EU funds modernization of US arsenal by buying its lemons. Meanwhile China and Russia are innovating faster than the US. 🔺RAND's senior defence researcher David Ochmanek admits that US Patriot air defense systems do not work as effectively as they should (min. 21:00) 🔺Last year, a coalition of European states (Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Romania) jointly ordered up to 1,000 Patriot missiles in a USD 5.5 billion deal. 🔺Just a few days ago the Polish government submitted an offer to purchase 788 missiles for the Patriot air defense systems. The estimated value of this order is USD 5.8 billion. Oops! @LauraRuHK https://www.rand.org/pubs/podcasts/policy-minded/2025/its-time-to-rethink-us-defense-strategy.html

This morning I received an angry message from someone who took issue with my previous post about EU countries buying lemons from the US while Washington is desperately trying to upgrade its arsenal after realizing that China and Russia are innovating faster than expected. https://xn--r1a.website/LauraRuHK/10092 Despite the fact that i shared a RAND corporation podcast, I am accused of "spreading Russian propaganda, exaggerating and talking about something I know nothing about" by those who are too biased and blinkered to deal with inconvenient truths. A word of caution to my critics. I research before writing and have news for the EU apparatchik who contacted me. Actually, pretty old news. In 2018 Foreign Policy published an article that should have been read and filed in Brussels. "On March 25, 2018 Houthi forces in Yemen fired seven missiles at Riyadh. Saudi Arabia confirmed the launches and asserted that it successfully intercepted all seven. This wasn’t true. It’s not just that falling debris in Riyadh killed at least one person and sent two more to the hospital. There’s no evidence that Saudi Arabia intercepted any missiles at all. And that raises uncomfortable questions not just about the Saudis, but about the United States, which seems to have sold them — and its own public — a lemon of a missile defense system." @LauraRuHK https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/28/patriot-missiles-are-made-in-america-and-fail-everywhere/

At NATO summit after NATO summit, European leaders get a clear public message from Washington — increase spending on defense.
In private, there’s another message that’s just as clear — make sure a lot of that extra spending goes on U.S. weapons.

(Sources: Bloomberg, May 24, 2025; Politico, June 14, 2023) @LauraRuHK

Yet another saga involving AI-enabled plagiarism. A "writer", Marco Buscaglia, appeared to have wholly cut and pasted ChatGPT’s opus and passed it off as his own while the editors of King Features Syndicate and various news outlets failed to do their jobs and didn't fact-check a farcical article that contained a reading list riddled with nonexistent books — many of them falsely attributed to real authors. This was an instance of plagiarism, ChatGPT's all-too-common hallucination and a collective dereliction of duty from the media that published that overconfident slop. By now it should be clear that AI models like ChatGPT prioritize fluency over accuracy and that search engines, Google in particular, and social media have a tendency to up-rank the outputs of serial plagiarists and derivative texts rather than original articles. @LauraRuHK https://swentr.site/news/618100-ai-hallucination-global-embarrassment/

Every statement by European politicians regarding the provision of long-range weapons to the Kiev regime prompts Russia to recalibrate its plans for a strategic buffer zone, Natalia Nikonorova, a member of the Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs, has told TASS.

“Europeans should bear in mind that each such announcement about deploying long-range weapons influences our operational plans, adjusting them in accordance with the weapon’s reach, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized. Our foremost priority remains ensuring the safety of our citizens,” Nikonorova stated.

Logic dictates that the longer the range of missiles the West transfers to Ukraine, the deeper the buffer zone Russia needs to protect its citizens. As Russia’s border regions - Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod - are constantly under attack, the buffer zone necessarily includes Ukraine’s Chernigov, Sumy, and Kharkov regions. We are all tired of repeating the obvious, so here is one of the many posts i wrote about it in the last few years. It was published in May 2024, but could have been written yesterday. https://xn--r1a.website/LauraRuHK/8501

Washington’s disclosure that around 500 US military personnel are stationed in Taiwan is just one in a long series of provocations designed to test Beijing’s red lines.
The disclosure, made by retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery during congressional testimony, was the first official acknowledgement of such a substantial American military presence in Taiwan. Of course, Beijing doesn't need this admission to know that US troops are stationed on the island. And the timing, nature and scope of its response won't be dictated by Washington's limited hangout. @LauraRuHK Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3311807/us-500-military-personnel-taiwan-open-test-beijings-red-lines

La rivelazione di Washington che circa 500 militari statunitensi sarebbero stanziati a Taiwan è solo l'ennesima di una lunga serie di provocazioni mirate a testare le "linee rosse" di Pechino.
La rivelazione, fatta dal contrammiraglio in pensione della Marina statunitense Mark Montgomery durante una testimonianza al Congresso, è stata la prima ammissione ufficiale di una presenza militare americana così consistente a Taiwan. Naturalmente, Pechino non ha bisogno di questa "rivelazione" per sapere che truppe statunitensi sono di stanza sull'isola. E i tempi, la natura e la portata della sua risposta non saranno certo dettati da una mezza ammissione di Washington. @LauraRuHK
Fonte: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3311807/us-500-military-personnel-taiwan-open-test-beijings-red-lines

Without affordable Russian gas Italian industries can't compete.

