📊 Market Expectations for the Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting

🔍 Following the recent interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, all eyes are now on the upcoming meeting scheduled for January 28, 2026. Current predictions indicate that the central bank is likely to maintain the target rate at its current level.

🗣 In a recent press conference, Powell emphasized that while there is a consensus on the need to address high inflation and a softening labor market, the real debate lies in how to balance these risks. He noted that

some members feel we should stop here and that we’re at the right place and just wait

📈 Futures markets, particularly CME’s Fedwatch Tool, show a strong leaning towards a no-change decision, with a 75.6% probability assigned to the Fed keeping the target rate steady. The likelihood of a rate cut stands at 24.4%, and expectations for a rate hike are virtually nonexistent.

📊 Prediction markets also align with this outlook. On Kalshi, the probability for the Fed maintaining rates is priced at 79%, while a 25-basis-point cut trails at 22%. Similarly, Polymarket shows a 78% probability for a no change decision, with a 21% chance for a 25-basis-point decrease.

⚡️ Japanese Leaders Unite for Institutional-Grade Digital Yen

👀 On December 16, 2025, Startale Group and SBI Holdings announced a Memorandum of Understanding to develop a fully regulated stablecoin denominated in Japanese yen. This initiative aims to provide an alternative in the $300 billion stablecoin market. Shinsei Trust & Banking will handle the issuance, while SBI VC Trade will manage circulation as a licensed Crypto Asset Exchange Service Provider.

🌍 Backed by Japan’s Financial Services Agency and supported by the Payment Innovation Project, the stablecoin is designed to serve as a global settlement currency and a bridge between regulated digital assets and the broader on-chain economy. The project is set to launch in Q2 2026, complementing Startale’s existing USDSC stablecoin and positioning Japan at the forefront of digital financial innovation.

⚠️ Key details include:
- Developers: Startale Group and SBI Holdings
- Launch Date: Q2 2026, after establishing a regulatory framework
- Primary Purpose: Global settlement and institutional adoption of a digital yen
- Regulatory Support: Financial Services Agency (FSA) through its Payment Innovation Project

🚀 Ripple Expands Partnership with TJM to Enhance Institutional Crypto Infrastructure

🌟 Ripple has strengthened its position in the crypto market by expanding its partnership with TJM Investments and TJM Institutional Services. This move aims to enhance execution, clearing, and balance-sheet support for institutional clients, reflecting a growing demand for scalable digital-asset market infrastructure.

🚫 The partnership builds on a long-standing collaboration between the two firms.

Under the terms of the partnership, Ripple has invested in TJM, and will continue to provide best-in-class infrastructure to support TJM’s execution and clearing services.

The announcement highlights the focus on delivering high-quality trade execution and financing to institutions.

🌍 Ripple Prime, Ripple's multi-asset prime brokerage platform, plays a crucial role in this expanded partnership.

Ripple Prime has long been an important partner to TJM and our joint clients, delivering the operational standards expected by the most sophisticated financial market participants worldwide,

said TJM Co-Manager Steve Beitler. He emphasized the importance of this investment in providing the necessary resources and infrastructure for order flow execution.

📈 The enhanced arrangement offers TJM improved capital efficiency, greater clearing stability, and reinforced balance-sheet capacity for global market operations. Ripple Prime President Noel Kimmel expressed the intention to support TJM's growth and participate as a strategic investor. He noted that

TJM’s execution capabilities across asset classes, along with Ripple Prime’s scale and global reach, create a combined offering for institutional clients.

OpenLedger's influence is expanding from its Korean origins to capture global institutional interest.

The strategic investment from Netmarble's MarbleX underscores growing confidence in the essential role of verifiable AI and transparent data infrastructure.

This validation, combined with active key partnerships, a public development roadmap, and notable market performance (~15% in 24h), indicates strong building momentum. Continued traction could pave the way toward the $0.30 benchmark.

