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On the EdgeFinder, this pair is neutral. Weighed down by the recent downtrend, the score remains just under a buy. However, the ECB just raised its rates from 3.75% to 4% as sentiment revolves around the fact rates may stay higher for longer. Despite the looming recession fears in the European economies, target inflation is still in the ECB's sights.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ has the highest rates on the EdgeFinder at 5.5%. Seems hawkish, but they are not projected to go any further according to the central bank officials who have hinted that they will focus on pausing or cutting from now on.
Meanwhile, the RBNZ has the highest rates on the EdgeFinder at 5.5%. Seems hawkish, but they are not projected to go any further according to the central bank officials who have hinted that they will focus on pausing or cutting from now on.
π₯3β€1
Gold makes a comeback on the 1D timeframe. After breaking under a long term trend line, the metal paired those losses today on strong sentiment against the recent rate news. Investors may be shrugging off the concerns that the Fed may want to hike somewhere down the line, if Core PPI and Core CPI don't come down more.
Price is retesting the rising trend line as resistance now, but today's strong momentum may be enough to break higher. If today's candle ends similar to the way it looks now, we'll be looking at a strong rejection from the lows on a bullish hammer candle.
Price is retesting the rising trend line as resistance now, but today's strong momentum may be enough to break higher. If today's candle ends similar to the way it looks now, we'll be looking at a strong rejection from the lows on a bullish hammer candle.
π13π₯4
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Same story as always: retail trades against the most bullish and bearish pairs on the market. Just from looking at this chart, we can probably assume that EURGBP is steeply down, while AUDJPY is moving higher on the long term timeframe. Sure enough, I just looked at those charts and yes, that's exactly what's happening.
π₯12β€3
CHFJPY bullishness is reinforced by this one chart on the Smart Money Tracker page. As you can see on the bottom chart, the bias towards the upside has been increasing for the past four weeks now. At the same time, so has price. On the top chart, there is a steeper decrease in the number of long contracts going into the yen (the red line) versus CHF (the blue line).
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The Central Bank Tracker shows one more hike before it sticks at this level indefinitely. As a result, inflation projections are pointing downward. So, over time prices should drop, but the ECB worries that it will also cause a recession. EUR is in a tough spot in term of monetary policy, but overall, it's a hawkish-leaning currency.
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Everyone who bought Forex Tester 5 on the Forex Tester website (https://forextester.com/) participates in the draw on June 26th!
π As the prize, you'll get a PayPal transfer to make a deposit on your trading account using any broker.
π To receive the prize, you must leave a review for Forex Tester 5 on ForexPeaceArmy and TrustPilot and consent to publishing your photo on their website/social media.
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β€5π3
SPX500 Analysis
Stocks rally on an anticipation of the end to rate hikes. The Fed has been very transparent about inflation and their 2% target. To keep investors from being overly optimistic or fearful, he wonβt hype the economy. Nor will he raise concern. The market interprets what he says, whether bad or good. Powell stated that rates could go to 5.6% by year end, while the current interest rate sits at 5.25% for now. The market reacted bullishly to the recent pause with hopefulness to approaching the last few hikes. SPX500 broke above a long term channel on the 1D timeframe suggesting more upside. The Smart Money Tracker also showed a stark increase in long positions on the S&P. Although the market remains net bearish, the drastic change in longs contracts provided us with some optimism. The next target could be around $4500 and $4638 if momentum continues.
Stocks rally on an anticipation of the end to rate hikes. The Fed has been very transparent about inflation and their 2% target. To keep investors from being overly optimistic or fearful, he wonβt hype the economy. Nor will he raise concern. The market interprets what he says, whether bad or good. Powell stated that rates could go to 5.6% by year end, while the current interest rate sits at 5.25% for now. The market reacted bullishly to the recent pause with hopefulness to approaching the last few hikes. SPX500 broke above a long term channel on the 1D timeframe suggesting more upside. The Smart Money Tracker also showed a stark increase in long positions on the S&P. Although the market remains net bearish, the drastic change in longs contracts provided us with some optimism. The next target could be around $4500 and $4638 if momentum continues.
β€7π1
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π₯8β€3π2
EURGBP now sits at a -3 sell going into this week's news. Most analysts are in congruence that BoE will remain hawkish with another 25 bp hike in the midst. Due to a high level of inflation at 8.7%, the pound struggles against the yen, however, sentiment around a continuation of hikes with no clear end in sight is very high.
This is one of the few times where retail and smart money are thinking the same. The pound remains mixed on the COT side, but EUR is still majority long. When we take a look at the smart money tracker later on, we'll notice something interesting for both currency pairs. Retail is now 91% long, a telling sign that price action remains bearish.
This is one of the few times where retail and smart money are thinking the same. The pound remains mixed on the COT side, but EUR is still majority long. When we take a look at the smart money tracker later on, we'll notice something interesting for both currency pairs. Retail is now 91% long, a telling sign that price action remains bearish.
π₯°8π4
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On the same side of the world, SNB gears for another rate hike as well. This could be optimistic for the CHF as we go into this news. Expectations are set to 25 basis points, but this is not promised. Warnings of a more aggressive hike are now in the picture of 50 basis points. A surprise will undoubtedly be strong for the currency and will likely lead to a hawkish SNB meeting.
On the 1D timeframe, price actually looks slightly bullish. The pair broke above a falling channel and is sitting on a previous level of support. On the other hand, price is in the middle of a long term downtrend which seems likely to continue. NZD is also not showing any hawkish sentiment coming from their end at this point.
On the 1D timeframe, price actually looks slightly bullish. The pair broke above a falling channel and is sitting on a previous level of support. On the other hand, price is in the middle of a long term downtrend which seems likely to continue. NZD is also not showing any hawkish sentiment coming from their end at this point.
π6β€1
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π2
If we stack the two currencies against each other, we can clearly see the fog (as counterintuitive as that sounds). Overall a mixed sentiment overall when it comes to two aggressive central banks tightening their grip around inflation. What we can do as a result is compare the two banks to gather who might be more hawkish in the long term.
First, we can check inflation levels, that of which the UK struggles more. They is also more interest in the pound from the smart money side while retail is majority short. In terms of who may be more aggressive overall might go to the BoE who will probably be battling inflation for longer. Thus, tighter policy.
First, we can check inflation levels, that of which the UK struggles more. They is also more interest in the pound from the smart money side while retail is majority short. In terms of who may be more aggressive overall might go to the BoE who will probably be battling inflation for longer. Thus, tighter policy.
β€2
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π2