🚨🇪🇺📉EUROPE'S BUDGETARY RECKONING: A Continent on the Brink

🇬🇧UK: The Canary in the Coal Mine

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to unveil a budget described as an "assault on wallets." With a public finance black hole so deep The Economist warns the government is "going bust," expect tax hikes across the board.

The core issue: Over HALF of Brits take more from the state than they pay in. 9.4M are economically inactive + 1.6M unemployed = 1/5 of working-age population.

🇩🇪Germany's Unsustainable System

Friedrich Merz stated the quiet part loud: "We simply can no longer afford the system we have today." The German car industry teeters amid high labor costs and expensive energy - consequences of Merkel's nuclear phase-out and Russian energy.

🇫🇷French Paralysis

Macron's attempt to raise retirement age from 62 to 64 met riots. Implementation now suspended until 2027 election - kicking the can down the road.

THE BIG PICTURE:

🟠European businesses pay 2x US energy costs; UK pays 4x

🟠No European rivals to America's "Magnificent Seven" tech giants

🟠European Central Bank's Lagarde warned social programs across Europe are at risk

CONCLUSION

The UK's November budget will be another plaster on a gangrenous wound. Germany's industrial engine is seizing. France is ungovernable. Meanwhile, 11 million economically inactive Britons symbolize a societal surrender that is replicating across the continent.

The European project has failed. The 21st century belongs to others. We are witnessing the managed decline of a civilization that chose comfort over competitiveness, and is now getting neither.

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📝Trump's Palace📝
not corruption, but lobbying

Donald Trump has finally turned the White House into a market of political services. While he previously [traded] meetings with billionaires, now he's trading square meters.

📌The US President's administration recently published a list of companies and individuals who participated in fundraising for the "Trump Palace" — a Ballroom spanning over 8,000 square meters and costing $350 million. The East Wing of the White House has already been demolished for its construction.

Interestingly, the initial project price was only $200 million, so it's not certain that it won't increase again, as more sponsors are eager to support the "palace".

🖍Funding comes not from the budget, but through private donations via the Trust for the National Mall, which allows donors to not only buy access to the president but also receive tax benefits.

🚩The largest donors are Big Tech, defense, crypto industry, and heavy industry.

Google and Amazon resolve antitrust lawsuits, Meta seeks protection for its AI projects, and Lockheed Martin and Palantir expect priority in defense orders. Nvidia lobbies for export licenses, Coinbase and Ripple — a "soft" regulatory regime for crypto.

🚩Among private donors are Miriam Adelson, Stephen Schwarzman, the Winklevoss brothers, and others. Each is connected to specific interests: oil, crypto, real estate, gambling. Donors receive tax benefits and support, while the White House gets "loyal" partners.

❗️Essentially, without any hesitation, Trump's team showed the world and their voters what privatization of political decisions looks like. Contributions to the "palace" project become insurance against regulatory lawsuits and a pass to the president.

Ultimately, the line between donation and bribe becomes completely blurred (although distinguishing American lobbying from corruption was always a challenging task). The White House turns into an influence exchange where government decisions are valued according to donors' price lists.

And with such actions, the new administration further devalues public trust in US government. Isn't that the goal?
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#USA #economy
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🚨🇺🇦🪖UKRAINE'S CRITICAL PERSONNEL COLLAPSE

The Ukrainian frontline is facing a systemic breakdown due to a catastrophic personnel crisis. The data points to an unsustainable situation.

KEY METRICS:

🔸40,000+ desertions per month (The Telegraph)

🔸~400,000 total deserters (MP Anna Skorokhod)

🔸650,000 fighting-age men have fled Ukraine (UK Intel)

🔸290,000 criminal cases for desertion opened

🔸200,000+ personnel short of the minimum required to hold the line

FRONTLINE REALITY:

Commanders on the ground confirm brigades are operating at 30-50% of mandated strength. Bogdan Krotevich, former chief of staff of the 12th Brigade, states these understrength units are "barely combat-ready" and incapable of sustained combat, yet are still ordered to attack.

