Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
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Stacy Muur’s alpha channel.
𝕏: https://x.com/stacy_muur
Blog: https://stacymuur.substack.com
Chat: @muur_talks
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Solana stablecoin supply went from ~$3B two years ago to ~$12B last year, and now sits near ~$16B this December.

At this point, growth looks programmed.
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Arbitrum pushed close to a quarter-trillion dollars in DEX volume in 2025.

Liquidity went where execution stayed cheap and deep.
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RWA topped 2025 in profitability, averaging ~186% YTD across leading tokens.

Outperformance came mainly from Keeta, Zebec, and Maple Finance — though returns were still only a fraction of 2024’s mania. Narratives cool, cash flows stay.
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Fundraising cooled in deal count but not in conviction.

Liquidity fragmented, fewer rounds closed than in 2024, yet VCs still deployed ~$68B in 2025 — mostly into narrative leaders with larger checks.
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Around 70% of ETH derivatives positions on Binance are now net long.

Whales keep accumulating as exchange balances hover near cycle lows. Supply pressure is tightening quietly.
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2025 wasn’t kind to GameFi: funding is down 55%+ YoY and most hyped launches failed to deliver.

What’s actually working are Web2.5 games – teams like Fumb, Mythical, and Wemade using blockchain as infra, not a product. Web3-native games still print some revenue, but player depth collapses once incentives fade.
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By the end of 2025, L1s still dominate user mindshare.

Narratives rotate, but base layers keep pulling attention.
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Arbitrum scaled its Treasury Management Program to $100M+ across RWAs, ETH, ARB, and stables.

In 2025 alone it generated $2M+ in yield, running around ~3% APY over the last month. Boring, but effective.
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Not funny, but factual: BTC has never closed a year red – until now.

2025 ends with BTC at roughly -6% YTD. History doesn’t repeat, but it does flinch sometimes.
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Stablecoin activity during European hours jumped sharply in 2025.

Even under tighter regulation, usage keeps growing – adoption doesn’t wait for perfect policy.
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Tokenized stocks just hit a $1.2B market cap ATH.

Feels like stablecoins circa 2020 – niche, misunderstood, and clearly not done yet.
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Prediction markets aren’t just about elections anymore.

Open interest hit a new ATH in December 2025, confirming PMF across broader event classes. This category escaped its original box.
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Just dropped my watchlist, based on a16z Big Ideas for 2026.

Enjoy reading!
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Probably not shocking: only ~12% of 2025 token sales are still above their launch price.

Most deals popped early and faded fast, with attention shrinking and holding periods compressing. Token-sale investing turned into a timing game.
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In 2021, Coinbase lived almost entirely off trading fees.

By Q3 2025, ~40% of revenue comes from subscriptions and services. Survivors diversify.
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Blockspace keeps getting cheaper as throughput scales and fees drift toward cents.

That shift unlocked more consumer flows and high-frequency use cases – sub-$1K USDT and USDC transfers crossed 10M this year, over 3× YoY.
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Many 2025 listings are now 90-99% down from ATH FDV.

The euphoric window was short – reality arrived faster than liquidity.
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Long-term BTC holders just stopped distributing – first time since July.

Supply pressure eased, which usually sets the stage for a relief move. Market finally gets some breathing room.
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RWAs are compounding quietly.

$17B TVL looks small, but it’s already +130% YTD – keep that curve and you’re staring at ~$40B next year and ~$90B by 2027. Exponentials don’t announce themselves early.
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Rough year-end for x402.

Average transaction size kept bleeding out, hitting an all-time daily low below $0.05 in late December. Usage is there, value isn’t.
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