A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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With a full market view of major and minor pairs, some factors can be obviously pointed out. Investors are harshly short NZD as we go into another pivotal rate decision. The crowd also seems to be majority bullish yen regardless of COT and the BOJ's incredible dovishness.
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COT uncovers a different story regarding sentiment. JPY is still the most shorted asset on this list, followed by SPX and CAD. The charts below represent AUDUSD which is maintaining a heavily bearish bias week-to-week.
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GBPAUD Analysis
GBPAUD bounced from support on a rising trend line on the 1D timeframe. GBP is seeing some bullishness as we approach CPI news tomorrow. Expectations of a lower CPI y/y is a good sign for the pound bulls. A meet in expectations will take inflation back below 10%. The pair is getting increasingly bullish from COT data as well, as institutions pick up more longs for the pound.
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Gold Analysis
Gold looks to be rejecting the lows on the 1D timeframe after the US reported some mixed PMI data. Institutions are also looking less bullish on the metal as longs decreased while shorts increased. Price could still have some more room to the downside as it has not tested the long term trend line for support.
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🚨 NEW TRADE SIGNAL! NAS100.

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GBP/JPY Analysis
CPI did not come quite as far down as investors expected, but rates were close to the forecasted 8.2%. Core CPI on the other hand, came in hotter than expected indicating sticky prices in sectors other than food and energy. GJ is currently at a +3 on the EdgeFinder. It is not a strong buy rating as it seems likely that the UK will not surpass Japan in economic growth. With that said, the pair will likely rely on strong trend readings and how investors interpret this recent UK inflation data. COT is growing interest in GBP and slowly skewing toward a long bias. We’ll have to keep an eye on yen pairs as BOJ remains dovish.
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πŸ”₯Nick caught HUGE movement on his NASDAQ & EURJPY trades!

Patience pays off! Nick shared 2 trades yesterday morning with VIP members. He had been watching these pairs closely over the past week to wait for a clear setup before getting in. It seems the patience pays off! Here are his most recent updates on the trades.

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GBPNZD is a pair that should be on your radar now. The EdgeFinder still scores at a neutral rating of +2, but sentiment could continue to lean more towards a buy (+3 or higher). The kiwi carries one of the highest rates in the market right now, but that could be subject to change.

Governor Orr spoke on monetary policy going forward and mentioned that he sees no need for another rate hike after this 25 bp move. The rate sits at 5.5% and will likely stay there until the RBNZ decides to cut. Meanwhile, countries like UK which suffers from high levels of inflation has a different plan: continue the hikes as needed to reach their target of 2%.
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After Jerome Powell spoke yesterday, the dollar saw a spike in bullishness although the statement was very much a mixed one. Although he considered inflation to be "unacceptably high", the need for more hikes has become very muddy.

It appears that Fed officials are split between a continuation or a pause for next month, but the overall sentiment reads lesser confidence in a need for one. The DXY is up with bond yields today, however price is testing a key resistance level on a long term trend line. Today's price action could determine whether or not the pair has completed its move or not.
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After taking a look at retail, it's evident that the reversal traders are heavily against the strong moves from kiwi. Although there might be some temporary profitability, it could be limited as smart money will likely be dumping what they have in NZD.
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🚨 NEW TRADE SIGNAL! USDJPY

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When stacked among the rest, USD and NZD are the strongest in terms of funds rates. however, we still need to consider what is to come for the two hawkish currencies. After interpreting the two statement from this week, we can conclude that both the US and New Zealand are near or at the end of their rate hike journey. Investors are now expecting a pause or a cut, but hardly anyone thinks there will be another rise from the Fed or RBNZ.
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USDCAD is one of the EdgeFinder's strongest buys at +6. With retail majority short and opposite COT, this pair looks to be gearing for another higher high. The USD is stronger in every category but seasonality and inflation. However, as we near the end of the month of May, the pair is expected to make some gains which could int turn take UC to a higher buy score.

The Smart Money Tracker also shows us some intuitive insight on both currencies. We saw an increase in long positions and decrease in shorts for the dollar. And on the flip side, CAD is now the most shorted pair on the SMT, replacing the yen.
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