This is the interest rate forecast going into Q3 of 2025 in the US. Rates are depicted to drop to 4.25% (which is only a 25 bps move from here) and remain there until perhaps Q4. Powell said only 2 more rate cuts are expected for now.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USDCAD is the top bullish score on the EdgeFinder now as the dollar gains more demand from investors who are expecting interest rates to be elevated for longer. This news caused risk sentiment to slow down and money to flow back into the dollar.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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NZDUSD is the top bearish pair on our list right now for the same reasons as USDCAD. Since the rest of the world is trying to ease as well, a Fed pause in 2025 would keep the value of the dollar higher than other countries' currencies. Just from looking at the EF score, we can tell that the economics in the US are healthier than in New Zealand. So less rate cuts to work on bringing inflation down will only help the USD.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Gold is still a neutral reading because of two contradicting signals. The bullish signal is that stagflation poses a severe threat in 2025, an indicator of extreme bullishness for the metal. However, the Fed has decided to keep from devaluing the dollar for the time being in order to battle inflation again. So gold is kind of stuck in this uncertain market where demand is hesitant.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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Retail sentiment is leaning back into metals, commodities, small caps and Dow. Meanwhile, other global indices are in the neutral camp and the only asset being sold by the crowd is USDCAD, which has been our top bullish pair on the EdgeFinder.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USD, CHF, NIKKEI, bond notes, and SPX were the top bought assets last week. Meanwhile, NASDAQ and RUSSELL were neutral. Smart money actually sold blue chips last week suggesting that demand is going into a broader market index such as SPX while leaving tech, small caps and blue chips out of the equation.
Data from the EdgeFinder
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The 10 year treasury yield rose this month due to the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and lesser concerns over the labor market. Rate cuts were meant to save jobs but at the cost of inflation rising. Now the Fed needs to rebalance and gauge when they think the next cut is necessary. Next year, forecasts only show one or two more by 2026. Treasuries are now losing demand as yields continue to climb and will likely keep rising in 2025.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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-Frank
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Rising yields is bringing rise to the dollar while hurting assets such as Bitcoin, gold, stocks. We could be looking at the peak price of Bitcoin for now after an incredible run to $108,000 followed by profit taking. My target was $110,000 and we fell just short of it this month. At this point, it seems to me that the rally is probably fizzling out, and $110K is no longer a target I'm looking for. What we're looking at could possibly be a head and shoulders pattern on the 1D timeframe with support at $90,000 and much lower to $73,000.
- Frank
- Frank
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