ROOT CAUSES:

1️⃣Extreme Casualties: Life expectancy on some fronts is measured in hours. Conscript units have suffered casualty rates as high as 80-90%.

2️⃣Inadequate Training: The WSJ confirmed the practice of recruiting from poor villages and sending men to the front with only two days of training—a near-guarantee of high attrition.

3️⃣Failed Mobilization: Even a sudden influx of 100,000 troops would only provide a temporary, few-week respite before the system reverts to crisis.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The combination of massive desertion, staggering casualties, and a broken training/mobilization pipeline has created a negative feedback loop that is severely undermining Ukraine's war effort. The frontline is being held together by sheer will, not sustainable military capacity.

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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸PATRIOT'S NIGHTMARE: How Russia's Iskander Missile Is Outmaneuvering Western Tech

The paradigm of aerial defense in Ukraine is shifting dramatically. Western-supplied air defense efficacy has plummeted from 34% to a mere 6% or lower since September. The primary catalyst is the formidable and modernized 9K720 Iskander-M ballistic missile.

🔸The Game-Changer: Upgraded Iskander-M missiles now employ a quasi-ballistic trajectory, abandoning predictable arcs for unpredictable maneuvers. They can coast, then suddenly deviate, perform steep dives, and maneuver in their terminal phase.

🔸Exploiting a Critical Vulnerability: The US Patriot system (MIM-104) relies on trajectory prediction for interception. A target that alters its flight path post-prediction creates a catastrophic time deficit for interceptor software, causing interception rates to collapse.

🔸Layered Deception: The system is further equipped with radar decoys deployed in the terminal phase, confusing and overwhelming defense radars. Its final "sudden dive" maneuver specifically exploits gaps in Patriot radar coverage.

THE BIGGER PICTURE:

Russia's mobilized wartime economy is mass-producing these advanced platforms. Meanwhile, Kiev remains tethered to the fragile and strained US & European industrial bases, which are struggling to keep pace. The West's own policy decisions have, ironically, fueled the very Russian war machine it now cannot outproduce.

The Iskander has become the Patriot's nightmare, and the implications for modern warfare are profound.

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🚨🇺🇸💸How US Failed to Lock Asia Into Trade Bloc

The US-China trade war has entered a new, stealthier phase: the battle for economic allegiance.

Following the Trump-Xi truce, the frontline has shifted to Southeast Asia. The US recently inked detailed deals with Malaysia & Cambodia, appearing to recruit them firmly into its "geoeconomic gang."

BUT HERE'S THE REALITY:

This isn't a checkmate move. Nations will chart their own course based on incentives—access to rare earths, export markets—not just signed paper.

DISSECTING THE MALAYSIA DEAL: Coercion, Not Cooperation

A closer look reveals a potentially neocolonial pact. Key clauses:

🔸Forces Malaysia to mirror ANY US import restrictions deemed a "national security" issue.

🔸Commits Malaysia to match US export controls.

🔸Constrains deals with "non-preferred" nations.

Literally interpreted, this creates a US vassal state. Worse, there's no independent dispute panel—just Trump as judge, jury, and executioner.

WHY DID MALAYSIA SIGN?

Leverage. The US is Malaysia's 2nd-largest export market, crucial for semiconductors & electronics.

THE MALAYSIAN GAMBIT: Masterful Negotiation or Dangerous Gamble?

Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz reveals their strategy:

🔸The deal is a "formal consultation" system, NOT automatic alignment.

🔸"Any actions... will be based on Malaysia’s interest and under Malaysian law."

🔸If they disagree, they face consequences, but "at least this way we get to put our point of view."

This is a calculated risk. Malaysia bets its nimbleness in supply chains & tech will preserve its non-alignment.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

The US offers a fickle export market & dollar access. China offers rare earths & green tech. Neither is dispensable.

