Gold Daily Chart
Price still stuck in a bit of a range, but bouncing back sharply in the overnight session.
Continued uncertainty in Washington DC may continue to keep buyers interested, but sellers may be willing to take advantage of premium prices if we see a spike higher - due to relatively strong economic resiliency out of many major nations recently.
I remain neutral, but watching price action to see if buyers can get something going.
Bias: I think price will range sideways for longer.
- Nick
Price still stuck in a bit of a range, but bouncing back sharply in the overnight session.
Continued uncertainty in Washington DC may continue to keep buyers interested, but sellers may be willing to take advantage of premium prices if we see a spike higher - due to relatively strong economic resiliency out of many major nations recently.
I remain neutral, but watching price action to see if buyers can get something going.
Bias: I think price will range sideways for longer.
- Nick
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EUR/USD - Testing Resistance for the Fourth Time
The Euro found support at the 50 Day MA and is now retesting 1.141000
Possible Scenarios: If the Eurozone continues to see misses in economic data or continued revisions downward in data, there could be a slide for EUR/USD. Also, if the US prints an upbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI, it could also fuel a short-term decline in the Euro. On the contrary, if ISM Manufacturing PMI is a miss and the Euro holds above the key resistance, then a retest of the previous 1.15000 high is probable.
In my opinion upside could be limited. With recent misses in the EU and an expected positive print for the US today – the resistance level could hold solid. The EU is expecting a tick lower in inflation tomorrow.
Risks for bulls:
- Continued misses in economic data for the EU
- A tick lower in tomorrows inflation reading for EU
- Strong PMI’ for the US
Risks for bears:
- A break and retest of the 1.14100 resistance
- A miss in US PMI’s
- Negative US jobs data
-Alan
The Euro found support at the 50 Day MA and is now retesting 1.141000
Possible Scenarios: If the Eurozone continues to see misses in economic data or continued revisions downward in data, there could be a slide for EUR/USD. Also, if the US prints an upbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI, it could also fuel a short-term decline in the Euro. On the contrary, if ISM Manufacturing PMI is a miss and the Euro holds above the key resistance, then a retest of the previous 1.15000 high is probable.
In my opinion upside could be limited. With recent misses in the EU and an expected positive print for the US today – the resistance level could hold solid. The EU is expecting a tick lower in inflation tomorrow.
Risks for bulls:
- Continued misses in economic data for the EU
- A tick lower in tomorrows inflation reading for EU
- Strong PMI’ for the US
Risks for bears:
- A break and retest of the 1.14100 resistance
- A miss in US PMI’s
- Negative US jobs data
-Alan
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GOLD – Safe Havens demand returns
Last week – tariff threats between the US and China resurfaced, creating an appetite for safe havens. Investors flock to assets like Gold, JPY, and CHF when there’s uncertainty in the market.
Risks for bulls:
No progress is made; there’s a chance Gold can revisit 3,410.
Risks for bears:
Positive developments resurface, then we can retest support at 3,240.
In my opinion, the worst-case scenario was priced in at the high of 3,500. It would take threats worse than already mentioned to break that high.
-Alan
Last week – tariff threats between the US and China resurfaced, creating an appetite for safe havens. Investors flock to assets like Gold, JPY, and CHF when there’s uncertainty in the market.
Risks for bulls:
No progress is made; there’s a chance Gold can revisit 3,410.
Risks for bears:
Positive developments resurface, then we can retest support at 3,240.
In my opinion, the worst-case scenario was priced in at the high of 3,500. It would take threats worse than already mentioned to break that high.
-Alan
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DXY – The bottom may be priced in
DXY has been in a constant uptrend since Tuesday’s daily candle open – bouncing off of the 98.00 level. The last time the dollar tested this level, it reached resistance at 100.00. This level could a fresh higher-low on a higher time frame basis.
Fundamentally, dollar bullishness has been fueled by tariff deal progression. Specifically, last week US Court blocked certain tariffs. Markets saw that as a sign of relief. Then – US Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the lower court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect. Dollar faded off of that.
Now – Trump requested nations’ best offer by tomorrow.
In my opinion, a glimpse of progression tomorrow could continue to fuel dollar bullishness. Upcoming labor data will also influence the DXY’s direction.
