As oil price rises, retail sentiment falls further to the bearish side of the trade. This is usually a bullish sign for assets as retail could be too early or completely wrong about a reversal in price.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Here is some positive shifts in net change % from the past four weeks on USOil. COT data was released as a delay due to the market closure last Thursday for a funeral for the late President Jimmy Carter. Tomorrow we will get another COT report pretty close to Tuesday's release.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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This is a snapshot of the US economy on the EdgeFinder. Here we can quickly glance at the jobs market, inflation data, and economic data to see where it's beating and missing expectations. The table is meant to assess risk appetite in the market. The more blue than red, the more optimistic investors are on indices, bitcoin, stocks, and oil (sometimes). The more red than blue, the more optimistic investors are on assets such as the dollar, gold, and sometimes oil
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Dow is the most bullish index in the market now. Price has moved all the way back up to the $44-45K zone. There is a previous top here which could become a head and shoulders if it retraces. But with recent market sentiment, indices are reaching towards all time highs again. Investors are getting too greedy according to the Put/Call ratio which could cause a melt up before another period of taking profits.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
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We are going to find out pretty quickly if oil is still bullish or not under Trump. Last time around, oil prices plunged even before the pandemic, so that is likely to happen again. There will probably be more domestic drilling, higher oil reserves, higher production. If price comes back down below $73, we could be looking at lower CPI numbers in the next few quarters. It looks like the oil trade may be on its last leg as price tests a previous support level.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Bought Bitcoin based off strong technicals on the 1D and 1W timeframes. Price hit a higher high near $110K and the retraced again. Now on its way up, the crypto could be attempting another higher high. There is a very strong level of resistance on Bitcoin's weekly chart, and these higher highs are looking like it's setting up for a breakout.
- Frank
- Frank
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We know from last term that Trump was hard on the tariff policy, so that could likely be expected again. The dollar is also very sensitive to these kinds of policy as heavy tariffs on imported goods could hurt the dollar's spending power. Right now, price is up against a resistance line on the 1D timeframe and seems to be retracing from these levels. If price closes as this inverted hammer or pin bar, we could see price come down to support around 107.111.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Gold staggers before today's speech at the WEF today. Scores on the EdgeFinder have not changed from the neutral category despite the most recent run higher towards the $2,750s. Trade policy will affect everything in the market, stocks and dollar are not the only concerns. Price is at a decision point today, so we either see a turn back towards the $2,720s or break back to the highs at $2,790.
-Frank
-Frank
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Smart money has been selling NAS for the past 5 weeks according to our COT data history. Just about every week, the change in long contracts is negative suggesting a lesser net position over time. Last week was the biggest positional shift of -3%. It seems that the trend for the index is a gradual increase in dumping contracts of this future's index.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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