Retail positioning tells us all what we need to know. The crowd is mostly anti-GBP while favoring JPY. Retail could be looking for a reversal play on any one of these yen pairs that are shooting higher and higher. If we were to take a look at the smart money chart, things will likely be different.

Frank is Floating +188.80 pips on GBPJPY! 🎉️️️

CAD/JPY Analysis
Despite recent inflation numbers in Japan, the market seems to be shrugging off the BOJ worries. Governor Ueda has been adamant on the health of the Japanese economy with little focus on inflation. Higher than expected CPI numbers rolled out, and the initial reaction was yen-favored. However, the demand for yen has significantly dissolved intraday as pairs against JPY have paired most of the losses.

Canada is expected to release CPI news next week lower than the previous month. If we see any signs of stubborn inflation prices (say core CPI remains unchanged), it may be the same scenario with the UK. We would like to look for a more hawkish BOC that will keep rates where they are or even hike further. CADJPY is in a strong uptrend and may look to complete its move to a double top around 110.2.

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EURGBP is sitting at a -3 sell rating despite seasonality pointing to higher moves from the euro. EUR also has a better score on the inflation side of analysis because of how it is able to get more of a handle on it. However, this may lead to more hawkish moves from the BoE.

The UK's stubborn inflation numbers hold at 8.7% from last month, and this prompted their central bank to act accordingly. By adjusting the new rate by 50 basis points instead of the expected 25, it set a precedent to investors watching bank activity and rate expectations going forward.

GBPNZD rests on a rising trend line on the 1D and 4H timeframes. The pair will need to hold this level of demand to hold its bullish bias, otherwise the market might bid more to the downside. If price can hold, we may see another move to the upside around a key triple top level of resistance.

After the UK's latest CPI and rate decision, we can determine that BoE will remain tight on policy over time. At the same time, the RBNZ does not look to be as aggressive as they once were. With the highest rate at 5.5%, New Zealand is likely looking to hit the brakes to protect the economy.

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On the historical backtest feature, GBPUSD looks much less bearish than what it once was. This is partly due to the fact that Federal Reserve sentiment peaked in terms of aggressiveness. Now, it's a different story. The roles have essentially flipped between the Fed and the BoE.

GU is at a neutral rating of -1 meaning that bullish sentiment is growing by the pound. Lots of factors are involved in the EdgeFinder's sentiment on any asset, so it will never give out an exact time to be buying or selling. But it will provide the data of change over time, and its favor is gradually flipping towards the pound.

The yen remains heavily favored on the retail side. GBPJPY and GBPAUD are extremely short biased at 83% and 85% short. Meanwhile, EURGBP is mostly favored to the long side. According to retail sentiment, traders are either mixed or short GBP.

🤩 EURCHF closed for 34 pips profits

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📈 Entry: 182.674

ANALYSIS
- High inflation & surprise rate hikes from the BoE have me bullish on GBP recently
- COT data shows rising institutional buys on GBP, while maintaining a heavy short on JPY
- Nice uptrend, stops below market structure (HH, HL, etc)

Watching for this move on S&P500 🧐

- Nick

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Something worth highlighting this week is the change in COT positions on GBPNZD. Not only did we see a large amount of long contracts rise from last week, but we also saw a dwindling sentiment around NZD. The bottom two charts show a better visual of what's going on week-to-week. As you can see, last week's bias shot much higher in the pound's favor.

Stops trailed! Here is a sample also of what our alerts look like. - Nick

GBP/CAD Analysis
GBPCAD jumps this morning off Canada’s cooler numbers on CPI. The BOC sighed in relief as their monetary policy is working on getting inflation down to their 2% target. Meanwhile, the UK’s stubborn inflation levels have prompted their central bank to stay aggressive on policy. The pair hit support on the 1D and is bouncing from that demand zone. Price may come up to test resistance around the falling trend line.