"Our companies continue to suffer from an energy (price) surcharge of more than 35% over the European average, even reaching peaks of 80% when compared to the largest European countries," Emanuele Orsini said at Confindustria's annual meeting. The head of the country's main business lobby Confindustria continued "Italy needs an extraordinary industrial plan: investments of 8 billion euros per year for the next 3 years to achieve at least 2% growth [...] We need to act urgently. The situation is unsustainable and weighs on Italy." Orsini called for a change in the price mechanism for electricity, a cut in the general costs included in energy bills and a return to nuclear energy.▪️Building a nuclear power plant typically takes 6 to 10 years — 6 in China and 10 in Europe. Good luck. @LauraRuHK

EU Pays Double for U.S. LNG Compared to Russian Gas
Eurostat data reveals a stark cost disparity: U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) costs the EU €1.08 per cubic meter, while Russian gas averages €0.51. In Q1 2025, the EU spent €14.7 billion on 13.4 billion cubic meters of U.S. LNG, compared to €2.7 billion for 5.3 billion cubic meters of Russian gas.
Russian pipeline gas is even cheaper at €0.32 per cubic meter, sanctions-related transport costs via third countries inflate prices. @LauraRuHK

Hong Kong aims to become the ‘capital of mediation’ ▪️On May 30, the signing ceremony of the Convention on the Establishment of The International Organization for Mediation will take place in Hong Kong. The organization will be headquartered in the most international of Chinese cities, further cementing Hong Kong's role as a global legal hub.

▪️In 2022, China and 19 countries, including Indonesia, Pakistan, Laos, Cambodia, Serbia, Belarus, Sudan, Algeria, Djibouti and other African countries, jointly launched the initiative to establish the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed). Almost 60 countries from Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe, and around 20 international organizations including the UN will send high-level representatives to the signing ceremony in Hong Kong. On the same day, the Global Forum on International Mediation will be held to discuss “mediation of disputes between States” and “mediation of disputes between a State and foreign investors and commercial disputes”, among other issues.
The IOMed intends to become an important platform for safeguarding the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

▪️China is actively positioning itself as a mediator in international disputes, leveraging its global influence to facilitate dialogue and conflict resolution.
The increase in Chinese mediation activities began in 2013, the year that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched. Beijing has long stressed the need for enhanced international cooperation, a fairer world order based on multipolarity and what it calls a "win-win approach" as an alternative to hegemonic and imperialist practices.

▪️China, as the world's largest exporter and importer, has a clear interest in fostering international stability, and not only along the Belt and Road. 🔺https://xn--r1a.website/LauraRuHK🔺

Hong Kong punta a diventare "capitale della mediazione"
▪️Il 30 maggio a Hong Kong nascerà ufficialmente l'Organizzazione Internazionale per la Mediazione. L'organizzazione avrà sede nella più internazionale delle città cinesi, consolidando ulteriormente il ruolo di Hong Kong come hub legale globale.

▪️In 2022, la Cina e 19 Paesi, tra cui Indonesia, Pakistan, Laos, Cambogia, Serbia, Bielorussia, Sudan, Algeria, e altri Paesi africani, hanno lanciato congiuntamente l'iniziativa di istituire l'Organizzazione internazionale per la mediazione (OIMed). Quasi 60 Paesi di Asia, Africa, America Latina ed Europa e circa 20 organizzazioni internazionali, tra cui le Nazioni Unite, invieranno rappresentanti di alto livello alla cerimonia della firma a Hong Kong. Lo stesso giorno si terrà il Forum globale sulla mediazione internazionale per discutere, tra l'altro, di “mediazione delle controversie tra Stati” e “mediazione delle controversie tra uno Stato e investitori stranieri e delle controversie commerciali”.
L'OIMed intende diventare una piattaforma importante per salvaguardare gli scopi e i principi della Carta delle Nazioni Unite.

