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US Economic Heatmap – Not Good, Not Terrible

The Eco Surprise Meter is ticking higher for the US — a positive shift. The broader economic picture has improved slightly, and correlations are starting to stabilize. CPI came in softer, which is generally a win for equities but a loss for the Dollar.

Equities like lower interest rates — cheaper borrowing, better margins, more room to grow
The Dollar, on the other hand, loses ground on a weaker CPI print. As the Fed moves toward rate cuts, yields come down, and that lowers returns for fixed income investors. Naturally, money starts rotating out of bonds and into risk-on assets like equities.

Also, tariff headlines have stabilized and price reactions have been suppressed. It seems like we're moving back to "data being data." I believe we're at a shifting point — In a good way.

- Alan

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in mostly neutral - for the first time in many months.

This survey asks respondents if they're feeling bullish, neutral, or bearish on stocks. For months, the crowd has been bearish on stocks.

It looks like the bears finally threw in the towell... Sentiment in the middle now.

- Nick

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USOIL – Big Breakout

As mentioned before, USOIL was ranging near resistance while holding above the 50-day moving average. A technical breakout felt likely — and it played out. At the time, the EdgeFinder gave a strong +6 reading, backing the bullish trend.

Initially, the key drivers were Ukraine-Russia tensions, US sanctions on Russian oil, and seasonal demand increases. Now there's more fuel to the fire — last night, Israel-Iran tensions escalated following strikes.

In my view, if tensions continue to rise, we could see oil stay elevated or push a bit higher. But trading at these premium levels is risky. If you're in the move — great. If not — oh well.

⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- Conflicts de-escalate
- Sanctions get rolled back

⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- Geopolitical tensions worsen

- Alan

VIX – A Gauge Into Risk

The VIX spiked briefly last night on renewed tensions in the Middle East — an expected reaction. For context, the VIX measures expected volatility in the SP500. When geopolitical risks rise, uncertainty floods in, and the VIX tends to jump. Usually, big price fluctuations follow a VIX spike.

Personally, I like using the VIX as a pulse check — are we bracing for more violent swings? Or are things starting to cool off? It’s not a perfect signal, but it helps paint a picture of where sentiment stands.

- Alan

With conflict in the Middle East - Rising VIX, OIL, Gold, CHF, JPY, and USD. It's no surprise why the EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge shows we are in a Risk-Off environment for now.

Keeping track of these assets and world news could be a time consuming task. With software you can get a quick gauge of the environment in real-time - in <30 seconds..

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GOLD – Cooling Off in the Middle East

Gold is currently sitting at a key level of resistance. A break and retest of this level could signal further upside, while a failure to break may suggest fading tensions.

Gold’s recent rally was driven by the Israel-Iran conflict. If tensions escalate, gold is likely to rally. If we see de-escalation, gold may pull back. Currently, safe havens are underperforming ahead of the market open, and I’m watching to see if we get continuation.

It’s important to note that this isn’t the first time these two countries have clashed, which may explain the muted reaction. However, if other nations get involved, we could see another risk-off spike.

– Alan

USOIL – Double Top or Pullback going higher?

OIL rallied massively Thursday night when the initial strikes took place in the Middle East. Topping out 12. Now – price is retracing the move potentially all the way down to the 200 Day MA.

OIL was a great breakout trade excluding the Israel-Iran conflict.
We had multiple fundamental confluences like: seasonal demand, Russia-Ukraine, COT buying, and technical confluences. The Israel-Iran was added fuel to the fire.

In my opinion, we could potentially pull back and get a buying opportunity. The most recent high on OIL could be a ceiling for future upside


- Alan

EdgeFinder's Risk On / Risk Off Gauge

Last Friday, the gauge showed us we are in risk-off trading. Since, traders are calling bluff on the Israel-Iran conflict for now. That's displayed by falling oil prices, falling VIX, and falling Gold. On the contrary - Risk assets are rising again.

For most assets - all major moves that occurred on Thursday/Friday have been retraced. Despite the bombshell headlines over the weekend, the reaction was short-lived.

We can keep an eye on the VIX and safe haven flows to see if things shift. Safe trading!

- Alan

AI-Generated Trade Setups 🤖
The EdgeFinder automatically sources and evaluates a wide range of market data, such as the COT report, economic figures, central bank forecasts, and more. Using an advanced trading AI, the EdgeFinder then assigns a bullish or bearish reading to your favorite currency pairs, indices, and gold!

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Gold Daily Chart:

Price looks priming for a breakout. Cooling inflation + cooling jobs data = rate cuts.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains highs.

Price action looks strong.

Watching for bullish setups...

- Nick

USDJPY – A choppy chart seeking direction

Technically USD/JPY has been sideways in a tight range for a month – currently sitting at the upper band of the range. USD/JPY rallied initially off Israel-Iran conflict, as USD regained its traditional safe haven status. Now – the pair is sitting flat at a level of resistance.

Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation is a revisit of last years events. It seems like the follow-through has stalled for the time being. Also, US saw a contracting retail sales print this morning.

In my opinion, I’d like to wait for the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week from: BoE, BoJ, SNB, and Fed all making moves this week.
I’d like to react after the data and target previous HTF support at 140 if the opportunity presents.

⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed

- Alan

USDCAD – A steep downtrend

Technically USD/CAD has been on a downward trajectory for some time. Like USDJPY, it’s approaching a big level support at around 1.34000 give or take. Hitting that level is probable given the overall Dollar trend.

Fundamentally the Israel-Iran situation dropped USDCAD as the CAD appreciated due to rising oil prices. CAD and OIL have a correlation to some degree. Stable/Uplifted oil prices could continue to give the CAD some strength.

In my opinion, I’d like to wait for after the Fed meeting and central bank actions this week. Also monitoring oil prices. If the Dollar gets a short-lived rally – there could be an opportunity to short into support.
I’m going to wait until all the upcoming data supports this

⚠️Risks to consider for bulls:
- Neutral-Calm narrative for Israel-Iran
- Neutral-Dovish Fed meeting
- Plummeting oil prices
⚠️Risks to consider for bears:
- “no going back” narrative in Israel-Iran conflict
- Hawkish Fed
- Rising oil prices

- Alan

US Retail Sales – Consumers Pulling Back?
Retail Sales MoM came in at -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast — a clear miss.

This confirms a short-term narrative: the consumer is starting to tighten up. Whether it’s due to higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation, or a cooling labor market — this data point suggests people are spending less. Not ideal if you're betting on continued economic resilience.

Markets are taking this as a signal that the Fed could stay dovish, or at the very least, avoid hawkish surprises. A weaker consumer generally weakens the Dollar, especially if more data confirms this trend.

I’m staying patient ahead of more Fed speak and jobless claims later this week before making any moves. Safe trading everyone!

- Alan

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DXY – At a Decision Point
The Dollar is hovering near a downward trendline that dates back to February 2nd. Sitting right on that trendline is the 50-Day Moving Average. Price action has stalled for now, just ahead of a major news day in the US. Holding below the trendline could signal continued bearish momentum, while a break above might hint at a short-term rally.

US jobless claims came in as expected. Later today, the Fed is set to announce its rate decision, which is widely anticipated to remain unchanged. The market will also be closely watching the FOMC press conference, with particular attention on the Fed's tone.

In my opinion, I’ll be watching out for potential fakeouts and instead waiting for a clear continuation in either direction.

⚠️ Risks to consider for bulls:
- A dovish Fed
- The US staying out of the Israel-Iran conflict

⚠️ Risks to consider for bears:
- A hawkish Fed, or signals that rates will be held higher for longer
- The US stepping into the Israel-Iran conflict

– Alan