The Fed is moving ahead of the curve to contain inflation, which in turn will lead to consumption contraction within 12 months.
Particularly discretionary items, the consumer is done; paychecks + lockdowns created an unsustainable boom, and now excess savings are getting depleted.
Next consumer cycle will be after we get a CAPEX boom resulting from decentralization - boosted by policy and geopolitics - bringing jobs to the west which will in turn boost wages and consumption, and restore the middle class.
@Forecast432Hz
Particularly discretionary items, the consumer is done; paychecks + lockdowns created an unsustainable boom, and now excess savings are getting depleted.
Next consumer cycle will be after we get a CAPEX boom resulting from decentralization - boosted by policy and geopolitics - bringing jobs to the west which will in turn boost wages and consumption, and restore the middle class.
@Forecast432Hz
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Investment implications from current macroeconomic and Fed Policy: The Fed is tightening to curb inflation while consumer spending decelerates due to demand destruction, fading fiscal stimulus and excess savings. Expect a contraction in consumer spending within the next 12 months.
However, many asset prices are already pricing recession; Nasdaq -18% and S&P500 -11% from peak, vs -24% median during recessions. Markets are forward looking and we are closer to the bottom than we are to the top. Based on previous patterns, expect 10% additional S&P500 downside before bottoming, but acknowledge the many stocks are attractively priced at current levels for the long term.
Expect secular growth from the B2B space in the form of high tech CAPEX spending, which will likely increase as the world becomes decentralized. Beneficiaries include materials, energy, clean energy, semiconductors, cybersecurity and cloud. @Forecast432Hz
However, many asset prices are already pricing recession; Nasdaq -18% and S&P500 -11% from peak, vs -24% median during recessions. Markets are forward looking and we are closer to the bottom than we are to the top. Based on previous patterns, expect 10% additional S&P500 downside before bottoming, but acknowledge the many stocks are attractively priced at current levels for the long term.
Expect secular growth from the B2B space in the form of high tech CAPEX spending, which will likely increase as the world becomes decentralized. Beneficiaries include materials, energy, clean energy, semiconductors, cybersecurity and cloud. @Forecast432Hz
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*Tesla Halts Gigafactory Shanghai For Two Days Amid COVID Surge.
@Forecast432Hz
@Forecast432Hz
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Pepe Escobar: This is Putin today, essentially announcing that oligarchs in Russia are doomed.
@Forecast432Hz
@Forecast432Hz
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*Kremlin says Biden's comments regarding Putin being a 'war criminal' are 'unacceptable and unforgiveable'. @Forecast432Hz
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*BREAKING: PUTIN SAYS US FUNDED BIOLABS IN UKRAINE WERE EXPERIMENTING WITH STRAINS OF CORONAVIRUS.
@Forecast432Hz
@Forecast432Hz
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*OIL MARKE: Quite odd for the U.S. Congress to held hearings about high gasoline prices, and no call upon executives from Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and Phillips 66. One needs a refinery to turn crude into gasoline. What a fucking joke...
@Forecast432Hz
@Forecast432Hz
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* BREAKING: New Iran Deal Lets Russia Cash in on $10 Billion Contract To Build Nuke Sites -- Biden admin will waive sanctions so Russia's top energy firm can build contested Iranian nuke plant, enriching Moscow even as Ukraine sanctions bite.
This is unbelievable... @Forecast432Hz
This is unbelievable... @Forecast432Hz
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Alan MacLeod: The Economist has finally found a war it doesn't like.
@Forecast432Hz
@Forecast432Hz
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Putin's summary just said
We live in a false world
Press freedom in the West is fake
- the west is arrogant
We don't aim to occupy Ukraine
The weapon of Western sanctions rebounded negatively against it
We won't give up and we won't kneel to the west
The Kremlin says Biden's description of Putin as a war criminal is unacceptable by a country that killed thousands with its bombs. @Forecast432Hz
We live in a false world
Press freedom in the West is fake
- the west is arrogant
We don't aim to occupy Ukraine
The weapon of Western sanctions rebounded negatively against it
We won't give up and we won't kneel to the west
The Kremlin says Biden's description of Putin as a war criminal is unacceptable by a country that killed thousands with its bombs. @Forecast432Hz
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*More Than One-Third Of Americans Would Risk Nuclear War Over Ukraine
*Only about 40% of people who are eligible have gotten a COVID booster shot
The similarities of these stats are probably just a coincidence, and both population segments practice critical thinking consistently. @Forecast432Hz
*Only about 40% of people who are eligible have gotten a COVID booster shot
The similarities of these stats are probably just a coincidence, and both population segments practice critical thinking consistently. @Forecast432Hz
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*HB 1022, Ivermectin would become available at pharmacies by standing order, adopted by N.H. House by roll call vote of 183-159. @Forecast432Hz
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*MarineTraffic identified 12 tankers in total as part of the โflotillaโ traveling with Russian oil to the U.S. Where the fuck is Schumer... @Forecast432Hz
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*Head of WHO Emergencies Programme, Dr. Mike Ryan:
โThe conditions we see in Ukraine are the worst possible ingredients for the amplification and the spread of infectious disease....โ.
@Forecast432Hz
โThe conditions we see in Ukraine are the worst possible ingredients for the amplification and the spread of infectious disease....โ.
@Forecast432Hz
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*The Ukrainian Investigative Bureau has arrested a Ukrainian diplomat while he was trying to smuggle $140,000, 68,000 euros, 12 kilograms of gold bars and 13.8 kilograms of gold jewelry.
Benny Johnson: That $14 billion congress just sent to Ukraine is going to end up EXACTLY like this.
@Forecast432Hz
Benny Johnson: That $14 billion congress just sent to Ukraine is going to end up EXACTLY like this.
@Forecast432Hz
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*DoD is expected to order 61 F-35s in the next budget, 33 less than what was planned. The reduction comes as the F-35 program is expected to exceed $770 billion since its inception later this year, when the federal government's fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. Lockheed investors wonโt be happy... @Forecast432Hz
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*Lindsey Graham wants us all to know that if John McCain were here he'd also want Putin to be assassinated. Connect the dots... @Forecast432Hz
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*GERMANY TO BORROW UP TO EU200B IN 2022 FOR DEFENSE AND CLIMATE
*ZELENSKIY: RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS
*Ukraine's Corn Harvest May Plunge By A Third, Estimates Show
@Forecast432Hz
*ZELENSKIY: RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS
*Ukraine's Corn Harvest May Plunge By A Third, Estimates Show
@Forecast432Hz
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*EXPOSED: Pentagon contractors worked in Ukrainian biolabs under $80 million program.
@Forecast432Hz
http://dilyana.bg/pentagon-contractors-worked-in-ukrainian-biolabs-under-80-million-program/
@Forecast432Hz
http://dilyana.bg/pentagon-contractors-worked-in-ukrainian-biolabs-under-80-million-program/
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