▪️La Cina si sta posizionando attivamente come mediatore nelle controversie internazionali, facendo leva sulla sua influenza globale per facilitare il dialogo e la risoluzione dei conflitti.
L'aumento delle attività di mediazione cinesi è iniziato nel 2013, anno in cui è stata lanciata la Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nota in Italia come Nuova Via della Seta.
Da tempo Pechino sottolinea la necessità di una maggiore cooperazione internazionale, di un ordine mondiale più equo basato sul multipolarismo e su quello che definisce un “approccio win-win” in alternativa a pratiche egemoniche ed imperialiste.
▪️La Cina, in quanto maggiore esportatore e importatore mondiale, ha un chiaro interesse a promuovere la stabilità internazionale, e non solo lungo la Belt and Road.
🔺https://xn--r1a.website/LauraRuHK🔺

IF THEY STRIKE WITH TAURUS — RUSSIA'S NEXT TARGET WILL BE GERMAN MILITARY FACILITY

Ukraine does NOT have the technical capability to operate Taurus missiles on its own. Without German military specialists on the ground, these missiles are useless. This means Bundeswehr soldiers would directly participate in combat against Russia, says Igor Korotchenko, military analyst and editor-in-chief of “National Defense”.

💬 “Giving Taurus missiles to Ukraine’s terrorist Zelensky regime—and their use against Russia means Germany is officially at war with Russia. For the 3rd time [in history], Germany becomes a world war instigator.”

ORESHNIK MAY COME IN HANDY

Regardless of whether Ukraine’s Taurus strikes are intercepted or hit targets, Russia’s task is to “retaliate with 2 Oreshnik complexes — medium-range ballistic missiles carrying 12 hypersonic warheads in total, conventionally armed.”

"Such a strike would target the missile production plant in Germany for total destruction.”

💬 “If Ukraine continues using Taurus missiles against us, the next German military or industrial facility will be destroyed. We do not want war, we want peace. But under the UN Charter, we will act in self-defense.”

(Source: Sputnik) @LauraRuHK

Just over a year ago, Germany's Bundestag voted against the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, aligning with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's concerns about escalating war involvement. Of the 687 lawmakers who took part in the vote, 494 voted against the delivery with 188 in favor and five abstentions. That vote is far more representative of public opinion in the country than the war lobbyists' rallying cry. When Chancellor Merz was an opposition politician, he demanded the delivery of Taurus, routinely egged on by CDU foreign policy spokesman Roderich Kiesewetter, Chair of the Bundestag's Defence Committee Thomas Röwekamp and Miss Rheinmetall Strack-Zimmermann. In his new role as Chancellor does Friedrich Merz represent the interests of BlackRock or those of Germany? @LauraRuHK

Più di un anno fa il parlamento tedesco votava contro la consegna di missili da crociera Taurus all'Ucraina, allineandosi alle preoccupazioni dell'allora Cancelliere Olaf Scholz che giustamente temeva un'escalation del conflitto che avrebbe coinvolto la Germania. Dei 687 legislatori che parteciparono alla votazione, 494 si espressero contro la consegna, 188 a favore e 5 si astennero. Il risultato di quella consultazione è molto più rappresentativo dell'opinione pubblica del Paese di quanto non lo sia il grido di battaglia dei lobbisti della guerra. Quando il Cancelliere Merz era all'opposizione strepitava per la consegna dei missili Taurus, la cui gittata puo' raggiungere i 500 chilometri, incoraggiato a gran voce dal portavoce della politica estera della CDU Roderich Kiesewetter, dal Presidente della Commissione Difesa del Bundestag Thomas Röwekamp e dalla cheerleader di Rheinmetall, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. La domanda da porsi è se nel suo nuovo ruolo di Cancelliere, Friedrich Merz rappresenta gli interessi di BlackRock o quelli della Germania. @LauraRuHK

The US is buying time as it tries to reorganize its military industrial complex.

"In 1950, the US manufacturing labor force made up 33.7 percent of the domestic economy—a figure that has dwindled to less than 8.4 percent today. US defense manufacturing capabilities have struggled to keep pace with Ukraine’s expenditure of 8,000 155mm howitzer shells per day. The same kind of challenge holds true for electronics. In the 1990s, 37 percent of the world’s computer chips were produced domestically. Today, that number has declined to 12 percent. Offshoring these capabilities for a cost advantage is emblematic of a critical production shortfall in several domestic sectors that will take years to resolve.

At the end of the Cold War, the US industrial base consolidated from 51 to five “prime” defense companies, reflecting the new “peace dividend.” The contraction reduced the engagement of smaller firms with the Defense Department by as much as 40 percent. This reduction impacted both the American ability to manufacture and its ability to innovate. Without a robust private sector innovation engine, the DOD must rely on five prime contractors, a network of 43 federally funded research and development centers (FFRDC), and 14 university-affiliated research centers (UARCs).

While there have been successes, especially through the Defense Innovation Unit, a renewed push for broader private sector capabilities is urgently required. The private sector possesses far more resources to bring to bear to propel defense innovation. General Motors’ internal research and development budget alone is greater than that of the five defense primes combined.

