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GBP/USD
Will one cut even do anything for the US economy? No, probably not. I think what investors want to see is the start of the cutting trend so we can anticipate lower rates in the next few years. The BoE, on the other hand, is now at 2% inflation and still won’t cut. The pound looks stronger than the dollar right now. GU has closed above a strong, long-term wedge pattern.
Will one cut even do anything for the US economy? No, probably not. I think what investors want to see is the start of the cutting trend so we can anticipate lower rates in the next few years. The BoE, on the other hand, is now at 2% inflation and still won’t cut. The pound looks stronger than the dollar right now. GU has closed above a strong, long-term wedge pattern.
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GBP/USD
GU works its way back to a double top on the 4H timeframe on pound strength. Powell’s remarks yesterday were still dovish as he said holding rates too high for too long can be damaging to the economy. This further reinforced an interest rate cut this year which is expected to come as soon as September. Meanwhile, the BoE remains hawkish to monetary policy as they decided to keep rates the same even after reaching their inflation target. In the race to cut interest rates, US might do so before the UK.
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GU works its way back to a double top on the 4H timeframe on pound strength. Powell’s remarks yesterday were still dovish as he said holding rates too high for too long can be damaging to the economy. This further reinforced an interest rate cut this year which is expected to come as soon as September. Meanwhile, the BoE remains hawkish to monetary policy as they decided to keep rates the same even after reaching their inflation target. In the race to cut interest rates, US might do so before the UK.
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On a long term trend of the S&P, price is up against the top of a channel on the 1D timeframe. A break in this could lead to a completion of the move higher towards the $5,700-800s level where there is another long term trend line. We have to keep in mind that tomorrow's CPI is going to be another catalyst for the stock market.
If CPI comes in hotter, the markets may react negatively and respect the current trend line resistance. If CPI is sticky or edges lower, it may boost price above this line. If the melt up isn't over, we could still see another 3+% to the upside on the SPX500. The market needs a reason to turn lower, and if inflation can't give the bears a green light, it's going to be hard to think of this current price level as the top. -Frank
If CPI comes in hotter, the markets may react negatively and respect the current trend line resistance. If CPI is sticky or edges lower, it may boost price above this line. If the melt up isn't over, we could still see another 3+% to the upside on the SPX500. The market needs a reason to turn lower, and if inflation can't give the bears a green light, it's going to be hard to think of this current price level as the top. -Frank
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🚨This morning's CPI came in lighter than expected
Unemployment claims also came in lower than expected
Unemployment claims also came in lower than expected
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As market drop, small caps jump higher on cooler CPI data. The RUSSELL is very much interest rate sensitive and has been a sector lagger and is now leading gains over the other indices. One thing to note is that we could be seeing a rotation from mega caps and big names into the other indices that had fallen behind.
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The NASDAQ dropped as much as 2% at the time of writing this marking a long overdue pullback in the tech market. If the rotation out of big tech continues, we might see the NAS100 give back all of its July gains or more. Big names like NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG and META are all down between 2-3% after this CPI data.
-Frank
-Frank
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As yields take a tumble, bond prices jumped on cooler inflation data. The 10 year treasury note is now considered a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder due to the reinforced belief that a rate cut will happen this year, even as soon as September.
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Retail seems to be heavily long dollar and oil while shorting the US indices except for RUSSELL. Gold remains mixed with DOW and DAX.
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