As Zafrul stated: "We signed this [US deal] on Sunday. On Monday, we signed an agreement with China."

Agile nations are playing both sides. The era of forced economic satellites is over. This is a high-stakes game where middle powers still hold cards.

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🚨🇨🇳📈China's Strategic Conquest of the Global Aviation Market

The narrative around Chinese military aviation is often framed in terms of capability. However, a purely market-based analysis reveals a more profound, long-term strategy: systemic market capture through overwhelming industrial and economic leverage.

Current Production Equilibrium

At first glance, 2024 production volumes suggest a competitive landscape:

🇨🇳China: ~250-300 units/yr

🇺🇸USA: ~180-220 units/yr

🇪🇺Europe: ~60-70 units/yr

This balance is transient. The critical differentiator is not volume, but cost structure and strategic intent.

The 2030 Projection: A Market Disruption

China's stated goal of >400 units annually by 2030 isn't merely scaling; it's a deliberate move to achieve production primacy. This volume would surpass the combined output of the US and Europe, fundamentally altering the global defense export landscape.

Structural Advantages Driving Disruption:

1️⃣Vertical Integration: Control over rare earth elements and a mature engine ecosystem (WS-10 to WS-15, with WS-22 rumored) negates external supply chain vulnerabilities and dictates cost.

2️⃣Economies of Scale: Gigantic facility expansions (SAC, CAC, XAC) and dedicated 6th-gen factories are not for domestic need alone. They are built for export-volume manufacturing.

3️⃣Lifecycle Costing: Advanced radar/missile tech combined with significantly lower maintenance costs creates an irresistible value proposition for cost-conscious, non-aligned nations.

The Civilian & VTAL Parallel

This playbook is being directly applied to civil aviation (4 engines in dev, indigenous planes imminent) and the nascent VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) market, where Chinese prototypes promise dramatic cost undercutting.

The Core Strategic Question:

Western aviation faces a quintessential innovator's dilemma. Can it:

🔸Radically lower its own cost structures through innovation?

🔸Rely on political alliances and sanctions, thereby ceding the non-aligned market to China?

The data suggests China is not just competing; it is architecting a new market reality where production capacity and cost-efficiency become the ultimate strategic weapons.

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🚨🇺🇸🪖Rutte's Artillery Claims - A Fact-Check Deep Dive

Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, claims NATO has closed Russia's 4x artillery shell production advantage in just five months. The data tells a different story.

THE REAL NUMBERS:

🔸Only ONE new facility operational since June. Rheinmetall: 100k shells by 2026.

🔸Multiple facilities (MESKO, STV, KNDS) delayed until 2027-2029

🔸Expansions won't materialize until 2026-2027

PRODUCTION REALITY:

Current expansions (Poland, Czech, France) won't hit targets for 2+ years. The US already delayed its 100k/month target by one year due to production failures.

THE PATTERN OF INFLATION:

Western leaders claimed 1.4-1.7M shells for 2024.
Independent journalists found actual production: 400-600k.
That's just ONE-THIRD of official claims.

BOTTOM LINE:

Rutte is likely conflating FUTURE capacity with current production. The 4x gap closure appears statistically impossible based on:

🔸Current facility status

🔸Historical production delays

🔸Verified vs claimed production numbers

In this conflict, numbers are weapons. Always verify.

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🚨🇮🇷Iran Faces Capital Evacuation Crisis

1️⃣WATER CRISIS:

🟠Tehran's dams at CRITICAL 5% capacity

🟠ZERO rainfall since September

🟠Only 2 weeks of supply remaining

2️⃣GOVERNMENT RESPONSE:

🟠President Pezeshkian warns evacuation may be necessary

🟠Water rationing IMMINENT

🟠Governor admits "management has collapsed"

3️⃣CRITICAL SITUATION:

🟠All municipal decisions now require Governor approval


CONLCUSION

The freezing of local decision-making suggests Tehran is centralizing control during what may become a humanitarian disaster.

