Bitcoin Market Pulse
BTC pulled back to $107k last week, testing the short-term holder cost basis - a level that often defines near-term sentiment.
Spot signals weakened with RSI in oversold territory and volumes down, while futures OI contracted and options skew surged, showing stronger demand for downside protection. ETF flows turned positive with $396M inflows, but participation remains selective.
On-chain activity stayed subdued: active addresses fell to 690k, fees remain weak, and realized cap inflows slowed. Transfer volumes spiked to $10.8B, reflecting large entity repositioning rather than broad participation.
We also cover holder rotation, ETF MVRV trends, and how fading unrealized profits are reshaping sentiment: https://glassno.de/41wP6aE
BTC pulled back to $107k last week, testing the short-term holder cost basis - a level that often defines near-term sentiment.
Spot signals weakened with RSI in oversold territory and volumes down, while futures OI contracted and options skew surged, showing stronger demand for downside protection. ETF flows turned positive with $396M inflows, but participation remains selective.
On-chain activity stayed subdued: active addresses fell to 690k, fees remain weak, and realized cap inflows slowed. Transfer volumes spiked to $10.8B, reflecting large entity repositioning rather than broad participation.
We also cover holder rotation, ETF MVRV trends, and how fading unrealized profits are reshaping sentiment: https://glassno.de/41wP6aE
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Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) shows a clear divergence in spot flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum: BTC spot activity is dense, while ETH remains sparse with air gaps. This suggests ETH price dynamics may be more influenced by off-chain markets such as derivatives.
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Sizing Up the Dip
Trading at $110k, only ~9% of BTC supply is in loss, carrying up to 10% unrealized losses. In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses.
This dip remains relatively shallow.
Chart here: https://glassno.de/4nepLKZ
Trading at $110k, only ~9% of BTC supply is in loss, carrying up to 10% unrealized losses. In contrast, the local bottom of this cycle saw >25% of supply at up to 23% losses, and global bear markets have reached >50% supply with up to 78% losses.
This dip remains relatively shallow.
Chart here: https://glassno.de/4nepLKZ
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The Week On-Chain 35, 2025
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out.
- Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band.
- Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k.
- Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out.
- Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band.
- Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k.
- Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
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Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) has been climbing to new highs, reflecting strong put demand. This isn’t purely a sign of bearishness; it often signals institutional hedging activity. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, institutions are stepping in, gaining exposure while using puts to manage downside risk.
Chart link: https://glassno.de/4n4eDR2
Chart link: https://glassno.de/4n4eDR2
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Bitcoin has been trading just above the short-term holder cost basis, oscillating near $111k. This week’s Market Pulse reviews fragile stabilization across spot, futures, ETFs, and on-chain signals, with cautious sentiment still dominating: https://glassno.de/4nkrdvc
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Solana continues to outperform, with perp open interest climbing above $7B as price extends beyond $200. Market participation is clearly expanding.
Despite the rise in open interest, Perpetual Funding Rates remain relatively stable. This suggests the build-up is not excessively leveraged, leaving scope for further upside if momentum persists.
Chart Links:
https://glassno.de/42kiGjZ
https://glassno.de/42oenEe
Despite the rise in open interest, Perpetual Funding Rates remain relatively stable. This suggests the build-up is not excessively leveraged, leaving scope for further upside if momentum persists.
Chart Links:
https://glassno.de/42kiGjZ
https://glassno.de/42oenEe
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Consolidation Range
Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.
Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq
Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.
Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq
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Rangebound
Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.
Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M
Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.
Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M
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The Week On-Chain 36, 2025
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.
Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.
Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.
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Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain
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$BTC recovery has been fueled by macro momentum, ETF inflows, and futures. Yet weaker spot flows, softer funding, and profit-taking highlight emerging sell pressure, leaving sentiment improved but still fragile.
Read more in this week's Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4gpPe1X
Read more in this week's Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/4gpPe1X
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