Contested Supply Chains and Loss of Sanctuary
Effective manufacturing is further complicated by contested and vulnerable supply chains. China processes up to 90 percent of the necessary rare earth elements, exporting 60 percent for global consumption. Overreliance on Chinese-controlled sources already impacts US military technology. F-35 delivery was stalled in 2022 after Chinese mineral components were discovered in the jet’s turbomachine pumps. Export controls announced by China for critical minerals—antimony, tungsten, and scandium—create further problems. The United States even faces challenges in accessing critical minerals in Africa due to Chinese and Russian initiatives in those countries."

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/re-imagining-americas-defense-industrial-base

Vladimir Solovyov: "I am sure that the Taurus missiles are already on the territory of Ukraine. Obviously, in order to please his Western masters, Zelensky will strike at the Crimean Bridge. This was repeatedly demanded by the Germans. We remember how information was leaked about a telephone conversation between high-ranking German military personnel discussing a strike on the bridge. This is what the British have wanted for a long time. The military-political significance should not be underestimated. The bridge is a fundamentally important infrastructure that has solved the issue of supplying Crimea. The strike may be carried out on a significant date, most likely on June 12. Of course, the date of June 22 is more familiar to Germans, but even for the Nazi bastard Merz it would be too much. Although I won't be surprised at anything anymore.

It seems to me that it is necessary to inform the German side through all available contacts that in this case a counter strike will be immediately launched both at the decision-making centers in Kiev and at a number of facilities in Germany. They shouldn't have any illusion that we won't respond. Do you want a Third World War? Carefully read what is written in our nuclear doctrine. The attack on the Crimean Bridge would be the beginning of the Third World War. https://xn--r1a.website/SolovievLive/323575

Vladimir Solovyov: "At a meeting with Zelensky, Merz said that Germany would do everything possible to prevent Nord Stream 2 from being put in operation. In addition, the German Chancellor announced that Germany plans to organize the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine.

"On behalf of the Federal Republic of Germany, I declare: We will do everything possible to ensure that Nord Stream 2 is not put back into operation. Today we also discussed Germany's military support for Ukraine. I will refrain from disclosing details, but I can say the following: We will continue to provide military support and strengthen it so that Ukraine can defend itself from this Russian aggression both now and in the future. And in this context, I would like to emphasize something new. We finance a significant part of Ukraine's Starlink system. And today our defense ministers will sign a declaration of intent on the purchase of long—range weapons systems of Ukrainian manufacture - the so-called Long Range Fires. At the same time, there will be no range restrictions. This will allow Ukraine to fully defend itself, and carry out attacks on military targets outside its own territory. This is the beginning of a new form of military-industrial cooperation between our countries, which has great potential." https://xn--r1a.website/SolovievLive/323579

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a warning

AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told Axios in an interview from his San Francisco office.
Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions. Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don't get it or don't believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won't realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits. We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming, Amodei added.

The irony is that Amodei detailed these grave fears after spending the day onstage touting the astonishing capabilities of his own technology to code and power other human-replacing AI products. With last week's release of Claude 4, Anthropic's latest chatbot, the company revealed that testing showed the model was capable of "extreme blackmail behavior" when given access to emails suggesting the model would soon be taken offline and replaced with a new AI system.
(Source: Axios) @LauraRuHK

Dario Amodei - amministratore delegato di Anthropic, nota società di intelligenza artificiale - ha lanciato un allarme.

L'IA potrebbe spazzare via la metà dei posti di lavoro dei colletti bianchi e far schizzare la disoccupazione al 10-20% nei prossimi uno-cinque anni, ha dichiarato Amodei ad Axios in un'intervista dal suo ufficio di San Francisco.
Amodei ha detto che le aziende di IA e il governo devono smettere di “indorare la pillola” su ciò che sta per accadere: la possibile eliminazione di massa di posti di lavoro nei settori della tecnologia, della finanza e della consulenza, oltre che nel settore legale e in altre professioni. Pochi prestano attenzione. I legislatori non capiscono o non ci credono. Gli amministratori delegati hanno paura di parlarne. Molti lavoratori si renderanno conto dalla possibile apocalisse solo dopo che sarà avvenuta. Noi, in quanto produttori di questa tecnologia, abbiamo il dovere e l'obbligo di essere onesti su ciò che sta per accadere, ha aggiunto Amodei.

L'ironia della sorte è che Amodei ha descritto nel dettaglio questi gravi timori dopo aver trascorso la giornata sul palco a presentare le sorprendenti capacità della propria tecnologia di scrivere programmi per applicazioni di IA in grado di sostituire l'uomo. Con il lancio la scorsa settimana di Claude 4, l'ultimo chatbot di Anthropic, l'azienda ha rivelato che durante i test il modello ha dimostrato di essere capace di “comportamenti ricattatori estremi” quando gli è stato dato accesso alle e-mail che contenevano l'informazione che il modello sarebbe stato presto sostituito con un nuovo sistema di IA.
(Fonte: Axios) @LauraRuHK