Check it out:

👉 Announcement
👉 Telegram: English | China | Korea
👉 Twitter: Global | China

🚫 Bitcoin's Santa Rally Odds: AI Models Weigh In

📉 As Bitcoin hovers just below $90,000 as the year ends, traders are curious about the possibility of a Santa Rally in 2025. Three leading AI models—ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini—were consulted to analyze Bitcoin's price movements and predict a potential late-December rebound.

⚡️ A Santa Rally typically refers to a period of market strength during the last days of December and the first trading sessions of January. For Bitcoin, this period extends from late December through early January, when liquidity is thin and price movements can be exaggerated.

🤔 All three AI models acknowledged that 2025 has been tumultuous for Bitcoin, with significant price swings throughout the year. However, they differed in their expectations for a holiday rally.

❗️ Gemini views 2025 as a "mountain" market with early pressure, a midyear climb to record highs, and a sharp cooldown into Q4. It assigns 55% odds to a Santa Rally scenario, citing renewed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows and improving macro expectations as potential catalysts.

📉 Grok takes a more cautious approach, highlighting compressed volatility and a market still recovering from a double-digit drawdown. It estimates the odds of a meaningful Santa Rally at 30% to 40%, noting that historical December gains for Bitcoin have been mixed without a clear catalyst.

📌 ChatGPT offers a middle-ground perspective, framing 2025 as a year of ups and downs with multiple record attempts followed by digestion phases. It assigns 45% odds to a Santa Rally, acknowledging the potential for a bounce but tempering enthusiasm due to lingering macro pressure.

📊 In summary, the three AI models present a market caught between exhaustion and hesitation. While there are indicators for a potential Santa Rally, such as washed-out sentiment and seasonal tendencies, there are also challenges like unresolved technical resistance and cautious derivatives positioning. The average of the forecasts suggests that a Santa Rally is possible but not guaranteed, and if it occurs, it is likely to be modest rather than spectacular.

🗓 Grayscale's Bullish Outlook for Crypto Markets in 2026

📈 Grayscale Investments has released a report titled “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era,” presenting a optimistic perspective on the crypto market despite prevailing skepticism. The report asserts that 2026 will signify the end of the current four-year cycle and anticipates increased valuations across all six crypto sectors, with bitcoin potentially surpassing its previous high in the first half of the year.

Grayscale believes that the crypto asset class is in a sustained bull market,

the firm states, emphasizing the growing demand for alternative stores of value and regulatory clarity as key drivers for institutional investment in public blockchain technology.

🚫 Grayscale identifies six crypto sectors: currencies, smart contract platforms, financials, consumer and culture, artificial intelligence, and utilities and services. The report outlines ten major crypto investing themes for 2026:

1. Dollar debasement risk driving demand for monetary alternatives.
2. Regulatory clarity supporting digital asset adoption.
3. Growth of stablecoins following the GENIUS Act.
4. Asset tokenization reaching an inflection point.
5. Stronger privacy solutions needed as blockchain technology mainstreams.
6. AI centralization creating demand for blockchain-based solutions.
7. Acceleration of decentralized finance (DeFi), led by lending.
8. Mainstream adoption requiring next-generation infrastructure.
9. Increased focus on sustainable revenue by investors.
10. Default seeking of staking by investors.

🚫 However, Grayscale downplays the impact of quantum computing and corporate digital asset treasuries on crypto prices in 2026, viewing them as longer-term or marginal factors.

We see a bright outlook for digital assets in 2026, underpinned by the dual forces of macro demand for alternative stores of value and improving regulatory clarity,

the report concludes. It highlights the importance of strengthening the connection between blockchain-based finance and traditional finance and anticipates institutional capital inflows. However, it also cautions that

not every token will make a successful transition from the old one.

🚫 Elon Musk's Concerns Over China's Silver Export Restrictions

🚨 Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has expressed his concerns regarding China's impending restrictions on silver exports. He emphasized the importance of silver in various industrial processes, stating,

This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.

These restrictions, set to take effect on January 1, will require companies to obtain licenses and state approval for silver exports.