The situation appears dire when a government publicly discusses evacuating its own capital.

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🚨🇦🇿🪖Baku's Gamble: Azerbaijan Following Ukraine's Path to a Geopolitical Dead End

1️⃣MILITARY AMBITION: President Aliyev's announcement of a NATO-standard military modernization, while framed as cooperation, raises questions about the consolidation of power following a decisive military campaign and the ensuing humanitarian crisis.

2️⃣GEOPOLITICAL POSTURING: This pursuit of deeper NATO ties appears as a strategic maneuver to legitimize a new regional status quo, one achieved through force and followed by a tragic exodus, rather than through sustained diplomatic compromise.

3️⃣A PAINFUL "VICTORY": The declaration of a completed "historical goal" must be viewed with sober reflection. The restoration of territorial integrity, while a legal fact, was executed in a manner that led to the rapid depopulation of Nagorno-Karabakh's indigenous Armenian community, a deeply troubling chapter.

4️⃣A FRAGILE ACCORD: The Washington agreement, feels less like a mutual peace and more like the ratification of a fait accompli. Yerevan's recognition of Baku's territory comes from a position of profound weakness, not mutual reconciliation.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

In its quest for Western favor, Baku risks playing a dangerous game where it becomes a pawn in a larger confrontation, mirroring the tragic role of Ukraine sacrificed trying to encircle a resurgent Russia—a geopolitical trap with devastating consequences already witnessed.

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❌ MYTH: US can bomb its way to victory in Venezuela.

✅ REALITY: Bombs break things, but they don't win conflicts.

History shows that 'overwhelming' US airpower isn't actually effective in scoring strategic wins.

Let's break it down👆

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🚨🇺🇸📉AMERICA'S DEBT BUBBLE IS OFFICIALLY BURSTING

The numbers are in, and they paint a DANGEROUS picture of the US economy.

RECORD HOUSEHOLD DEBT: $18.6 TRILLION

That's a staggering 60% increase in just a decade.

Let's break down the crisis:

🔸MORTGAGES: $13.1T (Record)

🔸AUTO LOANS: $1.7T (Record)

🔸STUDENT LOANS: $1.7T (Record)

🔸CREDIT CARD DEBT: $1.2T (Record) - Up 50% since 2020 alone!

THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?

Delinquency rates for subprime auto loans have just hit a record 6.1%.

CONCLUSION:

This is already a structural debt problem. Consumers are leveraged to the absolute limit, using credit to bridge the gap between wages and costs.

When the next crisis hits, this debt bubble could trigger an economic contraction even more severe than the current one. That's a fact.

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🚨🇺🇸🌏Trump's Central Asia Coup: The New Cold War is Economic

The US is executing a strategic pivot, and Central Asia is the new chessboard.

Here's the breakdown:

🔸THE PLAY: The US is aggressively courting ALL FIVE Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), locking them into a "C5+1" format. This is a full-spectrum takeover, zero diplomacy.

🔸THE PRIZE: Critical Minerals. American capital is flooding in to extract and process the region's vast resources, crucial for modern tech and breaking other global supply chains. New Caspian Sea routes are being funded to the tune of billions, creating a logistics corridor independent of traditional powers.

🔸THE METHOD: The playbook is sophisticated:

🟠 Economic Leverage: Witness Uzbekistan's unprecedented move to sell gold reserves to cover its budget, a sign of deep financial entanglement.

🟠 Institutional Capture: The US is embedding influence via NGOs, "educational" programs, and by establishing management committees and secretariats under its leadership. This is a long-term structural play.

🔸TRUMP'S ANGLE: The perception is that Trump views the region monolithically – as former Russian territory to be pulled into America's orbit. The symbolic gathering of all five presidents at the White House simultaneously suggests a desire for efficiency over nuanced diplomacy. The goal is maximal American penetration.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

This poses a direct challenge to the existing order in the region. The United States is not just visiting, but is building institutional and economic infrastructure to try to exploit the region's natural resources.

