The 7D-SMA funding rate across major perpetual markets has improved modestly.
Mean funding recovered from ~0% to ~0.005%, before easing to ~0.003% over the past 24 hours.
Historically, sustained market advances tend to coincide with funding rates holding consistently above ~0.01%, suggesting current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.

📉 http://glassno.de/3L50Ig9

The Week On-Chain 1, 2026
Bitcoin enters 2026 with a cleaner market structure after a major year-end reset. Profit-taking has eased, and risk appetite is cautiously rebuilding, but reclaiming key cost-basis levels remains critical for confirming sustained upside.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin enters 2026 following a decisive drawdown and consolidation phase, with on-chain metrics indicating reduced profit-taking pressure and early signs of structural stabilization around the lower end of the current range.

- A large volume of overhead supply remains clustered across the upper range, continuing to cap breakout attempts and reinforcing the importance of key recovery thresholds being reclaimed before trend expansion can resume.

- Corporate treasury demand continues to provide stabilizing support beneath price but remains episodic rather than persistently structural.

- US spot ETF flows have begun to re-emerge following late-2025 outflows. At the same time, futures open interest has stabilized and is turning higher, reflecting early signs of renewed institutional participation and rebuilding derivatives engagement.

-The largest options open interest reset on record has cleared more than 45% of outstanding positioning, removing structural hedging constraints and providing a cleaner read on fresh risk expression.

- Implied volatility has likely bottomed, with early-year taker demand gently lifting the volatility surface while remaining near the lower bound of its recent range.

- Skew continues to normalize as put premia compress and call participation rises, while new-year options flows tilt increasingly toward calls, signalling a rotation away from defensive hedging toward upside participation.

- Dealer gamma has flipped short between $95K–$104K, mechanically reinforcing upside price movement during strength, while call premium behaviour around the $95K strike suggests patience among upside participants with limited profit-taking.

- Collectively, the market is transitioning from defensive deleveraging into selective re-risking, beginning in 2026 with a cleaner structure and renewed optionality for expansion.


Read more in The Week On-Chain

🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading around $89.9K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $98.9K
--- Spot Price: $89.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.0K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K

📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

Long-term $BTC holder distribution has decelerated. Net outflows have rolled over from extreme levels, indicating that the market is progressively absorbing long-held supply and that a large portion of overhead supply may now be largely worked through.
📈 glassno.de/3ZdVEct

As Long-Term Holders (LTHs) transition from a high-spending regime in H2 2025 to lower spending in Jan 2026, their profit-taking volumes have cooled to levels typically observed in shallow bear phases.

Such conditions are often associated with heightened uncertainty and tend to emerge during mid-bull market pauses or the early stages of deeper bear markets.

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