📈 China is the second-largest producer of silver globally, following Mexico, with a production of 110.1 million ounces in 2024. The Silver Institute reports indicate that increased demand coupled with stagnant supply has led to a surge in silver prices in Shanghai and Comex markets. This situation raises concerns for industries that rely on silver, such as battery and automotive sectors, including Tesla, as they may face supply constraints due to these state-imposed limitations.

🔍 The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently listed silver as a critical mineral, highlighting its significance for economic growth and technological leadership in the United States. It remains uncertain whether the Trump Administration will take steps to secure silver supplies for domestic industries in light of this recognition.

💬 Congressman Warren Davidson Reflects on Bitcoin's True Purpose

🗣 In his New Year’s message, Congressman Warren Davidson emphasized the original vision for Bitcoin as a "permission-less, peer-to-peer payment system" rather than an "illiquid inflating asset." He noted that this vision was articulated by Bitcoin's creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

🔍 Davidson, a proponent of cryptocurrency, discussed the current state of crypto regulation in the U.S. and the future of assets like Bitcoin. He pointed out that recent shifts in the cryptocurrency ecosystem stem from efforts to undermine the disintermediation that digital assets offer.

🚫 He criticized the GENIUS Act for laying the groundwork for a central bank digital currency (CBDC), arguing that its superficial changes do not address underlying issues.

On the back end all of the other characteristics of CBDC are being built while the massive deficits that undermine the value of the dollar continue unabated

he stressed.

⚖️ Regarding the CLARITY Act, which aims to address gaps left by the GENIUS Act, Davidson expressed skepticism about its prospects in the Senate, anticipating little challenge to the current accounts-based regime.

💪 He highlighted Bitcoin's advantages over government systems, stating:

The promise of Bitcoin was not an illiquid inflating asset, but rather a permission-less, peer-to-peer payment system.

He emphasized that with Bitcoin, users can access their funds without third-party restrictions and transfer them instantly.

🙏 Davidson concluded by urging a rejection of the current trend towards CBDCs, acknowledging the slim chances for Congress to change course but expressing hope that

miracles still happen.

⚠️ Silver Prices: Bubble Signals or Continued Growth?

📈 The debate over whether silver is in a bubble has intensified among investors. On December 30, French bank Societe Generale reported that its quantitative models indicate bubble-like behavior in silver prices, prompting a deeper discussion on how to interpret these signals.

🔍 Dr. Mike Haigh, head of FIC & Commodity Research at Societe Generale, applied the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) framework to assess silver's price movements. The analysts noted a recent dramatic surge above $80/oz that some perceived as bubble-like. However, they emphasized that viewing the data on a logarithmic scale reveals a more stable trend, stating,

The logarithmic scale is the correct baseline because it clearly reveals the underlying exponential trend.

⚠️ While the LPPLS framework suggests a potential bubble in the silver market, Societe Generale cautioned against interpreting these model outputs as standalone forecasts. They warned,

If one were to rely solely on this model, we could claim that the silver market is in a bubble. We firmly warn against this.

📊 The bank's research also pointed out that silver's smaller and less liquid market structure compared to gold makes it more susceptible to herding behavior and amplified volatility. The analysts stated,

We therefore prefer to interpret the ‘bubble’ regime as potential instability indicators, as we would always expect healthy corrections to extreme price moves.

📉 Despite the technical indicators suggesting potential instability, Societe Generale highlighted fundamental factors supporting silver demand. These include de-dollarization trends, geopolitical uncertainty, and tightening physical supply. The bank noted upcoming export restrictions from China, which supplies a significant portion of refined silver globally and could exacerbate existing supply deficits.

🚨ABTC Stock Rises as Trump-Linked American Bitcoin Boosts Holdings to 5,427 BTC

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🚫 Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge into 2026 with $1.2 Billion in Inflows

📈 Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have made a powerful entrance into 2026, attracting over $1.2 billion in inflows within the first two trading days. This significant momentum indicates a growing investor demand and suggests a shift towards large-scale adoption that could transform capital gains exposure to bitcoin.

