Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Iranian air defenses have shot down three American UAVs above Bandar Abbas, including one MQ-9A "Reaper" UCAV.

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โค57๐Ÿ”ฅ13๐Ÿ‘Ž6๐Ÿคก4โคโ€๐Ÿ”ฅ2๐Ÿ‘2๐Ÿคฉ2
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- There appears to be 2 fires on Iran's Kharg Island. โžก๏ธ Kharg Island provides a seaport for the export of up to 90% of Iran's oil products @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- It is irregular for NASA firms to show Kharg Island as having thermal anomalies. Note that this does not mean they were targeted by airstrikes.

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#NEW ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- A source familiar with the talks between the high-level Iranian delegation and Qatari officials told Al-Jazeera that Qatari mediation has led to an understanding with the U.S. on Iran's frozen financial assets. With this key issue now resolvedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Tasnim News Agency says that an informed source has confirmed that progress has been made during the latest round of talks, with steps forward achieved.

โžก๏ธ Iran is insisting that a portion of its frozen assets must be released as part of the process, continuing to cite a lack of trust in the U.S. and a desire to secure concrete, guaranteed outcomes.

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#BREAKING
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๏ธ- U.S. Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins has told Fox News that U.S. forces conducted "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran today, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. "U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire," Hawkins said.
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๐Ÿคฌ46๐Ÿ”ฅ10โค7๐Ÿ‘2๐Ÿคฏ2๐Ÿคก2๐Ÿ–•2๐Ÿ‘1๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿ˜ข1
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#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๏ธ- U.S. Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins has told Fox News that U.S. forces conducted "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran today, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. "U.S. Centralโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ- Fox News has given additional details on what CENTCOM spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said moments ago:
2 Iranian boats were caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a senior senior US official told Fox. The US military eliminated both IRGC vessels and also struck at a SAM (surface to air missile) site in Bandar Abbas that was targeting US warplanes.
โ€œThese were defensive strikes.โ€ They do not indicate ceasefire is over, according to two well placed sources.
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๐Ÿคก46โค9๐Ÿ‘7๐Ÿ‘Ž6๐Ÿ‘6๐Ÿ’ฉ5๐Ÿคฌ3๐Ÿ”ฅ1๐Ÿ˜1๐Ÿ‘Œ1๐Ÿ–•1
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- An American official has told Al-Jazeera that Iran "attempted to attack US forces over the past 24 hours," though no American personnel were injured as a result of the attacks.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ๏ธ- Satellite imagery shows at least 60 IRGC Navy fast attack craft just south of Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz today, around the area of which two IRGC Navy boats were targeted by U.S. forces earlier today, killing at least 4 IRGC personnel.
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๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari has dismissed reports claiming Qatar "offered" $12 billion to Iran to secure a deal as completely false, describing them as being circulated by parties attempting to sabotage the deal and undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts.

โžก๏ธ Al Ansari defended Qatar's well-established diplomatic role, calling such narratives "desperate attempts to tarnish Qatar's reputation as a trusted international peace facilitator."

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Currently, fighter jets are reportedly flying eastward over central Israel.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all โ€” Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before โ€”โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- Qatari officials have stated that Doha has no current plans to join the Abraham Accords, adding that any Qatari engagement with Israel would focus solely on the resolution of the Palestinian issue. Pakistan has also rejected the idea of joining the Accords.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- A KC-135R Stratotanker bearing extensive shrapnel damage was spotted over the weekend at RAF Mildenhall in the UK, making it at least the second such aircraft to transit through the installation with war damage.

โžก๏ธ Photographs, taken by aviation photographer Andrew McKelvey, show heavy shrapnel damage to the aircraft's tail, vertical stabilizer, and flaps, with the refueling boom missing entirely. Temporary repair patches cover the affected areas.

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๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ชโŒ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ - Thousands of Shi'ites Pakistani workers deported from the UAE without their personal belonging and saving.

The deportation 'trial' typically lasts minutes, with deportees being questioned about their tie to Iran before being detained and swiftly deported. Affected workers were not allowed to retrieve their luggage and lost access to their saving account.

Thousands of Pakistani workers were deported since the beginning of the War in Iran though advocacy groups estimate that the figure could be much higher. While crackdown on Shi'ites in the UAE is nothing new, the deportation has rapidly accelerated during the war in Iran.

Pakistan is home to 40 million Shi'ites, the world second largest Shi'ite population. Approximately 1.8 million Pakistanis work in the Emirates, accounting for $6 billion worth of remittance annually.

The Pakistani government is closely monitoring the situation but has not raised the issue to the Emirates for "diplomatic reasons", according to a senior official interviewed by Reuters. Pakistan is currently mediating the negotiation between US and Iran to end the conflict.

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๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บโŒ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ - The war in Ukraine is heating up as Moscow takes a series of escalatory actions aimed at deterring Ukraine and Europe from increasingly audacious attacks.

โžก๏ธ A series of drone incursions occured over the Baltic states, scrambling air defense and even causing damage. This followed Russian accusation that these states allowed Ukrainiam drones to use their airspace for strikes on Russian northern region.

โžก๏ธ A British spy plane was intercepted while gathering intelligence over the Black Sea by two Russian jets. The jets flew within 6m of the RAF spycraft, endangering British personnel. Up until now, NATO reconnaissance planes have been able to fly over the Black Sea unchallenged to provide Ukraine with intelligence.

โžก๏ธ Russia launched a devastating strike on Kyiv on May 24, using two hypersonic Oreshniks and almost a hundred of other missiles, in addition to hundreds of drones. The Kremlin is threatening more strikes on Kyiv and have issued an evacuation notice for foreign nationals residing in the city.

Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov provided a stark warning on April 18.
There is a chorus of voices saying that Russia should not be fearedโ€ฆ some may even call us a paper tiger... But I would warn against such parallels. We have, in our national character, such a quality as patience. We say: โ€˜God endured, and told us to endure as well.โ€™ But at some point, patience runs out.
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๐Ÿ”ฅ37โค10๐Ÿคก10๐Ÿ‘5๐Ÿ˜3๐ŸŒ2๐Ÿค”1
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a source close to the Iranian negotiation team cited by Tasnim, Iran's 14-article memorandum of understanding calls for the release of approximately $24 billion in frozen assets during negotiations.

โžก๏ธ Iran is insisting that half ($12 billion) be made available at the moment the memorandum is announced, with the remainder transferred within 60 days. Ghalibaf's trip to Qatar was aimed at securing an understanding on implementing this demand and removing obstacles to accessing the first $12 billion, with the source describing the visit as producing good results.

โžก๏ธ The source stressed that Iran is proceeding with great caution given past experiences, citing the failure to fully access previously agreed funds held in South Korea and Qatar.

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#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ๏ธ- U.S. Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins has told Fox News that U.S. forces conducted "self-defense strikes" in southern Iran today, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. "U.S. Centralโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- The IRGC announced that its air defense units shot down a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone after it entered Iranian airspace near Bandar Abbas, following what it described as "precise intelligence monitoring."

โžก๏ธ The IRGC also fired upon an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone and an F-35 fighter jet, forcing both to withdraw from Iranian airspace. The IRGC warned against further ceasefire violations by U.S. forces and stated that it considers the right to retaliate "legitimate and definite."

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