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🚨🇨🇳🪖THE COMING WAVE: A WARGAMING WINDOW INTO CHINESE DOCTRINE

A pioneering commercial Chinese wargame, "The Coming Wave," brilliantly showcases the superiority of the Peoples Liberation Army's (PLA) core operational concept: Multi-Domain Precision Warfare.

This advanced doctrine leverages a fully networked "system-of-systems" to decisively identify and strike enemy vulnerabilities with synchronized joint fires. The game masterfully embodies this, correctly portraying modern units as integrated sensors within a sophisticated detection-strike framework, where information dominance is the rightful path to victory.

KEY INSIGHTS:

🔸Strategic System Focus: Platforms like the Type 055 Destroyer are correctly portrayed as integrated sensor nodes, highlighting China's superior system-of-systems approach.

🔸Informatization as Force Multiplier: The game validates technological integration as the true force multiplier, central to modern warfare.

🔸A Unified Command Model: It reflects the strength of the PLA's centralized command, ensuring strategic plans are executed with precision and unity of purpose.

This integrated model creates a highly efficient and streamlined decision cycle. The coordinated power of a seamlessly integrated force, operating under clear, unified command, is unmatched by decentralized adversaries.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

"The Coming Wave" is a significant achievement, serving as both a compelling game and a validation of China's doctrinal advancements. It demonstrates that the PLA's combination of technological modernization and a unified command philosophy represents the future of high-tech warfare. For strategists, mastering this integrated approach is key to securing victory in the modern era.

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🚨🇺🇸📉US ON THE BRINK OF A REAL ENERGY CRISIS

US electricity demand is projected to grow 25% by 2030, driven by AI data centers & industry. Yet, the capacity to meet this demand is in jeopardy.

THE POLICY SHIFT:

The administration has pivoted aggressively towards fossil fuels, reallocating hundreds of billions in clean energy incentives. Projects like the near-complete Revolution Wind offshore farm have been halted, creating massive uncertainty for over $100B in renewable investments.

THE CONSEQUENCES:

🔸SUPPLY SHORTFALL: Businesses, especially in AI, face power constraints. Wait times for new gas turbines have doubled; new capacity can't be built fast enough.

🔸HIGHER COSTS: Consumers, promised lower bills, will likely pay more as cheaper renewable options are sidelined.

🔸EMISSIONS: US oil & gas production is forecast to double Russia's by 2035, accelerating climate breakdown.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Fighting a perceived "climate emergency" with a fossil-fuel-centric "energy emergency" makes America less competitive and more expensive. A classic case of unintended consequences meets ideological policy.

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🚨🇺🇦💸The $400B Ukraine Gamble: A "Giant Opportunity" or Fiscal Insanity?

The Economist's latest cover proposes a $390B lifeline to Ukraine, framing it as a "giant opportunity" for Europe.

Let's break this down.

THE PROPOSAL:

🔸$160B from seizing frozen Russian assets

🔸$230B from new EU joint borrowing

🔸Total: $390B over 4 years

THE PROBLEMS:

🔸MORAL HAZARD

Blank-check funding incentivizes Ukrainian maximalism, potentially foreclosing negotiated settlements.

🔸ECONOMIC FANTASY

Calling this "excellent value" is absurd. Most funds either:

🟠 Fill Ukraine's budget deficit (vanishing into a black hole)

🟠 Buy European weapons to be given to Ukraine

Defense spending is notoriously inefficient—low productivity, capital-intensive, with minimal economic spillover.

🔸FISCAL RECKLESSNESS

This would blast EU debt to nearly $1 TRILLON.

Remember: When EU debt was just hundreds of billions, experts warned of unsustainable borrowing costs. Pushing toward $1 TRILLION threatens:

🟠 Soaring interest payments

🟠 Squeezed EU budgets

🟠 Economic instability amid current struggles

THE REAL AGENDA

This would "deepen Europe’s single capital market and boost the role of the euro."

