Gold: Quick Surge, Mild Pullback
Gold (GLD) surged early this week, nearly reclaiming its all-time highs in just two trading sessions. But as equity markets tick higher this morning, gold is cooling off slightly—a typical sign of risk-on sentiment.
Investors will be listening closely for any hint that the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts later this year. If Powell acknowledges weakening growth while signaling more accommodative policy ahead, we could see renewed momentum in both equities and metals.
-Frank
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Gold (GLD) surged early this week, nearly reclaiming its all-time highs in just two trading sessions. But as equity markets tick higher this morning, gold is cooling off slightly—a typical sign of risk-on sentiment.
Investors will be listening closely for any hint that the Fed is leaning toward rate cuts later this year. If Powell acknowledges weakening growth while signaling more accommodative policy ahead, we could see renewed momentum in both equities and metals.
-Frank
Data from EdgeFinder
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Trump Pushes for US-UK Trade Deal
Trump’s tariff playbook is back in focus as US-UK trade talks pick up. AMD gets a boost, gold stalls, and the S&P faces a critical test. We break down what’s moving the market—and where the smart money’s going.
👉 Read Full Update Here: https://www.a1trading.com/trade-deal-between-us-and-uk/
Trump’s tariff playbook is back in focus as US-UK trade talks pick up. AMD gets a boost, gold stalls, and the S&P faces a critical test. We break down what’s moving the market—and where the smart money’s going.
👉 Read Full Update Here: https://www.a1trading.com/trade-deal-between-us-and-uk/
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US Oil, 4H Chart:
Are we bottoming? Price does seem to be trying to. We have key resistance being tested at the $60 level, and a series of higher lows forming.
Fundamentally, we saw a strong jobs report from the US, as well as upbeat figures in both services and manufacturing PMIs, suggesting the economy may be in a better spot than most had expected.
This could continue to bolster demand for oil.
I'm bullish, watching for setups.
- Nick
Are we bottoming? Price does seem to be trying to. We have key resistance being tested at the $60 level, and a series of higher lows forming.
Fundamentally, we saw a strong jobs report from the US, as well as upbeat figures in both services and manufacturing PMIs, suggesting the economy may be in a better spot than most had expected.
This could continue to bolster demand for oil.
I'm bullish, watching for setups.
- Nick
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S&P500 Daily Chart:
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
Path of least resistance looks higher. Bulls in full control now, taking out several key levels of resistance, and rallying a massive 20% from the lows.
Bull run seems like it wants to continue.
However, while I am bullish - I think a pullback is very reasonable, and what I personally will be looking for in order to enter long positions.
China x USA trade negotiations went very positively, boosting expectations that global trade will not be flying off a cliff! While there is still potential ramifications from tariffs, the worst case scenario seems to be more confidently behind us - driving risk assets and the US dollar higher.
- Nick
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Gold Daily Chart:
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
With the relieved trade tensions between the US & China, gold took a major hit.
Remember: gold typically performs well when people are nervous globally, but in this case it works in reverse: confidence restored = less demand for gold as an alternative.
While we sit at major support in wat has been a very strong uptrend, I personally remain neutral and unwilling to take longs.
- Nick
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USD Daily Chart (DXY)
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
Reminder that tomorrow is CPI day!
While trade deals are certainly dominating the market right now, let's not forget the macro.
If we get a "hot" CPI print, we could see the dollar strength - pushing off further the possibility of fed cutting rates
If we get a "cool" CPI print, we could see the dollar soften. However, I see limited downside at this time based on the trade deals progress we're seeing.
Risk is to the upside, in my personal view.
- Nick
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NASDAQ Daily Chart:
The win streak continues! Price breaking out nicely here, off of today's cooler than expected CPI results.
Markets expected 2.4% CPI year over year, but instead saw 2.3% - a welcomed surprise!
This boosts probabilities that we could see a fed rate cut sooner, and most risk assets are pushing higher today.
- Nick
The win streak continues! Price breaking out nicely here, off of today's cooler than expected CPI results.
Markets expected 2.4% CPI year over year, but instead saw 2.3% - a welcomed surprise!
This boosts probabilities that we could see a fed rate cut sooner, and most risk assets are pushing higher today.
- Nick
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US OIL Daily Chart:
Oil tests key resistance at the 64.50 level.
With trade tensions smoothening a bit, and economies potentially less likely to go into a recession, oil has rebounded sharply.
I'm bullish on this one, looking for a breakout above this level for possible break / retest entries.
- Nick
Oil tests key resistance at the 64.50 level.
With trade tensions smoothening a bit, and economies potentially less likely to go into a recession, oil has rebounded sharply.
I'm bullish on this one, looking for a breakout above this level for possible break / retest entries.
- Nick
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My friend (and the very popular!) Tori Trades is stopping by our office for an in person interview this evening.
I would love to ask you guys for your help in preparing some of your top questions for her.
I will pick a few for our conversation, and your question may be featured in the upcoming video!
If you'd like to submit a question for us to discuss in the podcast episode, please leave your question here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSca_pkK7UpYfpd37QjgixexVLgwF1fgR4iLyuQ-Q2JENBMDBQ/viewform?usp=header
- Nick
I would love to ask you guys for your help in preparing some of your top questions for her.
I will pick a few for our conversation, and your question may be featured in the upcoming video!
If you'd like to submit a question for us to discuss in the podcast episode, please leave your question here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSca_pkK7UpYfpd37QjgixexVLgwF1fgR4iLyuQ-Q2JENBMDBQ/viewform?usp=header
- Nick
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