Blue chips take the reins again after the trade swings to dividend plays. The put/call ratio has been relatively flat over the past month or so with a slight lean towards bullishness. Seasonality is strong for the index this month while we wait for NFP tomorrow. This week has been softer than expected in terms of ADP coming in light and unemployment claims higher. What could cause a retracement in the market is if NFP comes in lighter, revisions are lighter, and/or unemployment rate ticks up.
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Despite a considerable move to all time highs, smart money is still split in sentiment. This could lead us to thinking that the recent rally to $100k could be retail-led which would indicate that price is unstable at these highs.
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Gold is Up Before CPI
With CPI tomorrow, gold opened up green and is heading higher towards resistance near $2,700. Investors could be anticipating a higher number tomorrow which would be a bad sign for two reasons. Other than the Fed losing the inflationary battle, a higher CPI would look more like stagflation with our current jobs numbers. The US now has 4.2% unemployment, 0.1% higher than last month (which is significant). We have seen 4% or higher since May of this year. And while CPI was on its way down, the trend was broken in November when we jumped from 2.4 to 2.6% inflation.
So now there's this question whether or not the Fed is still winning, whether inflation will return to 2%, whether jobs can maintain steady or continue to cool. If we get a higher CPI and/or Core, gold is likely to break over the falling trend line and back towards $2,720s.
- Frank
With CPI tomorrow, gold opened up green and is heading higher towards resistance near $2,700. Investors could be anticipating a higher number tomorrow which would be a bad sign for two reasons. Other than the Fed losing the inflationary battle, a higher CPI would look more like stagflation with our current jobs numbers. The US now has 4.2% unemployment, 0.1% higher than last month (which is significant). We have seen 4% or higher since May of this year. And while CPI was on its way down, the trend was broken in November when we jumped from 2.4 to 2.6% inflation.
So now there's this question whether or not the Fed is still winning, whether inflation will return to 2%, whether jobs can maintain steady or continue to cool. If we get a higher CPI and/or Core, gold is likely to break over the falling trend line and back towards $2,720s.
- Frank
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NASDAQ Strong at the Highs
The pro of being in a bull market is that the market goes up notching new highs every month, and the con is that we never know what could break the uptrend. I think the biggest fear is not a bear market, but the fear of how big a retracement will be before hitting new highs again. Higher CPI will probably take us lower towards $20,700, although a pull back will probably not get that steep and turn back to the upside around $21,000.
- Frank
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The pro of being in a bull market is that the market goes up notching new highs every month, and the con is that we never know what could break the uptrend. I think the biggest fear is not a bear market, but the fear of how big a retracement will be before hitting new highs again. Higher CPI will probably take us lower towards $20,700, although a pull back will probably not get that steep and turn back to the upside around $21,000.
- Frank
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SPX and NAS are getting closer to being sold by retail traders. DOW is also mixed while oil, gold and small caps are bought. The only asset clearly getting sold is USDCAD.
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Looks like smart money is still piling into the yen while adding the tech index and gold to the list. Meanwhile, NIKKEI is the top biggest seller, no surprise there with yen at the top. SPX, RUSSELL and DOW are following close behind the Japanese stock index.
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The core of our problem is here in jobs data. It's okay to see less jobs added when interest rates are higher. But now the Fed is loosening up its policy and cutting rates. Yet unemployment rates continue to rise. Investors are patiently anticipating the UE rate to drop back below 4%, but that is a big 'if'. CPI can't keep rising if unemployment is going to rise or else it means stagflation.
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Gold
Good news for the metal after CPI numbers came in as expected. Usually expected results are not a cause for volatility, but it brought inflation higher for the second month. With an uptick in unemployment and inflation, investors may start to get concerned over a stagflation environment. Gold broke out of a key resistance level and may test the $2,720s.
-Frank
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Good news for the metal after CPI numbers came in as expected. Usually expected results are not a cause for volatility, but it brought inflation higher for the second month. With an uptick in unemployment and inflation, investors may start to get concerned over a stagflation environment. Gold broke out of a key resistance level and may test the $2,720s.
-Frank
Data from the EdgeFinder
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USOil
Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. The EdgeFinder still gives this asset a neutral score which may suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.
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Oil prices rise from the lows of $66 and have been stuck within a range since September. The EdgeFinder still gives this asset a neutral score which may suggest that oil will continue to trade within this range. CPI m/m and y/y increased within expectations, but Core stayed the same. This means that food and energy prices could be impacting inflation now, but not enough to cause concern. Analysts still expect another cut this month.
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Gold fell over 1% after this PPI result. Consumer prices came in as expected yesterday which had gold do an opposite reaction from today. The Fed is still expected to cut rates, but the question is how aggressively. Seeing this mixed result may mean we won't be getting 50 bps cuts like investors in gold wanted.
Gold came down to test support on the 1D timeframe and will likely attempt a bounce. If the metal fails however, it could continue lower towards $2,660.
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Gold came down to test support on the 1D timeframe and will likely attempt a bounce. If the metal fails however, it could continue lower towards $2,660.
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GOOGL shot up this week after announcing a new product known as their quantum computer chip Willow. It was able to solve a "benchmark computation" in a few minutes and would've taken the fastest computers 10 septillion years to solve.
As a result, the stock flew 12% in only this week. Now the stock is at all time highs above $193 and is looking to push higher.
As a result, the stock flew 12% in only this week. Now the stock is at all time highs above $193 and is looking to push higher.
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