Current Avdeevka northern flank front line.

Ru is currently pushing behind the railway in the northwestern direction. Securing that triangle in between the two rail lines will be extremely helpful in removing Ua presence in berdychi.

Ua servicemen captured by Ru forces in the Avdeevka direction.

Lancet destroys an M109, notice the targeting software.

Lancet is evolving

Rut Roe Rwaggy

No caption for this one.

Armchair Warlord on X

“Update on the ongoing Battle of Avdeevka, now with a PowerPoint map that I can easily update.

The Russians have consolidated their positions on the northeast and southern high ground in the last two weeks and continued to claw forwards across the board.

I've marked key intervisibility lines on the map with solid lines and the (very approximate) Russian front line with a dashed line - although I will take pains to remind the reader that this "front line" is by no means a solid line of trenches a-la WWI and more like an imaginary line drawn between forward outposts. Most forces currently "engaged" are located well to the rear in the built-up strongpoints (marked with circles) or even farther back. Notable changes in the last two weeks, marked with numbered stars:

1. The Russians have seized control of the town of Stepove north of Avdeevka and started wrapping their front line around the north side of the AKHZ industrial zone. Even seizing the first line of buildings in the zone will allow them to push on to attack the "North Shield Line," an intervisibility line overlooking the one remaining Main Supply Route (MSR) running into town. If they consolidate on that line, it will become extremely difficult to supply the Avdeevka garrison.

2. The Russians pushed into a small industrial district (marked SID) on the south side of town yesterday, seizing somewhere between half and 80% of it as of the last reports I've seen. Securing this area will allow them to outflank the defensive complex at the "Royal Hunt" recreation area (marked RH).

3. The Russians have expanded their zone of control beyond the "Terrikon" slag heap from the AKHZ plant and seized some nearby terrain, effectively turning the Terrikon from a front-line fighting position into a secure base of operations near the Ukrainian stronghold in the AKHZ.

4. Russian troops have pushed the front line forward from the South IV Line and established a forward position near the town of Severnoe in the south. If they can seize that town they can then push on to the "South Shield Line," which overlooks the MSR at close range. Taking this line will also make it extremely difficult to take Avdeevka - taking both shield lines will effectively surround any remaining garrison forces, as they would have to break out along the MSR under effective direct fire from Russian heavy weapons.

The Russians have fought off determined and large-scale Ukrainian counterattacks to get to this point. The scale of Ukrainian efforts to retain the town can be seen in their sending elite units to try to stabilize the situation - first the 47th Brigade of Hundred Days fame and lately the 3rd Assault Brigade "Azov," which has led to a considerable deterioration of their position around Bakhmut where it was formerly operating. Contra to Ukrainian claims, the Russian assault force is only division-sized (quite comparable to the Ukrainian force in and around the town) and I am unaware of them having rotated any of the units that stepped off the attack a month ago for reconstruction due to combat losses.

The obvious military move would be to withdraw the garrison once one of the Shield Lines is taken to avoid an encirclement, although knowing the Ukrainians they may opt to see the place besieged and then try to relieve it a-la Stalingrad. We all know how that turned out, so I wouldn't call that a wise course of action.”

New Russian gains towards Kupyansk.

The Krasnopol laser-guided shell destroys the 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled gun of the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

t.me/zoka200

Stepove is either grey zone or entirely under Ru control now.

“Abrams tanks transferred to the United States could not play a big role on the battlefield because Ukraine received too few of them” -Zelensky

There has reportedly been a large buildup of strategic bombers at Engels Air Force Base in Russia.

This is where most massive strike days begin.