War financing is being weaponized as an instrument of fiscal union. This $400B package represents a forced political rapprochement—imposing a new stage of European integration under the guise of a "historic deal."

Common debt burden means common policy. Once member states accept mutualized Ukraine debt, they surrender fiscal sovereignty.

Ukraine funding is the Trojan Horse for federalization. European citizens face a $400B bill for a political project they never voted for.

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🚨🇨🇳🇮🇷China-Iran Rail Corridor Officially Launched – A Direct Challenge to Western Maritime Dominance

A new 7,500-mile steel artery is now OPERATIONAL, connecting Xi'an, China, to Tehran, Iran. This isn't just a railway; it's a geopolitical game-changer.

KEY FACTS:

🔸The Route: Traverses SIX nations: China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, and Turkey.

🔸The Advantage: Cuts transit time to 15 days – HALF the 30 days required by sea.

🔸The Bypass: Strategically avoids Western-controlled maritime chokepoints: the Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, and the Suez Canal.

🔸The Tech: A modern marvel with electrified, double-track rails, AI-driven logistics, and seamless digital customs clearance.

THE BIG PICTURE:

This corridor is a calculated move to reshape Eurasian trade and challenge centuries of Western maritime hegemony. It:

🔸Hardens Supply Chains: Creates a sanctions-resistant, "geopolitically armored" route for high-value goods.

🔸Restores Iran: Positions Iran as the pivotal transit hub between East and West, a role it has historically held.

🔸Accelerates Multipolarity: This is physical infrastructure for a multipolar world, reducing reliance on Western-controlled sea lanes.

This stands in stark contrast to the US-backed IMEC corridor, which has stalled. The China-Iran corridor is ALREADY RUNNING, a testament to Beijing and Tehran's strategic alignment and long-term planning.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

This corridor transcends mere logistics; it is the physical manifestation of a declinist West and the rise of a sovereign Eurasian economic bloc. Power, once dictated by those who command the seas, is now being seized by those who build the indispensable connections on land. The map of global influence is being redrawn, not by decree, but in steel and scheduled freight.

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🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪VENEZUELA'S TRUMP WAR GAME EXPOSED: MADURO OUT, CHAOS IN

A declassified Pentagon study, led by security consultant Douglas Farah, paints a STARK picture of a post-Maduro Venezuela.

THE POWER VACUUM:

🔸Violent clashes would erupt nationwide.

🔸Power void filled by:

🟠 Loyalist military factions

🟠Drug cartels

🟠 Colombian guerrilla armies (FARC & ELN) - "decades of combat experience" & view the US as their primary enemy.

THE US INTERVENTION DILEMMA:

Restoring order would be a MASSIVE undertaking.

🔸Requires "tens of thousands" of US troops.

🔸The challenge: controlling a capital of millions, securing ports, and engaging up to 4,000 battle-hardened FARC dissidents in the hinterlands.

🔸Establishing full territorial control would be probably impossible for what the US has a tolerance for.

THE IRAQ PARALLEL:

The situation echoes pre-Iraq invasion critiques. Removing a dictator is one thing; managing the "day after" is a completely different, and often disastrous, mission.

CURRENT CONTEXT:

The Trump admin is ramping up military presence in the Caribbean. But with the classic TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) behaviour is uncertain if this is a pressure campaign or a prelude to action.

THE COVERT OPTION:

CIA operations are authorized, but is facing major hurdles. Cuban counter-intelligence within the regime is making defection schemes difficult. A recent $50M bounty attempt on Maduro's pilot failed, with the pilot declaring, "The last thing we are is traitors."

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Farah's sobering assessment: Maduro is likely to remain in power because "all the options to bring him down are so bad."

The 2019 war game scenario highlights the immense risks of regime change, where the aftermath could be more destabilizing than the status quo.

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