Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Yesterday, POLITICO broke that the Pentagon paused some shipments of ammo to Ukraine. The decision, driven by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is claimed by DoD to be in response to concerns about their own stockpiles.
Is that true?
No. It is not.
🧵 ⬇️ 1/19
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Yesterday, POLITICO broke that the Pentagon paused some shipments of ammo to Ukraine. The decision, driven by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is claimed by DoD to be in response to concerns about their own stockpiles.
Is that true?
No. It is not.
🧵 ⬇️ 1/19
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Department of Defense stocks of a wide variety of munitions are undoubtedly depleted due to the War in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, but the devil is always in the details. POLITICO reports that the pause has impacted both deliveries under PDA & USAI.
2/19
Department of Defense stocks of a wide variety of munitions are undoubtedly depleted due to the War in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, but the devil is always in the details. POLITICO reports that the pause has impacted both deliveries under PDA & USAI.
2/19
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) is the mechanism for delivery of defense articles to Ukraine from DoD stocks. USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) allows for the procurement of defense articles from industry or partner countries.
3/19
PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) is the mechanism for delivery of defense articles to Ukraine from DoD stocks. USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) allows for the procurement of defense articles from industry or partner countries.
3/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Deliveries from past Drawdowns authorized by the Biden Admin have long been expected to conclude this summer. Sec Def Hegseth recently stated that they are currently executing on PDAs #71-74, implying that previous PDA execute orders have been completed.
4/19
Deliveries from past Drawdowns authorized by the Biden Admin have long been expected to conclude this summer. Sec Def Hegseth recently stated that they are currently executing on PDAs #71-74, implying that previous PDA execute orders have been completed.
4/19
vxTwitter / fixvx
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar)
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Sec Def Hegseth to SAC-D: Deliveries to Ukraine from the final 4 Drawdowns announced by the Biden Admin (#71-74; Dec/Jan; total value $2.975 billion) are still ongoing.
This suggests that execute orders for prior PDAs have been closed out.
This suggests that execute orders for prior PDAs have been closed out.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Deliveries from USAI, if allowed to proceed unmolested, would continue for years to come. As of December, there was still $10 billion in committed funding that was still not obligated (put on contract). I'd be surprised if this has substantially changed since then.
5/19
Deliveries from USAI, if allowed to proceed unmolested, would continue for years to come. As of December, there was still $10 billion in committed funding that was still not obligated (put on contract). I'd be surprised if this has substantially changed since then.
5/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
We now come to what specific munitions have been held up due to these supposed concerns about the DoD's own depleted inventory levels. The weapons are sitting in Poland, and NPR has acquired an exact list of whats being held back.
6/19
We now come to what specific munitions have been held up due to these supposed concerns about the DoD's own depleted inventory levels. The weapons are sitting in Poland, and NPR has acquired an exact list of whats being held back.
6/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
92 AIM-7 Sparrow missiles
30 PAC-3 MSEs
8496 155mm rounds
142 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles
252 GMLRS
25 Stinger missiles
125 AT-4 recoilless anti-tank guns
7/19
92 AIM-7 Sparrow missiles
30 PAC-3 MSEs
8496 155mm rounds
142 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles
252 GMLRS
25 Stinger missiles
125 AT-4 recoilless anti-tank guns
7/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This is a very modest list of ammunition; nothing that is going to compromise the DoD's own readiness. AIM-7 in particular is scarcely used by US fighter aircraft, if at all. MSE was not included in PDAs 71-74, meaning it is coming via USAI and not US stocks.
8/19
This is a very modest list of ammunition; nothing that is going to compromise the DoD's own readiness. AIM-7 in particular is scarcely used by US fighter aircraft, if at all. MSE was not included in PDAs 71-74, meaning it is coming via USAI and not US stocks.
8/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Hellfire, which was not previously known to be provided to Ukraine by the US, has not been procured since 2023/2024 due to inventory requirements being met. The only item on the list that is likely having an impact on inventory requirements are the 252 GMLRS.
9/19
Hellfire, which was not previously known to be provided to Ukraine by the US, has not been procured since 2023/2024 due to inventory requirements being met. The only item on the list that is likely having an impact on inventory requirements are the 252 GMLRS.
9/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
GMLRS is interesting because there have been anecdotes from Ukraine observing a recent increase in GMLRS fire missions. This is likely due to the first lot of contracted GMLRS via USAI being delivered this year. That first lot (FY23) is scheduled to conclude next month.
10/19
GMLRS is interesting because there have been anecdotes from Ukraine observing a recent increase in GMLRS fire missions. This is likely due to the first lot of contracted GMLRS via USAI being delivered this year. That first lot (FY23) is scheduled to conclude next month.
10/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
With Lockheed Martin producing 14,000 GMLRS per year, the US Army can afford to give up 250 more from their inventory now; assuming that all of them are from inventory, and not a mix of both PDA & new production from USAI.
11/19
With Lockheed Martin producing 14,000 GMLRS per year, the US Army can afford to give up 250 more from their inventory now; assuming that all of them are from inventory, and not a mix of both PDA & new production from USAI.
11/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This decision is just another example of Trump Admin officials actively working against the President's own agenda. At the NATO summit he pledged to work on sourcing additional PATRIOT assets for Ukraine, and scored a big win with the Alliance adopting the 5% target.
12/19
This decision is just another example of Trump Admin officials actively working against the President's own agenda. At the NATO summit he pledged to work on sourcing additional PATRIOT assets for Ukraine, and scored a big win with the Alliance adopting the 5% target.
12/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Any delay to the delivery of what has previously been promised to Ukraine is going to impact confidence in the United States as a supplier of arms to allies & partners. With the OMB sabotaging Trump's desire to see a strong military, the US needs those arms sales badly.
13/19
Any delay to the delivery of what has previously been promised to Ukraine is going to impact confidence in the United States as a supplier of arms to allies & partners. With the OMB sabotaging Trump's desire to see a strong military, the US needs those arms sales badly.
13/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This is all beyond Hegseth's comprehension though. Whereas Bridge and Vought are malicious actors, deliberately sabotaging both Ukraine and the entire Department of Defense under false pretenses. This isn't about the US' own readiness, its about harming Ukraine.
14/19
This is all beyond Hegseth's comprehension though. Whereas Bridge and Vought are malicious actors, deliberately sabotaging both Ukraine and the entire Department of Defense under false pretenses. This isn't about the US' own readiness, its about harming Ukraine.
14/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
One important detail in POLITICO's piece that has gone overlooked is this:
"The drawdowns from current stockpiles have continued under the Trump administration, which has been using up the last of the $61 billion in funding to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons"
15/19
One important detail in POLITICO's piece that has gone overlooked is this:
"The drawdowns from current stockpiles have continued under the Trump administration, which has been using up the last of the $61 billion in funding to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons"
15/19
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
There is no evidence that the Trump Admin has committed any of the $5.2 billion in PDA replacement funding that remained as of December. The Pentagon Comptroller has only published 1 technical correction to previous reprogramming actions since January 20.
16/19
There is no evidence that the Trump Admin has committed any of the $5.2 billion in PDA replacement funding that remained as of December. The Pentagon Comptroller has only published 1 technical correction to previous reprogramming actions since January 20.
16/19