Gold is up in premarket trading as we gear for the most important news of the day of ADP employment. This month, the private sector is expected to drop from December’s reading of 146K to 139K. The reason gold is up is due to the anticipation of weaker jobs numbers as the metal looks like it wants to test the top of that wedge pattern again. This week will likely be the deciding factor in gold’s break on the top or bottom of the wedge. But Friday provides the last piece to the labor puzzle.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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The SPX is making lower highs after each attempt at $6,000. Today’s ADP number came in lower than expected at 122K marking a relatively big miss in expectations. Stocks are relatively unchanged, however. Being close to the highs has stalled price action for the time being, and index scores remain neutral. The trend score is actually a -2 now suggesting the index has rounded off and may be gearing for a break under support. For now, the SPX is stuck between $5,880 and the all time highs.
- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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- Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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🚨 NEW TRADE FROM CHRIS
🔹 /SI | 3/26 Expiry
Buy 26.50 Put (1)
Sell 26.25 Put (1)
Sell 26.00 Put (1)
Buy 19.5 Put (2)
Credit: 0.060
93% Probability of Profit
💵 Outcomes:
$277.90 income if price > 26.00
$1,610 profit if price lands between 26.00-26.25
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🔹 /SI | 3/26 Expiry
Buy 26.50 Put (1)
Sell 26.25 Put (1)
Sell 26.00 Put (1)
Buy 19.5 Put (2)
Credit: 0.060
93% Probability of Profit
💵 Outcomes:
$277.90 income if price > 26.00
$1,610 profit if price lands between 26.00-26.25
📈 Want access to more trades like this? Get Pulver Alerts today for 10% off with code TGVIP!
📲 Sign up here!
Gold is still rising after private payrolls come in at a miss to start off the year. The downtrend in jobs data is diverging against the inflationary data. Although not a clear enough sign yet, the market's fear of stagflation will only build with every tick lower on NFP, ADP, wage growth - and every tick higher on unemployment rates.
On the other hand, I can see gold slowly build up demand only to dump off later on because I've seen that happen before. And this week's labor results are not complete without Friday's numbers. But what I see now is a bounce from the bottom of a wedge pattern and turn back higher. It seems that a test at the top of the wedge pattern could pan out before any major moves happen next. So I may be looking to go long XAUUSD to the $2,670-80s and managing the trade from there.
- Frank
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On the other hand, I can see gold slowly build up demand only to dump off later on because I've seen that happen before. And this week's labor results are not complete without Friday's numbers. But what I see now is a bounce from the bottom of a wedge pattern and turn back higher. It seems that a test at the top of the wedge pattern could pan out before any major moves happen next. So I may be looking to go long XAUUSD to the $2,670-80s and managing the trade from there.
- Frank
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10% Off Signals: Code TGVIP
👉 GET MY SIGNALS HERE
Chart of the Day: GOLD 📈
Despite an incredibly strong US dollar, and fleeting probabilities for rate cuts... gold is stubbornly staying strong.
This, from a technical basis, is very impressive from gold. Typically, a stronger dollar weighs heavy on gold...
While gold is definitely not breaking new highs, it is very clearly holding its ground at the 100 day moving average.
Could this be signaling a breakaway move to the upside for gold if we see weakness in the dollar?
Very curious!
- Nick
Despite an incredibly strong US dollar, and fleeting probabilities for rate cuts... gold is stubbornly staying strong.
This, from a technical basis, is very impressive from gold. Typically, a stronger dollar weighs heavy on gold...
While gold is definitely not breaking new highs, it is very clearly holding its ground at the 100 day moving average.
Could this be signaling a breakaway move to the upside for gold if we see weakness in the dollar?
Very curious!
- Nick
Three straight days of modest gains from gold have investors gearing for a potentially disappointing NFP report. Expectations are lower this time and not just for NFP alone. Wages are expected to drop as well, but unemployment rates are looking to stay the same. I mention this a little too much, but the ideal scenario for gold would be a triple miss - not just because of worse labor data - but because of stagflation fears.
The metal is gearing for the top of that wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe. Once that level is hit, I'm not sure where price will turn to afterwards. It seems that this level will be tested before NFP tomorrow, setting up for either a breakout upwards or another retracement down to the $2,600s. It all depends on the revisions and unemployment rate, in my opinion.
-Frank
The metal is gearing for the top of that wedge pattern on the 1D timeframe. Once that level is hit, I'm not sure where price will turn to afterwards. It seems that this level will be tested before NFP tomorrow, setting up for either a breakout upwards or another retracement down to the $2,600s. It all depends on the revisions and unemployment rate, in my opinion.
-Frank
📈 TRADE UPDATE: GOLD
I’m currently holding a long position on XAUUSD, up +40 pips so far!
Here’s why I entered the trade:
🔹 I anticipated a potential miss in labor market data, with lower NFP and wage growth expectations adding to stagflation fears.
🔹 Gold has been stuck in a wedge pattern, and I’m watching key events like labor data and CPI that could trigger a breakout.
💡 Want to see how I’m managing this trade and others in real time? Join the VIP Discord for 10% off with code TGVIP and get access to my strategies, updates, and more!
👉 Click here to join!
-Frank
I’m currently holding a long position on XAUUSD, up +40 pips so far!
Here’s why I entered the trade:
🔹 I anticipated a potential miss in labor market data, with lower NFP and wage growth expectations adding to stagflation fears.
🔹 Gold has been stuck in a wedge pattern, and I’m watching key events like labor data and CPI that could trigger a breakout.
💡 Want to see how I’m managing this trade and others in real time? Join the VIP Discord for 10% off with code TGVIP and get access to my strategies, updates, and more!
👉 Click here to join!
-Frank
Adding to the confusion and uncertainty, the SPX500 is now a bullish score on the EdgeFinder along with the other US indices. The change happened solely based the put/call ratio shifting retail sentiment's score from greed to fear. This was a relatively sharp move from 0.78 to 0.95 indicating that the number of puts to every long has increased. The market was a little to greedy until yesterday as fears churned in anticipation of an NFP miss. This is a pivotal level here on the 1D timeframe. Price is stuck between $5,800 and $6,000. A beat could spark another attempt at the highs while a miss could could break the support level.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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👉 GET THE EDGEFINDER (10% Off Code: TGVIP)
Taking profits on this USD/CHF long signal in VIP 🚀
Signal was shared just a few days ago.
Total profit: +113 PIPS 🔥
Reasoning: Locking in another profitable trade on USDCHF ahead of tomorrow's NFP event. Going to look for pullbacks as an opportunity to get back in, but for now happy to close out a very nice winner here.
Congrats to those that caught the dollar move too 🙏
- Nick
Signal was shared just a few days ago.
Total profit: +113 PIPS 🔥
Reasoning: Locking in another profitable trade on USDCHF ahead of tomorrow's NFP event. Going to look for pullbacks as an opportunity to get back in, but for now happy to close out a very nice winner here.
Congrats to those that caught the dollar move too 🙏
- Nick