NASDAQ Daily Chart:

The win streak continues! Price breaking out nicely here, off of today's cooler than expected CPI results.

Markets expected 2.4% CPI year over year, but instead saw 2.3% - a welcomed surprise!

This boosts probabilities that we could see a fed rate cut sooner, and most risk assets are pushing higher today.

- Nick

US OIL Daily Chart:

Oil tests key resistance at the 64.50 level.

With trade tensions smoothening a bit, and economies potentially less likely to go into a recession, oil has rebounded sharply.

I'm bullish on this one, looking for a breakout above this level for possible break / retest entries.

- Nick

My friend (and the very popular!) Tori Trades is stopping by our office for an in person interview this evening.

I would love to ask you guys for your help in preparing some of your top questions for her.

I will pick a few for our conversation, and your question may be featured in the upcoming video!

If you'd like to submit a question for us to discuss in the podcast episode, please leave your question here:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSca_pkK7UpYfpd37QjgixexVLgwF1fgR4iLyuQ-Q2JENBMDBQ/viewform?usp=header

- Nick

Where Do We Go From Here🤔
Post CPI Analysis🔥

Gold Daily Chart:

Technicals here are fascinating. Let's go through them together!

1. It appears we are going to close (for the first time in a while) below some significant support around 3200 an ounce. This suggests we may be trending down.

2. A key trendline above current price has been broken, and a longer term trendline on gold still remains a good distance below currently price... suggesting a retest could lead to further downside

3. The 200 day moving average may be acting as a magnet, and could suggest a larger decline

Technicals: bearish!
Fundamentals: Mixed.

- Nick

USDJPY Daily Chart:

After 3 days of pulling back, we're seeing UJ retest a key longer term trendline, which also lines up with a previous break of resistance.

EdgeFinder also has a bullish bias on this pair, with some weakness in economic data out of Japan recently as the drag on Yen's economic score.

I'll be watching for possible longs.

- Nick

Check out this chart.

It's the Bitcoin to Gold ratio...

When it is trending higher, it suggests a risk on environment, as traders prefer bitcoin over gold.

When it is trending lower, it suggests a risk off environment, as traders flock to gold.

Notice anything?

By the way, if you'd like to get a trial of the EdgeFinder, we're offering 30 day trials here:
https://form.jotform.com/233167835217055

Gold Daily Chart:

Bears still in control for now. 200 day moving average still looks like it is being targeted.

Today we are seeing a sharp reversal at the previous level of support we saw at 3220 on gold. In my view, technicals continue to look bearish in the short term.

Long term, I do believe there is probably some great buying opportunities at the 200 day moving average level, which gives us another 10-11% down from here.

- Nick

WARNING:

Put to call ratio has (for the first time in months) suggested that sentiment has become euphoric.

What this means:

Traders are much more aggressively buying calls, expecting further upside for stock market indices.

I personally view this as a contrarian bearish signal to stay cautious on stocks for the time being.

- Nick

S&P500 Daily Chart:

Looking for a retracement here as a possible buying opportunity.

EdgeFinder confirmation + nice technical reversal / breakout from the lows.

- Nick

I've noticed a lot of times when stock markets are going up, more people ask the question: "Why not just buy and hold?"

Recency bias is a very strong force in markets.

But remember: periods of poor performance in stocks do occur - and you could go a decade (or even multiple in the case of the great depression) before even returning to breakeven in your investments.

DXY Daily Chart:

Good morning traders! Moody's downgrades the US credit rating...

Dollar lower this morning, gold higher, as investors sell US assets in response.

Personally I don't think this will have too much of a lasting impact, as investors everywhere already knew that the national debt problem in the US was a big one.

Dollar may drift lower in the meantime. Resistance held at 101.50 on DXY. I think support should hold at the previous lows around 98.50

- Nick

Unemployment rate, last 4 years.

Something to note here: employment is still relatively strong, relative to historical averages around 5.7%.

Remember: the economy can handle a lot of stuff (including massive inflation in 2021-2022! ) as long as people remain employed and the economy is growing.

- Nick

By the way - if you'd like to try out our software tools to scan fundamental data & market sentiment data, apply for a trial here:

https://form.jotform.com/233167835217055

Gold daily chart:

I am still neutral, but we are definitely at a decision point here in price action.

Are we headed back to highs, or down towards 3k?

US economy holding up ok. Trade deals looking promising.

But, uncertainty is still high - and Trump is a live wire. Momentum on the weekly chart still favors bulls.

I'm watching close, but staying on the sidelines at this time. - Nick