🔴 Risks to consider for bulls:
- Bad labor market data
- No new deals tomorrow
🔴 Risks to consider for bears:
- Positive labor market data
- New countries being listed in the negotiation stage
- Alan
DXY has been in a constant uptrend since Tuesday’s daily candle open – bouncing off of the 98.00 level. The last time the dollar tested this level, it reached resistance at 100.00. This level could a fresh higher-low on a higher time frame basis.
Fundamentally, dollar bullishness has been fueled by tariff deal progression. Specifically, last week US Court blocked certain tariffs. Markets saw that as a sign of relief. Then – US Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the lower court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect. Dollar faded off of that.
Now – Trump requested nations’ best offer by tomorrow.
In my opinion, a glimpse of progression tomorrow could continue to fuel dollar bullishness. Upcoming labor data will also influence the DXY’s direction.
🔴 Risks to consider for bulls:
- Bad labor market data
- No new deals tomorrow
🔴 Risks to consider for bears:
- Positive labor market data
- New countries being listed in the negotiation stage
- Alan
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USD/CHF – The biggest beneficiary to tariff deals
USDCHF broke the downward trendline on May 27th and has stayed above it since. It also stayed above the support at 0.82000 after a fake-out. It could stay in a range and target the 50 Day MA at 0.83000.
USDCHF performs really well when tariff headlines are positive. CHF is a safe haven currency and investors flock to it when times are uncertain. On the contrary, CHF sees outflows when the market sees clarity and risk-on sentiment.
In my opinion, downside for USD/CHF is limited for three main reasons
1. Price action reacts strongly bullish when tariff headlines are good
2. The SNB does not want CHF to be too strong and are willing to intervene if it does so
3. CHF is a safe-haven and performs poorly with risk-on sentiment
* If there are no deals tomorrow, my bullish bias will be invalidated. Especially if US labor data comes in bad. Personally, I'm waiting for clarity.
USDCHF broke the downward trendline on May 27th and has stayed above it since. It also stayed above the support at 0.82000 after a fake-out. It could stay in a range and target the 50 Day MA at 0.83000.
USDCHF performs really well when tariff headlines are positive. CHF is a safe haven currency and investors flock to it when times are uncertain. On the contrary, CHF sees outflows when the market sees clarity and risk-on sentiment.
In my opinion, downside for USD/CHF is limited for three main reasons
1. Price action reacts strongly bullish when tariff headlines are good
2. The SNB does not want CHF to be too strong and are willing to intervene if it does so
3. CHF is a safe-haven and performs poorly with risk-on sentiment
* If there are no deals tomorrow, my bullish bias will be invalidated. Especially if US labor data comes in bad. Personally, I'm waiting for clarity.
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🔴Risks to consider for bulls:
- Shaky comments about deals tomorrow. No progress. No countries stepping up.
- Bad US labor data
🔴Risks to consider for bears:
- Countries are making deals
- Good US labor data
- Alan
- Shaky comments about deals tomorrow. No progress. No countries stepping up.
- Bad US labor data
🔴Risks to consider for bears:
- Countries are making deals
- Good US labor data
- Alan
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US2000 / RUSSELL Daily Chart:
We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning.
While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.
This type of environment is one in which I think small companies (like the ones in the US2000 / Russell) can really outperform.
Watching for a breakout in order to trail stops!
- Nick
We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning.
While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.
This type of environment is one in which I think small companies (like the ones in the US2000 / Russell) can really outperform.
Watching for a breakout in order to trail stops!
- Nick
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A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
US2000 / RUSSELL Daily Chart: We're pushing higher today on strong Job Openings data from this morning. While inflation seems to be continuing to cool, but economic data holds up well - it looks likely that we are in a goldilocks type environment for stocks.…
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Nick's S&P500 Trade Breakdown
August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
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August - September 2024
🟢 Entry Price: 5237.13
🔴 Exit Price: 5506.00
Trade Result: $25,882.39 (5.23%)
Technical Analysis:
Key level of support, strong upward trend on the weekly chart, rejection wick forming at structure. Stop loss placed below initially, but Nick was able to trail his stop loss into profit until eventually being taken out for a profit.
Fundamental Analysis:
A strong reported services PMI report indicates strength in the economy, while the fed still seems poised to cut this year. Additionally, corporate earnings remain strong and I believe that the AI tech trade still has legs this year. Additionally, COT data shows institutional money is still buying the S&P500.
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