Profit Idea : Knowledge is Profit
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Why is Jio financial services, JIOFIN at lower circuit every day? It's one of the pitfalls of having so much money in index funds - forced selling.
The largest Indian mutual fund scheme is the SBI Nifty 50 ETF. It has 160,000 cr. in assets. It tracks the NIFTY 50 Index. Also, if you just add the list of funds that track the Nifty 50, you will see over 270,000 crore in Indian mutual funds that track the Nifty.
In the Nifty is Reliance Industries at a weightage of about 10%. It used to be 11%, but then JIOFIN was demerged out of it, and effectively, 1% of the NIFTY is in JIOFIN.
Because Reliance was in the index, JIOFIN, as a demerger result, is also kept in the index. In a set of rules in March 2023, the NSE said this:
* when an index stock demerges, the demerged stock will be part of the index till it lists
* after it lists, it will still be there for three days after which it will be removed from the index
* if it hits circuits for the first two days, it remains in the index for another two days.
JIOFIN listed on Monday. It hit the lower circuit on Monday and Tuesday, so it will stay in the index till Friday. If it keeps hitting the lower circuit, it will remain in the index until a day when it doesn't hit the circuits and boom, the next day it's out.
Complex? That's because of the index funds. JIOFIN doesn't qualify to be in the index (not enough listed history etc) So it should be removed. But because Index Funds own all the stocks in the Nifty, they will also have JIOFIN through the demerger. Remember all shareholders of Reliance got an equal number of shares of JIOFIN.
You can't remove JIOFIN from the index. Because the funds can't sell JIOFIN. If you removed JIOFIN from the index, the weights of all stocks would change but because Index funds can't sell it, they would have the wrong weights and not be able to track the index properly.
So the rule explains things: when JIOFIN lists and there's some time to sell it (assuming no circuits) then JIOFIN is removed.
Why is JIOFIN falling? Because these index funds want to sell it - the minute it is out of the lower circuit, it's out of the index so they need to be out of it by then.
Basically, they don't care if JIOFIN is a good co. It's like hello, it's not in the index, so I sell boss, don't care about anything else. This is "forced selling".
Now how much is there? Consider that 270,000 cr. is in Indian index funds (apart from active mutual funds that hold Reliance - those funds don't have to sell and can hold it for longer)
1% of that is 2,700 crores. That's the quantity that will be forced to sell, roughly. At Rs. 224 per share, that is roughly 12 crore shares that index funds must sell.
The current sell quantities on the exchange (NSE) are around 14 crore shares. Only 42 lakh shares have actually traded. Until this selling is absorbed, we'll see these lower circuits. It doesn't matter how good or bad the company is.
The largest Indian mutual fund scheme is the SBI Nifty 50 ETF. It has 160,000 cr. in assets. It tracks the NIFTY 50 Index. Also, if you just add the list of funds that track the Nifty 50, you will see over 270,000 crore in Indian mutual funds that track the Nifty.
In the Nifty is Reliance Industries at a weightage of about 10%. It used to be 11%, but then JIOFIN was demerged out of it, and effectively, 1% of the NIFTY is in JIOFIN.
Because Reliance was in the index, JIOFIN, as a demerger result, is also kept in the index. In a set of rules in March 2023, the NSE said this:
* when an index stock demerges, the demerged stock will be part of the index till it lists
* after it lists, it will still be there for three days after which it will be removed from the index
* if it hits circuits for the first two days, it remains in the index for another two days.
JIOFIN listed on Monday. It hit the lower circuit on Monday and Tuesday, so it will stay in the index till Friday. If it keeps hitting the lower circuit, it will remain in the index until a day when it doesn't hit the circuits and boom, the next day it's out.
Complex? That's because of the index funds. JIOFIN doesn't qualify to be in the index (not enough listed history etc) So it should be removed. But because Index Funds own all the stocks in the Nifty, they will also have JIOFIN through the demerger. Remember all shareholders of Reliance got an equal number of shares of JIOFIN.
You can't remove JIOFIN from the index. Because the funds can't sell JIOFIN. If you removed JIOFIN from the index, the weights of all stocks would change but because Index funds can't sell it, they would have the wrong weights and not be able to track the index properly.
So the rule explains things: when JIOFIN lists and there's some time to sell it (assuming no circuits) then JIOFIN is removed.
Why is JIOFIN falling? Because these index funds want to sell it - the minute it is out of the lower circuit, it's out of the index so they need to be out of it by then.
Basically, they don't care if JIOFIN is a good co. It's like hello, it's not in the index, so I sell boss, don't care about anything else. This is "forced selling".
Now how much is there? Consider that 270,000 cr. is in Indian index funds (apart from active mutual funds that hold Reliance - those funds don't have to sell and can hold it for longer)
1% of that is 2,700 crores. That's the quantity that will be forced to sell, roughly. At Rs. 224 per share, that is roughly 12 crore shares that index funds must sell.
The current sell quantities on the exchange (NSE) are around 14 crore shares. Only 42 lakh shares have actually traded. Until this selling is absorbed, we'll see these lower circuits. It doesn't matter how good or bad the company is.
Profit Idea : Knowledge is Profit
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