The spot bitcoin ETFs are coming into 2026 like a lion, +$1.2 in flows in first two days of year w/ everyone eating. That’s a $150b/yr pace,

said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on January 6. He emphasized that this initial surge is a sign of a larger structural trend rather than a temporary spike, with early inflows translating to an annualized pace of approximately $150 billion.

💪 Despite recent market uncertainties, spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital, indicating that improving sentiment and price strength could further boost allocations. Inflows were seen across most major issuers, demonstrating broad-based demand.

⚡️ This momentum follows Morgan Stanley Investment Management's recent filing for spot bitcoin and solana ETFs, marking the first attempt by a major U.S. bank to directly issue such products. This move signifies a shift from distribution to issuance as the firm aims to leverage rising institutional demand.

Told ya’ll if they can take in $22b when it’s raining, imagine when the sun is shining,

Balchunas added, highlighting the potential for even greater inflows as market conditions improve.

🔗 The strong start reinforces the perspective that bitcoin ETFs are entering a more sustainable phase of adoption. Investors are increasingly viewing them as long-term exposure vehicles rather than short-term trading tools. At the current rate, spot bitcoin ETFs could become one of the fastest-growing exchange-traded product categories.

🚫 Bitcoin Whale Resurfaces: 2,000 Dormant BTC Transferred After Years

🔍 A 2010-era bitcoin whale has made headlines again after a long absence, transferring 2,000 bitcoins that had been dormant since bitcoin's early days. This significant move, valued at $181 million, was processed in a single transaction at block height 931668.

📈 Bitcoin News has been tracking this particular whale since 2020, believing it to be a single entity rather than multiple wallets. Recent blockchain analysis indicates that this entity had been gradually selling off its 2010 coinbase rewards even before we identified it six years ago.

“A miner just sold 2,000 BTC from block rewards dormant since 2010, transferring the funds to Coinbase Exchange,”

wrote Sani, founder of timechainindex, on X.

🔗 The bitcoins were moved from 40 P2PK addresses to a consolidated P2SH address before reaching the crypto exchange Coinbase. This pattern is consistent with the whale's previous transactions, which have often shown connections to Coinbase-linked wallets.

📉 Interestingly, the matching bitcoin cash (BCH) associated with these block rewards was shuffled about five years ago. Despite having offloaded large amounts of coins in the past, this whale has shown little concern for bitcoin's price fluctuations.

The coins moved today with BTC sitting just north of the $90,000 mark.

📌 The whale's behavior suggests a methodical, long-term approach rather than a reactive strategy aimed at maximizing profits from market timing. With such a substantial bitcoin reserve, minor price differences seem insignificant to this entity.

‼️ As this whale retreats once more into the shadows, analysts are left to speculate on when its next move will occur. Based on past patterns, it could be months or even years before another batch of 2010-era rewards is quietly transferred onto the blockchain.

🪙 Clearbank Partners with Taurus for Stablecoin Services

🚫 On January 13, 2026, Clearbank and Taurus announced a strategic partnership in London and Geneva. Clearbank has chosen Taurus-Protect as its wallet infrastructure provider to enhance digital asset services for its clients. This collaboration aims to provide secure, scalable, and compliant support for stablecoin-related services, aligning with Clearbank's recent decision to join the Circle Payment Network.

🔗 The integration will connect Taurus-Protect with Circle Mint, which is Circle's platform for minting and redeeming Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)-compliant USDC and EURC. This aims to enhance efficiency for corporate payments and international remittances. Mark Fairless, CEO of Clearbank, stated,

This partnership is an important step for Clearbank as we bring new, innovative services to our clients.

However, the availability of these services will depend on applicable laws and regulatory approvals in each jurisdiction.

🌍 The partnership will enable Clearbank to offer stablecoin-related wallet infrastructure and digital asset services to its UK clients. It will also support MiCA-compliant USDC and EURC in Europe, with the integration targeting relevant jurisdictions. The agreement marks a significant step for Clearbank as it expands its service offerings in the crypto space.