Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain

Since our Aug 25 post, distribution has softened but not reversed. Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (>0.8). The market remains in a broadly neutral-to-distribution regime.

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept 10th, the largest daily inflow since mid-July.

This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level.

Chart Link: glassno.de/3IhGs9B

Throughout this bull market, BTC short-term holder realized price has effectively served as a support baseline.
As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive. Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.

Chart Link: https://glassno.de/41UGivu

The SOPR ratio of <3-month holders—tracking the profit margin of active spenders—bounced off neutral (SOPR = 1) as BTC found support at $107k.

Short-term investors' on-chain behaviour confirms the market is anticipating a positive outcome from this week’s FOMC meeting.

This bounce suggests renewed confidence among recent buyers, with many returning to profitability just days ahead of the Fed decision. Historically, such patterns often precede sharp reactions to macro catalysts.

glassno.de/4po5uo2

This renewed confidence largely stems from price reclaiming the cost basis of all sub-3-month holders, which ranges between $111.8k and $114.2k.

For this momentum to hold, BTC must remain above this range post-FOMC. Failure to do so could signal a classic “sell the news” market structure.


glassno.de/4mud4Lu

#Bitcoin is ~6.8% below its ATH, heading into the most anticipated FOMC meeting of the cycle.
Options traders are rapidly buying options to hedge or position for a volatility spike, reflecting the market’s uncertainty and expectation of a major move.

https://glassno.de/46G8Vz9

Over the past 48 hours, centralized exchanges have seen three distinct waves of inflows exceeding $25M per block.
The latest wave aligned with BTC’s pullback from $117.2k, suggesting a partial spot market sell-off.

📈https://glassno.de/46NPO5l

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, with recent activity pushing firmly into positive territory. This reinforces institutional demand as a key pillar of market support, even as price slowly climbs near cycle highs.

https://glassno.de/47Qk41y