To those who think they can easily predict the market direction ahead of the NFP report... There's something you should know.
At the world’s top financial institutions and hedge funds, teams of brilliant minds (quants, economists, and statisticians) work tirelessly, crunching vast datasets with cutting-edge models to forecast the numbers ahead of the release. Even with their talent, resources, and floors of brainpower, their predictions about jobs data are often off — sometimes wildly so.
The reason post news price spikes are so violent is because there is a degree of uncertainty! The market rapidly tries to price in the new information following the print.
A retail trader marking up technical charts is not going to be able to better predict jobs data than the smartest minds with access to powerful data sets and quantitative models.
The good news? You don't have to! I like to wait for the numbers to come out, take some time to understand what they mean for the economy / macro context, and find setups that have a decent risk/reward.
This often means trailing the big guys and their moves... rather than trying to call the markets direction before we get the data. That is pure gambling in my opinion.
Be safe. Today is account blowing day for many...
- Nick
At the world’s top financial institutions and hedge funds, teams of brilliant minds (quants, economists, and statisticians) work tirelessly, crunching vast datasets with cutting-edge models to forecast the numbers ahead of the release. Even with their talent, resources, and floors of brainpower, their predictions about jobs data are often off — sometimes wildly so.
The reason post news price spikes are so violent is because there is a degree of uncertainty! The market rapidly tries to price in the new information following the print.
A retail trader marking up technical charts is not going to be able to better predict jobs data than the smartest minds with access to powerful data sets and quantitative models.
The good news? You don't have to! I like to wait for the numbers to come out, take some time to understand what they mean for the economy / macro context, and find setups that have a decent risk/reward.
This often means trailing the big guys and their moves... rather than trying to call the markets direction before we get the data. That is pure gambling in my opinion.
Be safe. Today is account blowing day for many...
- Nick
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Specifically, for A1 Trading or TraderNick followers, it is important that you are aware of impersonators. Across all social media platforms, there are hundreds of fake accounts impersonating Nick ("Tradernick") or other members of our team. It's alarmingly easy for someone to create a profile using our images and names to deceive others. We highly encourage everyone to spend the time to thoroughly read through this page so that you can be well informed on the scams that are currently affecting member of our community.
HOW TO IDENTIFY SCAMS & FAKE ACCOUNTS: https://www.a1trading.com/scammers/
Hi Traders! Unfortunately, the trading industry is plagued with scams. From false promises of guaranteed profits to accounts impersonating well-known industry figures, it is crucial to remain vigilant and always be on high alert.
Specifically, for A1 Trading or TraderNick followers, it is important that you are aware of impersonators. Across all social media platforms, there are hundreds of fake accounts impersonating Nick ("Tradernick") or other members of our team. It's alarmingly easy for someone to create a profile using our images and names to deceive others. We highly encourage everyone to spend the time to thoroughly read through this page so that you can be well informed on the scams that are currently affecting member of our community.
HOW TO IDENTIFY SCAMS & FAKE ACCOUNTS: https://www.a1trading.com/scammers/
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How to Identify Scams: 5 Signs of A Scammer
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📉 NAS100's Make-or-Break Moment: A Buying Opportunity?
The NAS100 index is undergoing its third test of a crucial support zone established in 2023. With investor uncertainty and market anxiety running high, this could be a pivotal buying opportunity for indices. A potential turnaround may emerge within the $19,000-$20,000 range, contingent on two key factors:
Progress in tariff negotiations signaling relief and cooperation between the US and its trade partners.
CPI and Core inflation data meeting or coming in below expectations.
Failure to achieve these outcomes may result in a break below the trend line, potentially driving NAS100 closer to the $17,000 range.
👉 Today's market outlook also covers gold’s price action, smart money positioning, and retail trader sentiment. Are markets gearing up for a major shift? Read the full breakdown here
-Frank
The NAS100 index is undergoing its third test of a crucial support zone established in 2023. With investor uncertainty and market anxiety running high, this could be a pivotal buying opportunity for indices. A potential turnaround may emerge within the $19,000-$20,000 range, contingent on two key factors:
Progress in tariff negotiations signaling relief and cooperation between the US and its trade partners.
CPI and Core inflation data meeting or coming in below expectations.
Failure to achieve these outcomes may result in a break below the trend line, potentially driving NAS100 closer to the $17,000 range.
👉 Today's market outlook also covers gold’s price action, smart money positioning, and retail trader sentiment. Are markets gearing up for a major shift? Read the full breakdown here
-Frank
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✅ Trade Signals – Get notified when our analysts (Nick, Frank, or Eivind) enter trades with detailed entries, exits, stops, and analysis. Covers gold, forex, indices, stocks, & options (0-3 trades per day).
✅ Trading Chatrooms – Connect with like-minded traders from around the world!
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Gold's Quiet Strength: A Bullish Breakout Brewing?
Gold prices have stagnated over the past month, struggling to breach the $3,000 mark. While recent job data signals slowing growth, a higher-than-expected inflation result could renew stagflation concerns, which historically benefits gold. The current 1D timeframe shows signs of a potential bullish flag pattern. If volatility persists, price may test the lower boundary of this channel before determining its next move. Notably, gold continues to outperform US indices, reflecting sustained buyer interest.
Data from EdgeFinder
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Gold prices have stagnated over the past month, struggling to breach the $3,000 mark. While recent job data signals slowing growth, a higher-than-expected inflation result could renew stagflation concerns, which historically benefits gold. The current 1D timeframe shows signs of a potential bullish flag pattern. If volatility persists, price may test the lower boundary of this channel before determining its next move. Notably, gold continues to outperform US indices, reflecting sustained buyer interest.
Data from EdgeFinder
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When you thought the bottom was in on Friday:
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US Dollar Daily Chart:
We're currently threatening to break a very key level of support for USD, despite today's better than expected JOLTS Job Openings being better than expected.
This chart continues to look bearish, but a bit oversold in the short run. Will we see a bounce on CPI?
If so - I still favor bearish setups at resistance for the time being.
This also continues to give a nice boost to gold & silver.
- Nick
We're currently threatening to break a very key level of support for USD, despite today's better than expected JOLTS Job Openings being better than expected.
This chart continues to look bearish, but a bit oversold in the short run. Will we see a bounce on CPI?
If so - I still favor bearish setups at resistance for the time being.
This also continues to give a nice boost to gold & silver.
- Nick
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