Looking at tech stocks as we approach NVDA earnings tomorrow. The index is now under the 50 DMA but has not necessarily confirmed a break below this strong level of support. The market hasn’t really moved for the past week as we bump around within this consolidation zone. Powell has pointed to a rate cut in September, but the market has not followed through with a bullish move to the highs yet. With a light news week, it seems like the indices are going to shift their focus towards earnings. -Frank
👍14❤6🫡1
Gold is down at the start of the New York session, but has shown a better resolve than the US indices. The dollar is likely going to be weaker now that investors expect a rate cut soon, so gold is probably getting more attention on the demand side than other assets. Whether it’s a stagflation issue or a deflationary issue, gold looks healthier and safer than buying stocks near the highs or hoping for a dollar reversal.
-Frank
-Frank
❤26👍14😁4
USDJPY turns lower on the day too, breaking under the long term support trend line. Overall, I think it’s important to monitor this pair as it depicts economic health in the US and the unwinding of the carry trade. It somewhat looks like today may be the deciding factor on index trend. We just need to watch UJ’s potential break lower.
-Frank
-Frank
👍17❤14
Tech stocks are rattled this morning in the wake of a heavy earnings report from NVDIA today after the bell. It’s hard to tell what we are going to get this quarter from AI earnings, but analysts predict it will bring lots of volatility to the markets. The chip maker will have to beat revenue, earnings, and have a strong guidance in order to justify these prices. If not, we could see a large move lower which may carry the NAS100 with it. Watch for a break under support around the 50 DMA at $19,400s.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
❤11👍3🤩1
I'm waiting on the sidelines for EU and GU, but would like to buy a pullback if we see some meaningful selling in the next few days/weeks.
-Nick
-Nick
👍37🔥7👀7
NASDAQ falls under the 50 DMA about 30 minutes before close. VIX spiked about 15% today, but it's not necessarily a warning for a sell off. Implied volatility is going up as a result of the upcoming NVDA earnings which is highly anticipated. We are pretty sensitive to news at these high prices, and investors need to see a justification to be at this level.
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank
👍17❤6
The $3 trillion tech giant beat all estimates except guidance on next earnings. Because it wasn't a perfect report, the stock is struggling to push any higher than where it is now. In order to see higher highs in the stock and the index it resides, earnings needs to be constantly blowing it out of the water.
This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
👏7👍3❤1
A key inflation report for the Fed is coming out tomorrow which is expected to come out unchanged. Core PCE will show us the price of goods and services purchased by consumers and tell whether or not prices are getting more or less expensive.
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank
👍21❤2
USDJPY rises on the day after the positive GDP numbers in the US this morning. But the score still remains very bearish on the EdgeFinder's outlook. Other factors like smart money pouring into the yen, weak seasonality, poor labor conditions, and expected lower yields next month are keeping the score negative.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
👍13❤1
Retail turned bearish on the S&P, but remain mixed on NASDAQ and long RUSSELL small caps. Gold is now one of the top buys from retail too, suggesting that the metal may have topped out.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
👍9😁4🆒3
Gold has mostly remained steady in COT positioning while retail went heavily long. This is usually not a great sign for continued bullishness on an asset that has already run up so far.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
👍15✍4❤3
UJ's positioning looks pretty clear on direction. COT has become dramatically less bullish on the pair while retail is becoming increasingly long the pair. This sort of behavior may foreshadow a longer term down trend.
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
🚨 30% OFF w/ Code TGVIP
🏆 Start Your EdgeFinder Trial
👍10❤5😨1
Gold 4H Chart:
Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.
It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.
With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.
I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.
- Nick
Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.
It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.
With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.
I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.
- Nick
👍23❤14🔥6
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
30% off sale ending for the EdgeFinder!
Get a copy with code TGVIP at checkout here: https://a1trading.com/edgefinder/
Have questions? Want to explore the tool before buying, or want to pay with crypto?
Chat our team here:
https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80
Get a copy with code TGVIP at checkout here: https://a1trading.com/edgefinder/
Have questions? Want to explore the tool before buying, or want to pay with crypto?
Chat our team here:
https://tawk.to/chat/62e5d26254f06e12d88c1ec2/1g98rrk80
❤7👍1