Three straight days of modest gains from gold have investors gearing for a potentially disappointing NFP report. Expectations are lower this time and not just for NFP alone. Wages are expected to drop as well, but unemployment rates are looking to stay the same. I mention this a little too much, but the ideal scenario for gold would be a triple miss - not just because of worse labor data - but because of stagflation fears.
The metal is gearing for the top of that wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe. Once that level is hit, I'm not sure where price will turn to afterwards. It seems that this level will be tested before NFP tomorrow, setting up for either a breakout upwards or another retracement down to the $2,600s. It all depends on the revisions and unemployment rate, in my opinion.
-Frank
The metal is gearing for the top of that wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe. Once that level is hit, I'm not sure where price will turn to afterwards. It seems that this level will be tested before NFP tomorrow, setting up for either a breakout upwards or another retracement down to the $2,600s. It all depends on the revisions and unemployment rate, in my opinion.
-Frank
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📈 TRADE UPDATE: GOLD
I’m currently holding a long position on XAUUSD, up +40 pips so far!
Here’s why I entered the trade:
🔹 I anticipated a potential miss in labor market data, with lower NFP and wage growth expectations adding to stagflation fears.
🔹 Gold has been stuck in a wedge pattern, and I’m watching key events like labor data and CPI that could trigger a breakout.
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-Frank
I’m currently holding a long position on XAUUSD, up +40 pips so far!
Here’s why I entered the trade:
🔹 I anticipated a potential miss in labor market data, with lower NFP and wage growth expectations adding to stagflation fears.
🔹 Gold has been stuck in a wedge pattern, and I’m watching key events like labor data and CPI that could trigger a breakout.
💡 Want to see how I’m managing this trade and others in real time? Join the VIP Discord for 10% off with code TGVIP and get access to my strategies, updates, and more!
👉 Click here to join!
-Frank
❤16👍2
Adding to the confusion and uncertainty, the SPX500 is now a bullish score on the EdgeFinder along with the other US indices. The change happened solely based the put/call ratio shifting retail sentiment's score from greed to fear. This was a relatively sharp move from 0.78 to 0.95 indicating that the number of puts to every long has increased. The market was a little to greedy until yesterday as fears churned in anticipation of an NFP miss. This is a pivotal level here on the 1D timeframe. Price is stuck between $5,800 and $6,000. A beat could spark another attempt at the highs while a miss could could break the support level.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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❤13
Taking profits on this USD/CHF long signal in VIP 🚀
Signal was shared just a few days ago.
Total profit: +113 PIPS 🔥
Reasoning: Locking in another profitable trade on USDCHF ahead of tomorrow's NFP event. Going to look for pullbacks as an opportunity to get back in, but for now happy to close out a very nice winner here.
Congrats to those that caught the dollar move too 🙏
- Nick
Signal was shared just a few days ago.
Total profit: +113 PIPS 🔥
Reasoning: Locking in another profitable trade on USDCHF ahead of tomorrow's NFP event. Going to look for pullbacks as an opportunity to get back in, but for now happy to close out a very nice winner here.
Congrats to those that caught the dollar move too 🙏
- Nick
👍15🔥5❤4
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Retail sentiment in the tech market indicates fear in the overall market. If the market sells off, we could see the ratio get much higher which would mean the market is too fearful. Fears will likely escalate from now until Friday morning.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Over the past 6 weeks, gold has seen a net positive change in positions which could mean that investors are prepping for a miss in labor data this week. The change in long contracts is low, but the change in shorts is much lower.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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❤9
$EURUSD - Daily Downtrend Spiral...
As the dollar continues to strengthen, the EURO continues to struggle.
Increased tariffs, and widening interest rate differentials (fed holding rates, Europe cutting rates) could continue to weigh on this pair.
Technically, price is eyeing the previous low.
Will NFP be the catalyst to continue this downtrend?
- Nick
As the dollar continues to strengthen, the EURO continues to struggle.
Increased tariffs, and widening interest rate differentials (fed holding rates, Europe cutting rates) could continue to weigh on this pair.
Technically, price is eyeing the previous low.
Will NFP be the catalyst to continue this downtrend?
- Nick
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Unemployment rates are still elevated and are expected to stay this way for the next month or so. It seems that these rates are likely not going to go under 4% any time soon as the overall trend has taken us up by 0.50% from last January.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Had to close gold trades this morning after a strong jobs report. This seems like a good sign for the stock market now that NFP is higher and wages declined as expected. Although NFP had a substantial beat in expectations, levels are still relatively modest in comparison to the last 12 months. Revisions didn't move enough to cause any sort of stir in that regard, and I think the biggest impact in price direction today will be from unemployment rate dropping. This is exactly what investors want to see, so I look at this stock market sell off initial reaction as a potential long opportunity.
- Frank
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