlines, the underlying economic strength may matter more over time.
A pair to watch — especially with more US data due this week
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does GDP measure?
What does GDP measure?
Anonymous Quiz
4%
Stock market performance
3%
Interest rates
88%
Economic growth
5%
Inflation
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USD/CHF – Eyeing the Next Breakout?
USD/CHF broke out of last week’s tight range after pushing above 0.7994, gaining momentum. That breakout gave bulls room to run, and today we’re seeing price test a major resistance zone between 0.8039 and 0.8055.
If buyers stay in control, the next upside levels to watch are the 200-period moving average on the 4H near 0.8077, a key zone that could decide whether this bounce has more legs.
Since the May peak near 0.8475, USD/CHF trended down aggressively, bottoming out near 0.7871, its lowest level since 2011. This recent bounce is notable, but it’ll take more than a couple green candles to flip the broader trend.
For now, near-term support sits at 0.8017, with stronger structure back near 0.7986–0.7994 — the area that kicked off this week’s move.
USD/CHF broke out of last week’s tight range after pushing above 0.7994, gaining momentum. That breakout gave bulls room to run, and today we’re seeing price test a major resistance zone between 0.8039 and 0.8055.
If buyers stay in control, the next upside levels to watch are the 200-period moving average on the 4H near 0.8077, a key zone that could decide whether this bounce has more legs.
Since the May peak near 0.8475, USD/CHF trended down aggressively, bottoming out near 0.7871, its lowest level since 2011. This recent bounce is notable, but it’ll take more than a couple green candles to flip the broader trend.
For now, near-term support sits at 0.8017, with stronger structure back near 0.7986–0.7994 — the area that kicked off this week’s move.
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GBP/USD – Nearing Support
GBP/USD is approaching the 1.34000 zone — a level that held mid-June. The pair has been sliding since hitting resistance at 1.37000, and how price reacts here could give clues about trend continuation or a potential bounce. If this level breaks, the next support to watch is 1.32000.
Markets whipsawed yesterday on rumors that the White House was planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The speculation sparked a Dollar selloff — but once debunked, the DXY quickly recovered.
Today’s focus is on U.S. Retail Sales — a key measure of consumer spending. A strong print would support the case for a resilient economy and give the Dollar a lift. On the flip side, a weaker number could indicate rate cuts
GBP/USD is approaching the 1.34000 zone — a level that held mid-June. The pair has been sliding since hitting resistance at 1.37000, and how price reacts here could give clues about trend continuation or a potential bounce. If this level breaks, the next support to watch is 1.32000.
Markets whipsawed yesterday on rumors that the White House was planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The speculation sparked a Dollar selloff — but once debunked, the DXY quickly recovered.
Today’s focus is on U.S. Retail Sales — a key measure of consumer spending. A strong print would support the case for a resilient economy and give the Dollar a lift. On the flip side, a weaker number could indicate rate cuts
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EdgeFinder's Retail Sales Chart – Surprise Higher
Retail Sales data just dropped — and it was a beat. The market was expecting a modest 0.1% increase, but the actual number came in hot at 0.6%.
Retail Sales tracks consumer spending, which makes up a large portion of U.S. GDP. Strong data typically signals a healthy economy and can delay the need for Fed rate cuts — while weak numbers often point to slowing growth and rising recession risks.
This upside surprise strengthens the case for a more cautious Fed. With inflation still above target and now consumer spending showing resilience, policymakers may have more reason to pause or delay cuts. It also gives the Dollar some tailwind — especially heading into more key data later this week.
Direction-neutral, but worth watching how the market digests this beat
Retail Sales data just dropped — and it was a beat. The market was expecting a modest 0.1% increase, but the actual number came in hot at 0.6%.
Retail Sales tracks consumer spending, which makes up a large portion of U.S. GDP. Strong data typically signals a healthy economy and can delay the need for Fed rate cuts — while weak numbers often point to slowing growth and rising recession risks.
This upside surprise strengthens the case for a more cautious Fed. With inflation still above target and now consumer spending showing resilience, policymakers may have more reason to pause or delay cuts. It also gives the Dollar some tailwind — especially heading into more key data later this week.
Direction-neutral, but worth watching how the market digests this beat
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